World Cup Drama
Scott Seidenberg recaps yesterday's World Cup action with the drama and excitement we saw from Mexico / England. Plus the US got great news about one of its key players for tonight's game vs Belgium. Plus the latest from NBA Summer League action and a day baseball best bet.
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⚽ ENGLAND SURVIVES AZTECA THRILLER
England 3, Mexico 2
The setting: Estadio Azteca — where Mexico had NEVER lost a World Cup game.
How It Unfolded
| Minute | Event |
|---|---|
| 36' | Jude Bellingham goal (1-0) |
| 38' | Bellingham again (2-0) |
| ~42' | Mexico pulls one back (2-1) — 3 goals in 6 minutes |
| 54' | ENGLAND RED CARD (Jarell Quansah sent off) |
| 60' | Harry Kane penalty after VAR (3-1) |
| 69' | Mexico penalty (3-2) |
| 90'+ | England survives corner barrage with 10 men |
Scott: "It was a drunk game. Everything from the goals, the penalties, the drama of playing down to 10 men. One of the best, most entertaining matches of this World Cup."
⚽ NORWAY SHOCKS BRAZIL
Norway 2, Brazil 1
Erling Haaland: 2 goals (79' and 90')
The history:
- Norway's FIRST quarterfinal ever
- Brazil's earliest World Cup exit since 1990
Next up: Norway vs England in the quarterfinals.
⚽ BALOGUN BAN RESCINDED
The USA Gets Its Striker Back
FIFA's ruling: Balogun's one-match ban is suspended — he's on probation for a year instead. He PLAYS tonight vs Belgium.
The Reactions
Belgium coach Rudi Garcia: "I didn't know that at the World Cup, the 5th of July is actually the first of April. It's April Fool's Day."
USA coach Mauricio Pochettino: "We were punished enough against Bosnia-Herzegovina to play with 10 men for 35 minutes on a decision that was completely unfair. It's 99.9% that we all agree it was an unfair card."
The Precedent
Scott: "Before people go crazy — there's precedent for this. Cristiano Ronaldo received a red card before the World Cup that would have suspended him for the first two group stage games. FIFA stepped in, gave him a probationary period, and suspended the match ban. This was a similar decision."
⚽ TONIGHT: USA vs BELGIUM
The Odds
| Market | Line |
|---|---|
| USA to advance | -116 |
| Belgium to advance | -106 |
| USA (3-way) | +160 |
| Belgium (3-way) | +170 |
| Draw | +240 |
The venue: Seattle — "One of the best soccer crowds we have. Massive home field advantage."
Scott's Best Bet
BTTS + Over 2.5 goals (including extra time) — parlayed at -135
Scott: "Read the fine print. At one book, this bet was 90 minutes only. The way I'm doing it on FanDuel — parlaying both legs INCLUDING extra time — if it's 1-1 going into extra time and somebody scores, you cash."
The Other Angles
| Bet | Odds | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| USA TT over 1.5 | +110 | Cashed in EVERY WC game |
| Balogun anytime (90 min) | +170 | The betting favorite |
| Balogun anytime (incl. ET) | +150 | The narrative bet |
Scott: "I jokingly tweeted Balogun anytime scorer would be the most popular bet tonight"
⚽ TODAY: PORTUGAL vs SPAIN
The Iberian Derby — AT&T Stadium, Arlington
| Market | Line |
|---|---|
| Spain to advance | -220 |
| Portugal to advance | +178 |
| Spain (3-way) | -115 |
| Portugal (3-way) | +310 |
| Draw | +260 |
⚽ GOLDEN BOOT RACE: THREE-WAY TIE
All at 7 Goals
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | Even |
| Leo Messi | +165 |
| Erling Haaland | +700 |
How to Handicap It
Scott: "Messi and Argentina have a game in hand — they still have to play their Round of 16 game. But France is the favorite to win it all, so Mbappé is favored to play a quarterfinal, semifinal, AND final. And for Haaland — if Norway is eliminated by England, is that it?"
Tournament odds: France +175, Argentina +450, England +500
🏀 SUMMER LEAGUE UNDERWAY
Darryn Peterson Debuts
The line: 28 points on 11-21 shooting in 27 minutes (Jazz beat Hawks 103-102 in OT)
Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer | +250 |
| Darryn Peterson | +320 |
| AJ Dybantsa | +430 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 25/1 |
Scott's Flyer: Lendeborg 25/1
Scott: "I was seeing clips of Lendeborg for the Warriors in the California Classic — a couple of blocks, 3-of-5 from three. In a system playing alongside Steph Curry, he's going to have opportunities. He might START as a rookie under Steve Kerr. I think it's a good flyer at 25/1."
Coming Thursday: Vegas Summer League begins — Mackenzie joins this week to talk Summer League betting.
LeBron watch: Still no announcement, but "we fully expect it to be the Cleveland Cavaliers."
⚾ TODAY: PHILLIES AT ROYALS (DAY GAME)
The Line
Phillies -185 (Cristopher Sanchez: 10-3, 2.00 ERA)
Total: 8.5 (+102 over)
THE JARRING SPLITS
Cristopher Sanchez, Home vs Road:
| Split | Starts | ERA | Record | Opp BA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home (Citizens Bank) | 11 | 0.86 | 7-1 | .188 |
| Road | 7 | 3.89 | 3-2 | .297 |
Scott: "Some of the most jarring splits we've seen in quite some time. I do NOT want to bet the Phillies in this game. But I don't have it in me to back Noah Cameron at +152 either. The over might be the play. Wait to see if it drops to 8 — and shop around."
📅 Coming Up
Tonight
- World Cup: USA vs Belgium (Seattle) — Balogun PLAYS
- World Cup: Portugal vs Spain (Arlington)
This Week
- Thursday: Vegas Summer League begins
- Mackenzie: Summer League betting preview
- Off the Board: Wednesday/Friday streams
This Month
- BettorDay App: Launch coming
- Tier structure announcement: Coming to BettorDay.com
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