MLB All Star Break & Home Run Derby Best Bets!
Scott Seidenberg breaks down some betting numbers as Major League Baseball hits its All Star Break. Plus Best Bets for tonight's Home Run Derby!
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⚾ ALL-STAR BREAK: THE FIRST-HALF BETTING AUDIT
THE STANDINGS
| Category | Teams |
|---|---|
| Best record | Dodgers 61-36 |
| Second best | Brewers 59-37 |
| Third | Rays 56-38 |
| Worst | Royals 38-59, Angels 38-59, Rockies 39-59 |
💰 MOST PROFITABLE TEAMS TO BET
The Money Board ($100/game)
| Team | Record | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 50-45 | +$1,179 | 11.6% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 56-38 | +$1,051 | 9% |
| Cardinals | — | +$871 | — |
| Nationals | — | +$847 | — |
| Brewers | — | +$847 | — |
The Money Pit
| Team | Record | Loss | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 40-57 | -$3,289 | -26.2% |
| Royals | — | -$2,299 | — |
| Blue Jays | — | -$1,667 | — |
Scott: "The Mets are the biggest disappointment in baseball. When you consider the payroll and expectations — pathetic."
📊 TOTALS & RUN LINES
Best OVER Teams
| Team | Record | % |
|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 55-37-5 | 59.8% |
| Twins | 56-38-3 | 59.6% |
| Pirates | — | 59.6% |
| White Sox | — | 58.5% |
Best UNDER Teams
Cardinals (51-38-6), Diamondbacks (51-39-6), Padres, Tigers — with the Phillies and Yankees close behind.
Run Line Leaders
| Team | RL Record | % |
|---|---|---|
| Rays | 55-38 | 59.1% |
| White Sox | 56-39 | 58.9% |
| Nationals | 57-40 | — |
Worst: Mariners 35-62, Phillies 38-59, Royals 40-57, Mets 41-56
🔥 THE INSANE RAYS STAT
When Tampa Is Favored: Lay the Run and a Half
| Stat | Number |
|---|---|
| Games favored | 66 |
| Straight up | 43-23 |
| -1.5 run line | 40-26 |
| Profit | +$2,614 |
Scott: "Of their 43 wins as a favorite, FORTY covered the run and a half. If the Rays are favored, just take the plus money and lay the -1.5. That's insane."
Dog Run Line (+1.5) Angles
Cash it: Braves 11-5, Guardians 28-13, Cardinals 38-21
Save your money: Mariners 1-8, Phillies 6-15, Royals 24-31
📐 THE PYTHAGOREAN REPORT
Teams Playing Over Their Heads (Luck+)
| Team | Actual | Expected | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | 54-43 | 47-50 | +7 |
| Rays | — | — | +6 |
| Padres | — | — | +5 |
Teams Due for Regression UP (Luck-)
| Team | Luck |
|---|---|
| Tigers | -7 |
| Angels | -5 |
| Red Sox | -4 (despite 9 straight wins!) |
| Yankees | -4 |
THE BET: Yankees +110 AL East
The setup: Yankees trail the Rays by 3 games. Rays -130, Yankees +110.
Scott: "The Rays are +6 in luck, the Yankees are -4. You always play to the back of your baseball card. If those numbers even out, the Yankees catch those three games and likely exceed them. Yankees +110 to win the AL East is the bet to be made right now."
🏆 THE FUTURES BET: ZACK WHEELER CY YOUNG +2200
The Snub Story
The timeline:
- Wheeler left off the All-Star roster
- Next start: 7 IP, 1 ER, 15 strikeouts vs Cincinnati
- Injury replacements announced — STILL not picked
- Friday: MLB finally calls. Wheeler: "Thanks, but no thanks."
- Sunday: 6 shutout innings, 2 hits, 10 Ks vs Tigers
The Stat That Says It All
Per Opta: There have been 15 occurrences EVER of a pitcher with 10+ wins, 10+ K/9, and an ERA below 2.15 entering the All-Star break.
Zack Wheeler is the ONLY one of the 15 not named an All-Star.
The Case at +2200
Wheeler's line: 10-1, 2.13 ERA (3rd in MLB), 0.89 WHIP, 108 Ks in 93 IP
| Pitcher | Odds | The Problem |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | -550 | Scratched Sunday (arm fatigue), skipping starts, Brewers will manage innings |
| Christopher Sanchez | +500 | 0.86 home ERA vs ~4.97 road — inconsistent |
| Zack Wheeler | +2200 | Doesn't qualify for leaderboards YET |
Scott's angles:
- The leaderboard invisibility: "Casual bettors browsing ESPN don't see Wheeler yet. In one more start he slides right in near the top — and the market corrects."
- The Miz math: "No pitcher should be -550 at the BREAK. He's already dealing with arm fatigue. The Brewers can just decide to limit his innings."
- The narrative: "When writers vote, they'll remember the snub — and the motivated Wheeler who put the Phillies on his back to a division title."
💣 HOME RUN DERBY TONIGHT: NEW FORMAT
The Field
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | +360 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | +380 |
| Munetaka Murakami (CWS) | +500 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | +600 |
| Jordan Walker (STL) | +600 |
| Jac Caglianone (KC) | +750 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 10/1 |
| Wilson Contreras (BOS) | 20/1 |
THE FORMAT CHANGE — NO MORE CLOCK
Round 1: 20 swings. No timer. No outs. Every swing counts. Hit a homer on your 20th swing? You get a 21st. Keep going until you miss.
Rounds 2 & Finals: 15 swings each.
Scott: "No more kids with the Gatorade bottle and the towel. They almost got it back to the 10 outs."
Best Bet #1: Bryce Harper (+600 can get +850)
Scott: "Familiarity with the sight lines, same pitcher Teoscar used when he won, and he won this event in his home ballpark in DC in 2018. The motivation of delivering for his fans."
Best Bet #2: Junior Caminero (+380)
The stat: Caminero has the FASTEST average bat speed in MLB among qualified hitters.
Scott: "Normally that's a guy who gets tired in a two-minute pressure cooker. But with 20 UNTIMED swings, he can be selective, take a deep breath, and swing 100% every time. This format BENEFITS Junior Caminero."
Best Bet #3: Round 1 OVER 74.5 Home Runs (-115)
Scott: "The book doesn't know how to price this. Eight players, 20 swings minimum. You're telling me they can't average 9.5 homers each? Someone hits 14, someone hits 5 — they should average 10. That's 80. And if somebody goes on a Bobby Abreu-esque run, the format allows for 21, 22, 23 swings..."
The Fades
- Murakami: "Just came off the IL — how motivated is he?"
- Jordan Walker: "The Cardinals literally told him to stop swinging with launch angle — and now he's in the DERBY? I don't know why he's doing this."
- Schwarber: The favorite for a reason (won last year's swing-off), but no value.
📅 Coming Up
Tonight
- Home Run Derby — Citizens Bank Park
Tomorrow
- MLB All-Star Game (total preview on the pod)
- World Cup SEMIFINAL: France vs Spain (FRA -155 to qualify)
Wednesday
- World Cup SEMIFINAL: England vs Argentina (ENG -135 to qualify)
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