NFL Preseason Dogs & 32 in 32: Atlanta Falcons

Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers talk about the underdogs killing it in the NFL Preseason so far. Does it continue for Week 3? Plus a season long player prop over? And our 32 in 32 preview of the Atlanta Falcons.

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🏈 THE DOGS ARE 25-7

Through Two Weeks of Preseason

Underdogs ATS: 25-7!

Mackenzie: "That's a monster. If it were the first round of the NCAA tournament and you had a 25-7 trend, it's all anybody could talk about."

Sunday's closer: Titans 19, Seahawks 16 — Seattle covers as a 3.5-point dog (available as high as +4.5, closed +3 many places). "Good teams win, great teams cover."

Mackenzie: "What was interesting is the Seahawks pretty much covered in the FIRST QUARTER. They were never giving away a 13-point lead, even though you'd think the favored team would have starters out more — and that's what the market was reacting to."

🔑 WHY THE DOGS KEEP WINNING: JOINT PRACTICES

The Titans Case Study

The setup: Cam Ward went 20 of 26 with two touchdowns against the Seahawks' ones in Friday's joint practice.Robert Saleh said his starters would play 20-25 snaps. The market shot from Titans -2 to -4.5.

Scott's read: "If Cam Ward looked that good in practice Friday, you've seen enough. There's no reason to play him extended time — the worst thing you can do is erase all the positive vibes with a subpar performance."

What happened: "He had a subpar performance. He was not good. The Titans looked terrible with their starters. The Seahawks, who didn't start any starters, dominated them in the first half."

The Structural Explanation

Scott: "Every coach will tell you they get more out of joint practices because it's a controlled environment. Someone comes close to the quarterback, you blow the whistle. You script it with the opposing coach — 'we want third and longs today, we want red zone today.' In a preseason game you don't know if someone gets overzealous and takes a shot at your quarterback. These guys are trying to make rosters.

I think the increase in joint practices around the league is WHY underdogs have dominated. The books may be pricing these thinking the starters will play a bit — but coaches are saying 'we got our work in, they'll warm up and that's it.'

🎯 EVERYTHING CHANGES IN WEEK 3

The Data Since 2021 (3-Game Preseason Era)

Week 3 Favorites

Why?

Mackenzie: "It's all pricing motivation. The market might know a player is starting — it doesn't know he's going to try hard. Week three is more like week four in the old system. Which coaches are playing just to not get anybody hurt, and which have real battles to settle? It's more identifiable — not who's playing, but who's going in with an intention to WIN."

Scott's two additions:

1. "We now have two weeks of data on the backups. You didn't know what the third and fourth-string quarterbacks would do — now you've seen them. Jack Strand from the D-III school looked incredible for Atlanta in week two. Maybe Jack Strand is why the Falcons are favored in week three."
2. "Week three coincides with WEEK ZERO of college football. With the books caring more about the higher limits and liquidity in college football, there's more attention paid there — and maybe more pricing inefficiencies in preseason week three. So the team that should be favored ends up closing as the favorite regardless, and the steam move actually works."

⭐ THE WEEK 3 BOUNCE-BACK ANGLE

Teams that lost their first TWO preseason games: 11-5 ATS in week three, covering by 6.7 points per game.

Mackenzie: "The team that needs to get off the snide generally does."

The 0-2 teams to target: Dolphins, Browns, Texans, Chiefs, Eagles, Saints, Seahawks

🚨 THE ASHTON JEANTY SCARE

The Prayer Circle

What happened: Jeanty went down diving for a ball out of his reach and couldn't put weight on his leg. He was helped off — and Raiders teammates huddled up in a prayer circle.

Scott: "When I read that, I'm thinking he's out for the year. I don't care how religious you are — you don't stop practice for a prayer circle if he just rolled his ankle."

The late report: An ankle sprain — severity unknown, possibly a high ankle sprain. He'll miss time, but it is NOT considered season-ending.

🎯 THE MARKET GRAB (AND A HOUSE RULES LESSON)

Scott: "The sicko in me — as soon as I saw the report on Twitter, I looked for any book with Jeanty season-long props. I got under 975 rushing yards at a local. Every sportsbook took him off the board immediately."

Mackenzie: "That is EXACTLY his number from his first season — 975.5 — where he had bangs and bruises but played every game at just 3.7 yards per carry. Maybe Kubiak has better history with the run, but he also has a history of using a lot of different backs. And with the prayer-circle ankle, I'd be surprised if he's 100% in week one."

