MLB Trade Deadline & 32 in 32: Indianapolis Colts
Scott Seidenberg breaks down the latest moves prior to tonights MLB Trade Deadline. Plus our 32 in 32 NFL Team Previews continue with the Indianapolis Colts.
Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe!
⚾ DEADLINE DAY: 6 PM ET
The Weekend Moves
| Trade | Details |
|---|---|
| Skubal → Dodgers | Tarik Skubal to LA for three prospects |
| Gausman → Cubs | Kevin Gausman from Toronto — rotation help for the push |
| Peralta → Rays | Freddy Peralta from the Mets |
| Mahle → Braves | Veteran starter from San Francisco |
| Luis García Jr. → Yankees | Slugging infielder from Washington |
⚾ THE SKUBAL FALLOUT
The Package
Detroit gets: OF Zyhir Hope, RHP River Ryan, RHP Brady Smith
Why Everyone Is Furious
The prospect math that has baseball fuming:
| Player | MLB Top 100 Rank |
|---|---|
| Best player Detroit got (Zyhir Hope) | 25th |
| River Ryan | 68th |
| — | — |
| Dodgers KEPT: Josue De Paula | 4th |
| Mike Sirota | 11th |
| Eduardo Quintero | 19th |
| Emil Morales | 24th |
Scott: "All FOUR of those guys rank higher than the highest player the Dodgers gave up. That's what frustrates people — the Dodgers got Tarik Skubal and didn't have to give up their top four prospects. How does that make sense? How does Skubal go to ANY team and the return isn't that org's top prospects?"
Dave Roberts Responds
Roberts: "It just seems like there's always blowback with us. People are passionate. There's nothing that we did that no one else couldn't have done. I just love our front office. We have to have the players to go pull something like this off — and we've still got arguably the top one, two, or three farm systems in baseball."
The World Series Board
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Dodgers | +155 |
| Yankees | +600 |
| Braves | +850 |
| Brewers | +950 |
Scott: "Think about that drop-off between the Dodgers and the second favorite. The competitive balance concern is real — there's no salary cap, the Dodgers can outspend anybody, and players can dictate where they want to go."
⚾ THE YANKEES GET THEIR BAT
Luis García Jr., Age 26
| Stat | Number |
|---|---|
| SLG | .560 — LEADS THE NATIONAL LEAGUE |
| AVG | .283 |
| HR | 23 (career high) |
| OPS | .873 |
| wRC+ | 134 |
| Games | 104 |
Scott: "Much-needed pop for a lineup decimated by injuries — no Judge, no Stanton, and recently no Bellinger."
⚾ Today's Slate
(Some of these could be affected by deadline moves.)
| Matchup | Pitchers | Line |
|---|---|---|
| Nationals @ Phillies | Aaron Nola | PHI -156 |
| Cardinals @ Yankees | Cam Schlittler | NYY -199 |
| Pirates @ Brewers | Bubba Chandler vs Brandon Sproat | MIL -149 |
| Giants @ Rangers | Logan Webb vs Cal Quantrill | SF -110 |
| Dodgers @ Cubs | Justin Wrobleski vs Matthew Boyd | LAD -127 |
| Blue Jays @ Astros | Shane Bieber vs Cristian Javier | HOU -135 |
| Rays @ Rockies | — | TB -163 |
| Padres @ D-backs | vs Brandon Pfaadt | ARI -111 |
🏈 32 IN 32: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Market
| Market | Line |
|---|---|
| Make playoffs | +156 |
| Win total | 7.5 (over -140) |
| AFC South | +360 (3rd) |
| Super Bowl | 50/1 |
Awards: Daniel Jones +1200 Comeback Player of the Year | Shane Steichen +2700 Coach of the Year
THE DANIEL JONES MOBILITY ANGLE
Cleared — But Is He Back?
The timeline: Jones cleared to practice last week, seven and a half months after a torn Achilles.
The data that matters:
| Metric | Number |
|---|---|
| Designed QB runs last season | THREE (one was a bad snap he ran) |
| 2020-2024 average | 28 designed runs per season |
| Scramble rate 2025 | 7th LOWEST in the NFL |
(Sources: PFF, NFL Next Gen Stats)
THE BET
Scott: "Is his mobility back, or does he play the start of the season hesitant? Early on, I would be all over the UNDERS for Daniel Jones rushing attempts and rushing yardage. Fade the rushing props — there's going to be hesitancy with that injury.
Then after a few weeks, once he gets confidence in the Achilles and more rehab time, we might see more designed runs and more willingness to run. But not to start."
The Backup Battle
The competition: Riley Leonard vs Anthony Richardson — both split first-team reps when Jones was held out of OTAs.
Scott: "Whoever wins is the backup. Whoever loses might find themselves on a new team.
Injury note: WR Alec Pierce (ankle) will be limited for some — if not all — of training camp. "The Colts' offense is not going to be at 100% to start the season."
THE BRUTAL OPENING SLATE
| Week | Opponent |
|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2 | at Kansas City |
| 3 | Houston Texans |
| 4 | Washington (in LONDON) |
| 5 | at Pittsburgh — no bye after London |
THE MIDDLE PLAY
Scott: "The over 7.5 is -140. I don't hate the UNDER 7.5. Here's the thinking: once they get through that opening slate, maybe they're 1-4 after five games. Think about what the adjusted win total becomes at that point — you could play a live over 5.5 and middle both bets. Win the under 7.5 AND the adjusted over."
📻 FALL CONTENT PLANS — LOCKED IN
The pod drops 5:45 AM ET, Monday through Friday.
| Day | Guest | Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Monday | Mackenzie Rivers | Full NFL Sunday breakdown, biggest takeaways, early leans |
| Tuesday | Michael Fiddle | MNF recap + look ahead |
| Wednesday | David Bearman | CFB + NFL insights, plus his golf card |
| Thursday | AJ Hoffman | Thursday night football — NFL and college |
| Friday | Scott | TNF recap + repurposed Football Show audio geared to Saturday's college slate |
Plus: The BettorDay Football Show
Thursdays, 2 PM ET / 11 AM PT — starting August 13th. One hour, live on YouTube and @better_day. Scott, Steve Fezzik, and Joshua Nunn (Duck).
Premium members also get bets from Fiddle, Bearman, Hoffman, Fez, and more. Free play write-ups from contributors will still be available to everyone — especially college football and NFL props.
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📅 Coming Up
32 in 32 This Week
- Tuesday: Jacksonville Jaguars
- Wednesday: Tennessee Titans
- Thursday: Denver Broncos (AFC West begins)
- Friday: Kansas City Chiefs
Tonight
- MLB Trade Deadline: 6 PM ET
August 13th
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