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MLB Trade Deadline & 32 in 32: Indianapolis Colts

Scott Seidenberg breaks down the latest moves prior to tonights MLB Trade Deadline. Plus our 32 in 32 NFL Team Previews continue with the Indianapolis Colts.

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⚾ DEADLINE DAY: 6 PM ET

The Weekend Moves

TradeDetails
Skubal → DodgersTarik Skubal to LA for three prospects
Gausman → CubsKevin Gausman from Toronto — rotation help for the push
Peralta → RaysFreddy Peralta from the Mets
Mahle → BravesVeteran starter from San Francisco
Luis García Jr. → YankeesSlugging infielder from Washington

⚾ THE SKUBAL FALLOUT

The Package

Detroit gets: OF Zyhir Hope, RHP River Ryan, RHP Brady Smith

Why Everyone Is Furious

The prospect math that has baseball fuming:

PlayerMLB Top 100 Rank
Best player Detroit got (Zyhir Hope)25th
River Ryan68th
Dodgers KEPT: Josue De Paula4th
Mike Sirota11th
Eduardo Quintero19th
Emil Morales24th

Scott: "All FOUR of those guys rank higher than the highest player the Dodgers gave up. That's what frustrates people — the Dodgers got Tarik Skubal and didn't have to give up their top four prospects. How does that make sense? How does Skubal go to ANY team and the return isn't that org's top prospects?"


Dave Roberts Responds

Roberts: "It just seems like there's always blowback with us. People are passionate. There's nothing that we did that no one else couldn't have done. I just love our front office. We have to have the players to go pull something like this off — and we've still got arguably the top one, two, or three farm systems in baseball."


The World Series Board

TeamOdds
Dodgers+155
Yankees+600
Braves+850
Brewers+950

Scott: "Think about that drop-off between the Dodgers and the second favorite. The competitive balance concern is real — there's no salary cap, the Dodgers can outspend anybody, and players can dictate where they want to go."


⚾ THE YANKEES GET THEIR BAT

Luis García Jr., Age 26

StatNumber
SLG.560 — LEADS THE NATIONAL LEAGUE
AVG.283
HR23 (career high)
OPS.873
wRC+134
Games104

Scott: "Much-needed pop for a lineup decimated by injuries — no Judge, no Stanton, and recently no Bellinger."


⚾ Today's Slate

(Some of these could be affected by deadline moves.)

MatchupPitchersLine
Nationals @ PhilliesAaron NolaPHI -156
Cardinals @ YankeesCam SchlittlerNYY -199
Pirates @ BrewersBubba Chandler vs Brandon SproatMIL -149
Giants @ RangersLogan Webb vs Cal QuantrillSF -110
Dodgers @ CubsJustin Wrobleski vs Matthew BoydLAD -127
Blue Jays @ AstrosShane Bieber vs Cristian JavierHOU -135
Rays @ RockiesTB -163
Padres @ D-backsvs Brandon PfaadtARI -111

🏈 32 IN 32: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS


The Market

MarketLine
Make playoffs+156
Win total7.5 (over -140)
AFC South+360 (3rd)
Super Bowl50/1

Awards: Daniel Jones +1200 Comeback Player of the Year | Shane Steichen +2700 Coach of the Year


THE DANIEL JONES MOBILITY ANGLE

Cleared — But Is He Back?

The timeline: Jones cleared to practice last week, seven and a half months after a torn Achilles.

The data that matters:

MetricNumber
Designed QB runs last seasonTHREE (one was a bad snap he ran)
2020-2024 average28 designed runs per season
Scramble rate 20257th LOWEST in the NFL

(Sources: PFF, NFL Next Gen Stats)


THE BET

Scott: "Is his mobility back, or does he play the start of the season hesitant? Early on, I would be all over the UNDERS for Daniel Jones rushing attempts and rushing yardage. Fade the rushing props — there's going to be hesitancy with that injury.

Then after a few weeks, once he gets confidence in the Achilles and more rehab time, we might see more designed runs and more willingness to run. But not to start."


The Backup Battle

The competition: Riley Leonard vs Anthony Richardson — both split first-team reps when Jones was held out of OTAs.

Scott: "Whoever wins is the backup. Whoever loses might find themselves on a new team.

Injury note: WR Alec Pierce (ankle) will be limited for some — if not all — of training camp. "The Colts' offense is not going to be at 100% to start the season."


THE BRUTAL OPENING SLATE

WeekOpponent
1Baltimore Ravens
2at Kansas City
3Houston Texans
4Washington (in LONDON)
5at Pittsburgh  no bye after London

THE MIDDLE PLAY

Scott: "The over 7.5 is -140. I don't hate the UNDER 7.5. Here's the thinking: once they get through that opening slate, maybe they're 1-4 after five games. Think about what the adjusted win total becomes at that point — you could play a live over 5.5 and middle both bets. Win the under 7.5 AND the adjusted over."


📻 FALL CONTENT PLANS — LOCKED IN

The pod drops 5:45 AM ET, Monday through Friday.

DayGuestFocus
MondayMackenzie RiversFull NFL Sunday breakdown, biggest takeaways, early leans
TuesdayMichael FiddleMNF recap + look ahead
WednesdayDavid BearmanCFB + NFL insights, plus his golf card
ThursdayAJ HoffmanThursday night football — NFL and college
FridayScottTNF recap + repurposed Football Show audio geared to Saturday's college slate

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Premium members also get bets from Fiddle, Bearman, Hoffman, Fez, and more. Free play write-ups from contributors will still be available to everyone — especially college football and NFL props.


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