Aaron Donald Returns & 32 in 32: Miami Dolphins

Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers react to Aaron Donald coming out of retirement to rejoin the Rams. Plus the incredible Week 0 results from the College Football Trench Report and our 32 in 32 preview of the Miami Dolphins.

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🚨 AARON DONALD IS BACK

The Deal

One year, $20 million — up to $30 million with playoff incentives.

The market: Rams moved from +550 to +500 to win the Super Bowl.

Mackenzie: "I'm surprised the market moved as much as it did — I thought it was pretty much baked in. I guess it was pricing an 80% chance he'd come back, and now a little haircut since it's official.

I think he's going to be as good as any defensive player not named Myles Garrett on the other side of that line. He didn't show any signs of falling off — and now he has a two-year break to rest and recharge."

The Record

The Rams become the FIRST team in NFL history to start a season with two players who have each won MULTIPLE Defensive Player of the Year awards.

DPOY odds: Myles Garrett +400 (favorite). Aaron Donald: 100/1 

The usage question: "At 35 after two years off — is he an every-down player or a situational pass rusher? I think early in the season he's used sparingly, and by the playoffs he's an every-down defender."

🚫 THE COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR RANT

Aaron Donald Is +700. Do Not Do This.

Scott: "If anybody out there wants to bet Aaron Donald for Comeback Player of the Year at +700 — send me your money instead. I will book the bet, and I will also arrange for us to get together where I can kick you, and we'll call it a day. It's a donation to a sportsbook. They are going to laugh at you."

The AP's Own Memo

After Geno Smith and then Joe Flacco won it — "Flacco winning over a guy who DIED and came back to play" — the Associated Press sent a memo to its voters:

"The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury, or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season."

Scott, for the back of the room: "Resilience in the face of adversity — not retirement. Overcoming illness — not retirement. Physical injury — not retirement. Other circumstances that led him to miss playing time — not retirement.

Aaron Donald is essentially INELIGIBLE by the AP's own criteria."

📊 THE STAT THAT SHOULD SCARE RAMS BACKERS

(via Ben Fawkes, Yahoo Sports)

Over the past 30 years, the preseason favorite has had Super Bowl odds of +500 or shorter 20 times.

Those short favorites have gone 0-FOR-20.

Recent examples: Chiefs +500 (2024), Chiefs +450 (2021), Chiefs +450 (2020), Patriots +400 (2019).

⚖️ JOSH JACOBS ON THE COMMISSIONER'S EXEMPT LIST

The status: He cannot practice and cannot play, but he is getting paid, and if the team allows, he can be at the facility for treatment and meetings. Court date is in November — but the NFL doesn't have to wait for it.

⭐ THE PLAY: VIKINGS IN WEEK 1

Scott: "Packers at Minnesota, week one. Give me Minnesota on the moneyline or -1.5. Without Jacobs — and I'm already high on Minnesota and down on Green Bay — this is the best bet for me. We have to play the Vikings in week one."

Mackenzie: "He moved the needle for them. Running backs usually don't matter, they say — he was the exception when they got him from the Raiders. He was probably their second most important offensive player the last couple of years."

🏈 32 IN 32: MIAMI DOLPHINS

The Market

The exodus: Mike McDaniel gone (Jeff Hafley in). Tua gone (Malik Willis in). Jaylen Waddle gone. And more.

📉 THE DEAD CAP RECORD

$180 MILLION in dead cap.

Mackenzie: "That is a record by far. It's almost DOUBLE the record — last year the Saints were at $110 million. They are spending what used to be an entire salary cap just a few years ago on players who are not on the team."

The Historical Comp

Mackenzie: "I looked this up. Teams expected to win less than 30% of their games — going back to 2016, adjusting for the 16-to-17 game change:

On average they lose one game MORE than expected. And no team on that list of eight has won more than five games.

So you could book it — under 5.5 alternate is 8-0. No team has ever been expected to be this bad and been even decent. And Malik Willis — you read headlines saying 'they're giving him a real chance to be a franchise player.' They are giving him a real chance to play football this year. There is nothing about this team that will be the same in one or two years."

⚠️ THE WEEK 1 TRAP

Scott: "They may win week one against the Raiders. Think about what the alternate win total looks like then — does 3.5 go up to 4.5, and then you bet the under 4.5?"

Mackenzie: "That might be the time to jump in. We've seen it before"

Scott: "The Raiders beat the Patriots in week one LAST year. The Patriots went to the Super Bowl and the Raiders finished 3-14."

⭐ THE PLAY: DOLPHINS FOR FEWEST WINS (+270)

Scott: "The question is Miami or Arizona for the worst record — and honestly, Arizona is better than Miami.

Jacoby Brissett over Malik Willis, Jeremiyah Love and Achane could be very close. But Marvin Harrison Jr. is better than any receiver on the Dolphins, and McBride is the best tight end in the league. On offense, the Cardinals are so much better. So the bet might be the DOLPHINS for the worst record, not the Cardinals."

📊 WEEK 0: THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL TRENCH REPORT DEBUT

The caveat: week zero ran entirely on 2025 priors with roster turnover and portal adjustments; replacement players got a generic baseline grade. Real 2026 data changes everything from here.

⭐ THE RUSHING MISMATCHES: 4-0

The one thrown out: USC/San Jose State — soft data points and too many generic replacement grades. "USC finished with 164 rushing yards as a 38.5-point favorite, so it probably went under and this was probably 5-0. I'm grading it 4-0."

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The NFL Precedent

Last season's NFL Trench Report: the top five rushing mismatches, playing RB1 over their rushing prop: 43-29.

⭐ THE FUTURES PLAY: MEMPHIS TO MAKE THE PLAYOFF (10/1)

Scott: "I thought UNLV was their biggest hurdle. Even if they lose at Boise State in two weeks, they can run the rest of the schedule undefeated.

If they win the American and they're a one-loss team whose only loss is on the road at Boise State — and Boise might have two or three losses...

Boise is the favorite among the Group of Six, but that Memphis win was a statement. Ten to one is pretty good."

📅 Coming Up

Tomorrow

• Michael Fiddle + 32 in 32 continues with the New York Jets.

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