> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bettorday.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Monday, August 31st, 2026 - URL: https://www.bettorday.com/monday-august-31st-2026/ - Published: 2026-08-31T10:00:19.000Z - Updated: 2026-08-31T10:00:18.000Z - Author: Scott Seidenberg - Tags: Newsletter ## Aaron Donald Returns & 32 in 32: Miami Dolphins *Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers react to Aaron Donald coming out of retirement to rejoin the Rams. Plus the incredible Week 0 results from the College Football Trench Report and our 32 in 32 preview of the Miami Dolphins.* [![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/07/NEW-POD-COVER.png)](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe! [Listen ](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) ## 🚨 AARON DONALD IS BACK ### The Deal **One year, $20 million — up to $30 million with playoff incentives.** **The market:** Rams moved from **+550 to +500** to win the Super Bowl. **Mackenzie:** "**I'm surprised the market moved as much as it did** — I thought it was pretty much baked in. I guess it was pricing an 80% chance he'd come back, and now a little haircut since it's official. **I think he's going to be as good as any defensive player not named Myles Garrett** on the other side of that line. He didn't show any signs of falling off — **and now he has a two-year break to rest and recharge.**" --- ### The Record **The Rams become the FIRST team in NFL history to start a season with two players who have each won MULTIPLE Defensive Player of the Year awards.** **DPOY odds:** Myles Garrett **+400 (favorite)**. Aaron Donald: **100/1** **The usage question:** "At 35 after two years off — **is he an every-down player or a situational pass rusher?** I think early in the season he's used sparingly, and by the playoffs he's an every-down defender." --- # 🚫 THE COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR RANT ### Aaron Donald Is +700\. Do Not Do This. **Scott:** "**If anybody out there wants to bet Aaron Donald for Comeback Player of the Year at +700 — send me your money instead.** I will book the bet, and I will also arrange for us to get together where I can kick you, and we'll call it a day. **It's a donation to a sportsbook. They are going to laugh at you.**" --- ### The AP's Own Memo After Geno Smith and then Joe Flacco won it — "**Flacco winning over a guy who DIED and came back to play**" — the Associated Press sent a memo to its voters: > *"The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by *overcoming illness, physical injury, or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season.*"* **Scott, for the back of the room:** "Resilience in the face of adversity — **not retirement.** Overcoming illness — **not retirement.** Physical injury — **not retirement.** Other circumstances that led him to miss playing time — **not retirement.** **Aaron Donald is essentially INELIGIBLE by the AP's own criteria.**" --- ## 📊 THE STAT THAT SHOULD SCARE RAMS BACKERS *(via Ben Fawkes, Yahoo Sports)* **Over the past 30 years, the preseason favorite has had Super Bowl odds of +500 or shorter 20 times.** **Those short favorites have gone 0-FOR-20.** **Recent examples:** Chiefs +500 (2024), Chiefs +450 (2021), Chiefs +450 (2020), Patriots +400 (2019). --- ## ⚖️ JOSH JACOBS ON THE COMMISSIONER'S EXEMPT LIST **The status:** He **cannot practice and cannot play**, but he is getting paid, and if the team allows, he can be at the facility for treatment and meetings. **Court date is in November — but the NFL doesn't have to wait for it.** ### ⭐ THE PLAY: VIKINGS IN WEEK 1 **Scott:** "Packers at Minnesota, week one. **Give me Minnesota on the moneyline or -1.5.** Without Jacobs — and I'm already high on Minnesota and down on Green Bay — **this is the best bet for me. We have to play the Vikings in week one.**" **Mackenzie:** "He moved the needle for them. **Running backs usually don't matter, they say — he was the exception when they got him from the Raiders.** He was probably their second most important offensive player the last couple of years." --- # 🏈 32 IN 32: MIAMI DOLPHINS ## The Market | Market | Line | | -------------------------- | -------------------------------------- | | **Win total** | **3.5** (over -140) | | **Fewest wins in the NFL** | **+270 (2nd favorite)** behind Arizona | **The exodus:** Mike McDaniel gone (Jeff Hafley in). Tua gone (Malik Willis in). Jaylen Waddle gone. And more. --- ## 📉 THE DEAD CAP RECORD **$180 MILLION in dead cap.