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# Monday, August 24th, 2026
- URL: https://www.bettorday.com/monday-august-24th-2026/
- Published: 2026-08-24T10:00:37.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-24T18:57:27.000Z
- Author: Scott Seidenberg
- Tags: Newsletter

## NFL Preseason Dogs & 32 in 32: Atlanta Falcons

*Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers talk about the underdogs killing it in the NFL Preseason so far. Does it continue for Week 3? Plus a season long player prop over? And our 32 in 32 preview of the Atlanta Falcons.*

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## 🏈 THE DOGS ARE 25-7

### Through Two Weeks of Preseason

**Underdogs ATS: 25-7!**

**Mackenzie:** "That's a monster. **If it were the first round of the NCAA tournament and you had a 25-7 trend, it's all anybody could talk about.**"

**Sunday's closer:** Titans 19, Seahawks 16 — **Seattle covers as a 3.5-point dog** (available as high as +4.5, closed +3 many places). "Good teams win, great teams cover."

**Mackenzie:** "What was interesting is **the Seahawks pretty much covered in the FIRST QUARTER.** They were never giving away a 13-point lead, even though you'd think the favored team would have starters out more — **and that's what the market was reacting to.**"

---

## 🔑 WHY THE DOGS KEEP WINNING: JOINT PRACTICES

### The Titans Case Study

**The setup:** Cam Ward went 20 of 26 with two touchdowns against the Seahawks' ones in **Friday's joint practice.**Robert Saleh said his starters would play 20-25 snaps. **The market shot from Titans -2 to -4.5.**

**Scott's read:** "If Cam Ward looked that good in practice Friday, **you've seen enough.** There's no reason to play him extended time — **the worst thing you can do is erase all the positive vibes with a subpar performance.**"

**What happened:** "He had a subpar performance. He was not good. The Titans looked terrible with their starters. **The Seahawks, who didn't start any starters, dominated them in the first half.**"

---

### The Structural Explanation

**Scott:** "Every coach will tell you they get more out of joint practices because **it's a controlled environment.** Someone comes close to the quarterback, you blow the whistle. You script it with the opposing coach — 'we want third and longs today, we want red zone today.' In a preseason game you don't know if someone gets overzealous and takes a shot at your quarterback. **These guys are trying to make rosters.**

**I think the increase in joint practices around the league is WHY underdogs have dominated.** The books may be pricing these thinking the starters will play a bit — but coaches are saying 'we got our work in, they'll warm up and that's it.'

---

# 🎯 EVERYTHING CHANGES IN WEEK 3

### The Data Since 2021 (3-Game Preseason Era)

| Week       | Underdogs ATS           |
| ---------- | ----------------------- |
| Week 0-1   | **61-39**               |
| Week 2     | 55-40-1                 |
| **Week 3** | **32-41-2 — DOGS LOSE** |

### Week 3 Favorites

| Metric          | Number                                          |
| --------------- | ----------------------------------------------- |
| ATS             | **56-57%**, covering by **\~3 points per game** |
| **Straight up** | **52-21-2, by SEVEN points per game**           |

---

### Why?

**Mackenzie:** "It's all pricing motivation. **The market might know a player is starting — it doesn't know he's going to try hard.** Week three is more like week four in the old system. Which coaches are playing just to not get anybody hurt, and which have real battles to settle? **It's more identifiable — not who's playing, but who's going in with an intention to WIN.**"

**Scott's two additions:**

1. **"We now have two weeks of data on the backups.** You didn't know what the third and fourth-string quarterbacks would do — now you've seen them. Jack Strand from the D-III school looked incredible for Atlanta in week two. **Maybe Jack Strand is why the Falcons are favored in week three."**
2. **"Week three coincides with WEEK ZERO of college football.** With the books caring more about the higher limits and liquidity in college football, **there's more attention paid there — and maybe more pricing inefficiencies in preseason week three.** So the team that *should* be favored ends up closing as the favorite regardless, **and the steam move actually works.**"

---

### ⭐ THE WEEK 3 BOUNCE-BACK ANGLE

**Teams that lost their first TWO preseason games: 11-5 ATS in week three, covering by 6.7 points per game.**

**Mackenzie:** "The team that needs to get off the snide generally does."

**The 0-2 teams to target:** **Dolphins, Browns, Texans, Chiefs, Eagles, Saints, Seahawks**

---

## 🚨 THE ASHTON JEANTY SCARE

### The Prayer Circle

**What happened:** Jeanty went down diving for a ball out of his reach and **couldn't put weight on his leg.** He was helped off — and Raiders teammates **huddled up in a prayer circle.**

**Scott:** "When I read that, I'm thinking he's out for the year. **I don't care how religious you are — you don't stop practice for a prayer circle if he just rolled his ankle.**"

**The late report:** An ankle sprain — severity unknown, possibly a high ankle sprain. He'll miss time, **but it is NOT considered season-ending.**

---

### 🎯 THE MARKET GRAB (AND A HOUSE RULES LESSON)

**Scott:** "The sicko in me — as soon as I saw the report on Twitter, I looked for any book with Jeanty season-long props. **I got under 975 rushing yards at a local.** Every sportsbook took him off the board immediately."

**Mackenzie:** "**That is EXACTLY his number from his first season** — 975.5 — where he had bangs and bruises but played every game at just 3.7 yards per carry. Maybe Kubiak has better history with the run, **but he also has a history of using a lot of different backs.** And with the prayer-circle ankle, I'd be surprised if he's 100% in week one."