⚠️ THE HOUSE RULES DETAIL

Scott: "DraftKings, FanDuel — as long as the player plays ONE snap during the regular season, your bet is active.He doesn't have to play week one.

So if Jeanty misses a month and then comes back, your under 975 is golden. That's the reason unders will always be the profitable way to go with season-long player props."

📉 THE CASE FOR SEASON-LONG UNDERS

Mackenzie: "Theoretically, if there's a profitable side every year, they'd change the price until there isn't. But the psychology of people wanting to bet overs and root for their teams and players is so strong. Maybe one year it's 50/50 — most years it's 52-48 for the under, if not better."

Scott: "There are so many ways to cash an under — performance, injury, game script."

🚫 THE DUMB REASON TO BET AN OVER

Scott: "I've heard respected people give an asinine reason: take the season-long number, divide by 17, and say 'all he has to do is go over X yards a game.'

No. First, you can't assume 17 games — very few players play all 17. Second, every game script is different. There are games where you're up three touchdowns and running with backups in. Games where you're down four scores and never run. Bad weather games. All 17 games are not created equal. You cannot justify an over by dividing by 17."

✅ THE RIGHT REASON: FIND WHAT THE MARKET ISN'T PRICING

⭐ THE PLAY: SAQUON BARKLEY OVER 1,099.5 RUSHING YARDS

The setup: New Eagles OC Sean Mannion — from the McVay/Shanahan tree — wants more under-center snaps for Jalen Hurts, more play action, run heavy.

The Split That Makes It

Last season overall: 280 attempts, 4.1 YPC, +66 rushing yards over expected, just over 1,100 yards.

Scott: "He is a much better runner when he has time to pick his lanes with the quarterback under center. With Mannion calling more under-center plays, that is something the market is not pricing into his season-long rushing prop."

📊 The Counterweight to Know

Mackenzie: "Drives per game are at the lowest of the play-by-play era — 10.7, then 10.5. You can have a really efficient offense, but if you're matriculating the ball down the field, sometimes you don't get those passing overs.The Eagles are already on the lower end because they take their time and run a lot."

Scott: "Scoring is up because average starting field position is up with the new kickoff rule — but that means less yardage available per drive. The numbers are still being priced off player averages, and there's less yardage to get." Mackenzie: "23 points per game was the most in five years, but yards per game was NOT up. Great point."

The takeaway: Season-long unders — unless you have a specific market edge like Saquon.

🏈 32 IN 32: ATLANTA FALCONS

The Market

NFC South: Bucs +170, Saints +270, Panthers +310, Falcons +400

⭐ THE PLAY: UNDER 7.5

Mackenzie: "I can't see eight wins for this team even in the terrible NFC South. Kevin Stefanski has two winning seasons — and he won Coach of the Year BOTH times, 11 wins in 2020 and 11 in 2023. I feel like that's improving what the market thinks of him more than is warranted. I'm not sure he's the guy who turns the Falcons around like that.

And they're clearly punting on the now — they signed huge deals to all their skill position players. Those are bad deals NOW, the idea being that in a couple of years when the cap goes up it'll be good to have these guys at that price. Right now it seems hard to make a winning team with that outlay."

The Quarterback Battle

Michael Penix Jr. was cleared to practice — so the real competition with Tua begins in preseason week three.

Mackenzie: "Modern technology has improved in the legs, not so much in the head. I feel like Tua is not long for the NFL — he's seemed that way for years. I'd give it to Penix because he's the homegrown guy fans want to see. I'm not sure there's a huge talent difference. Tie goes to the incumbent."

The Defense Is Still the Problem

Scott: "They don't get after the quarterback. They tried to address it with free agent signings in the secondary, but defensively they're a liability."

And it got worse: Jalon Walker — the 2025 first-round pick and likely one of their better linebackers — tore his ACL a couple weeks ago.

Where Are the Wins?

The schedule: International game in Madrid vs the Bengals — and they return with NO BYE to face Kansas City. Plus Baltimore, Detroit, San Francisco.

The exercise: "Give them two division wins, a win in Washington, a win at Cleveland in week 14 — that's a four-win team. Where else are we getting wins?"

Mackenzie: "You never know in the NFL — flip three results and they shock Green Bay. But you've got to have FOUR shocks now to get to eight the way this is looking."

📅 Coming Up

Tomorrow

• Michael Fiddle + 32 in 32: Carolina Panthers

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