** **Mackenzie:** "**That is a record by far. It's almost DOUBLE the record** — last year the Saints were at $110 million. **They are spending what used to be an entire salary cap just a few years ago on players who are not on the team.**" --- ## The Historical Comp **Mackenzie:** "I looked this up. **Teams expected to win less than 30% of their games** — going back to 2016, adjusting for the 16-to-17 game change: **On average they lose one game MORE than expected. And no team on that list of eight has won more than five games.** **So you could book it — under 5.5 alternate is 8-0.** No team has ever been expected to be this bad and been even decent. And Malik Willis — you read headlines saying **'they're giving him a real chance to be a franchise player.' They are giving him a real chance to play football this year. There is nothing about this team that will be the same in one or two years.**" --- ## ⚠️ THE WEEK 1 TRAP **Scott:** "**They may win week one against the Raiders.** Think about what the alternate win total looks like then — **does 3.5 go up to 4.5, and then you bet the under 4.5?**" **Mackenzie:** "That might be the time to jump in. **We've seen it before**" **Scott:** "**The Raiders beat the Patriots in week one LAST year. The Patriots went to the Super Bowl and the Raiders finished 3-14.**" --- ## ⭐ THE PLAY: DOLPHINS FOR FEWEST WINS (+270) **Scott:** "The question is Miami or Arizona for the worst record — **and honestly, Arizona is better than Miami.** **Jacoby Brissett over Malik Willis**, **Jeremiyah Love and Achane could be very close.** But **Marvin Harrison Jr. is better than any receiver on the Dolphins, and McBride is the best tight end in the league.** On offense, the Cardinals are so much better. **So the bet might be the DOLPHINS for the worst record, not the Cardinals.**" --- # 📊 WEEK 0: THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL TRENCH REPORT DEBUT *The caveat: week zero ran entirely on 2025 priors with roster turnover and portal adjustments; replacement players got a generic baseline grade. Real 2026 data changes everything from here.* --- ## ⭐ THE RUSHING MISMATCHES: 4-0 | Flagged Play | Result | | ------------------------------------------------------------ | --------------- | | **Hawaii team rushing UNDER 67.5** | **46 yards** ✅ | | **Ousmane Kromah OVER 79.5 rush yards** *(premium play)* | **115 yards** ✅ | | **Memphis team rushing OVER 140.5** | **195 yards** ✅ | | **North Carolina team rushing UNDER 119.5** *(premium play)* | **90 yards** ✅ | **The one thrown out:** USC/San Jose State — soft data points and too many generic replacement grades. "USC finished with 164 rushing yards as a 38.5-point favorite, so **it probably went under and this was probably 5-0\. I'm grading it 4-0.**" *Bettor Day Insider & Premium Members get Full Access to Weekly Trench Reports in both the NFL & College Football.* [**See both tiers →**](https://bettorday.com/membership/?ref=bettorday.com) ### The NFL Precedent **Last season's NFL Trench Report:** the top five rushing mismatches, playing **RB1 over their rushing prop: 43-29.** --- ## ⭐ THE FUTURES PLAY: MEMPHIS TO MAKE THE PLAYOFF (10/1) **Scott:** "**I thought UNLV was their biggest hurdle.** Even if they lose at Boise State in two weeks, they can run the rest of the schedule undefeated. **If they win the American and they're a one-loss team whose only loss is on the road at Boise State** — and Boise might have two or three losses... Boise is the favorite among the Group of Six, **but that Memphis win was a statement. Ten to one is pretty good.**" --- ## 📅 Coming Up ### Tomorrow - **Michael Fiddle** \+ 32 in 32 continues with the New York Jets. --- ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/08/app-promo-newsletter-horizontal.png) **The Bettor Day app is now available on BOTH** [**Apple**](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/bettor-day/id6783427144%20Bettor%20Day?ref=bettorday.com) **and** [**Google Play**](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.bettorday.app&ref=bettorday.com) --- [ Bettor Day Exclusive Sportsbook Promos Promo Codes, Unlocked For You We've partnered with top sportsbooks to bring exclusive sign-up offers to the Bettor Day community. Offers vary by location — **see what's live in your state.** Check Offers In Your State → 21+ • For entertainment purposes only • Please bet responsibly ](https://www.vaultsportshq.com/preferred-books/bettorday?ref=bettorday.com)