### ⚠️ THE HOUSE RULES DETAIL

**Scott:** "DraftKings, FanDuel — **as long as the player plays ONE snap during the regular season, your bet is active.**He doesn't have to play week one.

**So if Jeanty misses a month and then comes back, your under 975 is golden.** That's the reason unders will always be the profitable way to go with season-long player props."

---

## 📉 THE CASE FOR SEASON-LONG UNDERS

**Mackenzie:** "Theoretically, if there's a profitable side every year, they'd change the price until there isn't. **But the psychology of people wanting to bet overs and root for their teams and players is so strong.** Maybe one year it's 50/50 — **most years it's 52-48 for the under, if not better.**"

**Scott:** "There are so many ways to cash an under — performance, injury, **game script.**"

---

### 🚫 THE DUMB REASON TO BET AN OVER

**Scott:** "I've heard respected people give an asinine reason: **take the season-long number, divide by 17, and say 'all he has to do is go over X yards a game.'**

**No.** First, **you can't assume 17 games** — very few players play all 17\. Second, **every game script is different.** There are games where you're up three touchdowns and running with backups in. Games where you're down four scores and never run. Bad weather games. **All 17 games are not created equal. You cannot justify an over by dividing by 17.**"

### ✅ THE RIGHT REASON: FIND WHAT THE MARKET ISN'T PRICING

---

# ⭐ THE PLAY: SAQUON BARKLEY OVER 1,099.5 RUSHING YARDS

**The setup:** New Eagles OC **Sean Mannion** — from the McVay/Shanahan tree — wants **more under-center snaps for Jalen Hurts, more play action, run heavy.**

### The Split That Makes It

**Last season overall:** 280 attempts, 4.1 YPC, **+66 rushing yards over expected**, just over 1,100 yards.

| Alignment              | Attempts | YPC     | Yards Over Expected |
| ---------------------- | -------- | ------- | ------------------- |
| **Shotgun**            | 134      | **3.6** | **\-69**            |
| **Hurts UNDER CENTER** | 108      | **4.9** | **+168**            |

**Scott:** "**He is a much better runner when he has time to pick his lanes with the quarterback under center.** With Mannion calling more under-center plays, **that is something the market is not pricing into his season-long rushing prop.**"

---

### 📊 The Counterweight to Know

**Mackenzie:** "**Drives per game are at the lowest of the play-by-play era** — 10.7, then 10.5\. You can have a really efficient offense, but **if you're matriculating the ball down the field, sometimes you don't get those passing overs.**The Eagles are already on the lower end because they take their time and run a lot."

**Scott:** "Scoring is up because **average starting field position is up with the new kickoff rule** — but that means **less yardage available per drive.** The numbers are still being priced off player averages, and there's less yardage to get." **Mackenzie:** "23 points per game was the most in five years, but yards per game was NOT up. Great point."

**The takeaway:** Season-long **unders** — unless you have a specific market edge like Saquon.

---

# 🏈 32 IN 32: ATLANTA FALCONS

## The Market

| Market         | Line                 |
| -------------- | -------------------- |
| **Win total**  | **7.5 (UNDER -140)** |
| Alt: under 6.5 | +130                 |
| Make playoffs  | +215                 |
| Miss playoffs  | \-260                |

**NFC South:** Bucs +170, Saints +270, Panthers +310, **Falcons +400**

---

## ⭐ THE PLAY: UNDER 7.5

**Mackenzie:** "I can't see eight wins for this team even in the terrible NFC South. **Kevin Stefanski has two winning seasons — and he won Coach of the Year BOTH times**, 11 wins in 2020 and 11 in 2023\. **I feel like that's improving what the market thinks of him more than is warranted.** I'm not sure he's the guy who turns the Falcons around like that.

And they're clearly punting on the now — **they signed huge deals to all their skill position players. Those are bad deals NOW**, the idea being that in a couple of years when the cap goes up it'll be good to have these guys at that price. **Right now it seems hard to make a winning team with that outlay.**"

---

## The Quarterback Battle

**Michael Penix Jr. was cleared to practice** — so the real competition with Tua begins in preseason week three.

**Mackenzie:** "**Modern technology has improved in the legs, not so much in the head.** I feel like Tua is not long for the NFL — he's seemed that way for years. I'd give it to Penix because **he's the homegrown guy fans want to see.** I'm not sure there's a huge talent difference. **Tie goes to the incumbent.**"

---

## The Defense Is Still the Problem

| Unit          | Preseason Trench Rank |
| ------------- | --------------------- |
| **Pass rush** | **31st**              |

**Scott:** "**They don't get after the quarterback.** They tried to address it with free agent signings in the secondary, but defensively they're a liability."

**And it got worse:** **Jalon Walker — the 2025 first-round pick and likely one of their better linebackers — tore his ACL** a couple weeks ago.

---

## Where Are the Wins?

**The schedule:** International game in **Madrid vs the Bengals — and they return with NO BYE to face Kansas City.** Plus Baltimore, Detroit, San Francisco.

**The exercise:** "Give them two division wins, a win in Washington, a win at Cleveland in week 14 — **that's a four-win team. Where else are we getting wins?**"

**Mackenzie:** "You never know in the NFL — flip three results and they shock Green Bay. **But you've got to have FOUR shocks now to get to eight the way this is looking.**"

---

## 📅 Coming Up

### Tomorrow

- Michael Fiddle + **32 in 32: Carolina Panthers**

### 🎬 THURSDAY — SPECIAL BROADCAST

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