Preseason Betting Trends & 32 in 32: Washington Commanders

Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers recap Week 1 of the NFL Preseason with a look at some historical trends worth knowing if you're betting Week 2. Plus our 32 in 32 previews continue with the Washington Commanders.

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🏈 PRESEASON WEEK 1: THE NUMBERS

It Was Under City

Scott: "Is it just as simple as take the points and take the under?"

Mackenzie's Historical Split

Mackenzie: "Since the new CBA in 2012, all preseason unders hit 52% — you're almost breaking even betting every single one. But you can do a lot better if you look at totals of 39 and above.

It's the same reason underdogs do so well: the market doesn't know anything. If they think it's a high-scoring game, there's no evidence of that — you don't even know who's playing. So when the market says this is going to be a barn burner, remember it's the preseason. It probably won't be."

🎯 WEEK 2 ANGLES (Since 2021, the 3-Game Preseason Era)

❌ The Angle That Doesn't Work

Team lost last week, opponent won: 30-36-3 ATS — a coin flip.

⭐ BOTH TEAMS COMING OFF A WIN — THE STRONGEST SUBSET

This week's qualifying games: RAVENS-VIKINGS and BEARS-BENGALS. (Lines weren't posted at recording — take the favorite when they populate.)

Mackenzie: "It's fat and happy — there's no reason for the underdog that just won to have any motivation."

⭐ BOTH TEAMS COMING OFF A LOSS — TAKE THE MONEYLINE

Scott: "It's telling me they're sometimes too heavily favored — but moneyline-wise, the favorite is favored for a reason."

Mackenzie: "You can be up 14 and win by two on a botched two-point conversion all the time. Teams get to the finish line, but there are no style points in the preseason."

⭐ EMBARRASSED LAST WEEK? BACK THE DOG

Teams that lost by double digits, listed as an underdog the next week: 21-14 ATS.

The detail: The positive ATS margin comes in the SECOND half, not the first.

Scott: "That makes sense. First half is starters on limited snaps. Second half, the backups just got embarrassed and their jobs are on the line. And the coach wants to establish a culture and set a tone — you don't get the 'run the ball and get out of dodge' approach from a team that got humiliated."

Watch for these teams as dogs this week: Texans, Raiders, Packers, Panthers, Browns, Falcons, Dolphins, Eagles, Seahawks

❌ FADE THE FAT AND HAPPY FAVORITE

Won by 10+, then favored the next week:

Scott: "You win 70% of the time but don't cover. The market adjusts too much for teams that won by double digits.Recency bias is the thing I take advantage of most in the regular season — the numbers show it absolutely happens in the preseason too."

🚨 THE STEAM MOVES WENT 0-6

(Tracked by Jake Novakovich, who's writing college football for Bettor Day — his free National Title futures article is up now on the site and app.)

Scott: "Limits in the preseason are so much lower than the regular season that it might take ONE bet to move a line. A respected bettor places one limit bet — that book moves. We can't take preseason steam as gospel."

Mackenzie: "That's how Billy Walters got rich — not by being right every time, but by knowing his money moved markets and taking advantage of that."

🏈 32 IN 32: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

The Market

The Injury Pile

Scott: "Mariota matters — Jayden Daniels is coming back from injury and you need a reliable backup plan."

The Coordinator Problem

Both coordinators are new.

Mackenzie: "It's worked historically once — the Eagles got rid of both and went to the Super Bowl. Otherwise it's not a good sign. And for Dan Quinn's personal history, it's really not.

The offense fell from top-five in EPA to 22nd. Okay, Daniels got hurt, only played seven games — that makes sense. So why change the offensive coordinator? Why change the play caller? Why change the innovator in Kliff Kingsbury?Because you have to blame someone, and Dan Quinn — like in Atlanta — wanted to pass the buck. Eventually you run out: 'I'll call the defensive plays, get rid of the DC. Offense isn't working, get rid of him too.'

Without a phenom like Kyle Shanahan was in Atlanta or Kliff Kingsbury was here, I'm not sure there's another move to make this team competitive in a very good NFC East."

The Additions Don't Fix It

Stefon Diggs: "He doesn't drop balls — maybe a third-down specialist opposite Terry McLaurin."

Mackenzie: "That's the counter argument. They were the most hurt team at receiver and quarterback last year, 30th of 32. So if you argue a bounce back, it's Diggs and health. There is a path. I just don't see it."

The defense: LAST in total yards allowed

Mackenzie: "And you brought in a guy for $96 million — supposedly a top-10, top-20 defensive end. None of his PFF numbers or sack totals validate that purchase. It sounds like they're throwing money at a problem they haven't fixed."

The Schedule

The trench gauntlet: Eagles TWICE (one of the best trench teams in football), plus the 49ers, Rams, Vikings, Texans, and Jaguars.

Plus: The Week 4 London game vs the Colts — and they elected NOT to take the bye after it.

Scott: "When I rerun the numbers this week to account for preseason week one and the injuries — they're going to rank even worse. Updated preseason trench rankings publish this week at BettorDay.com, and we'll keep updating them all preseason."

🎯 THE PLAYS

1. UNDER 5.5 WINS (+305)

Mackenzie: "I hinted the alternate under made sense before. I think under 5.5 is very live now."

2. ⭐ DAN QUINN FIRST COACH FIRED — 12/1

The board: Aaron Glenn (favorite), Todd Bowles, Zac Taylor, Shane Steichen, Brian Schottenheimer... then Quinn at 12/1, fifth or sixth.

Mackenzie: "Dang, I'm surprised by that. I was surprised he didn't lose his job last year. That's a good flyer — I'd have guessed he was tied for first."

Why the guys ahead of him won't go first:

• Glenn: "Expectations are so low he'd have to lose 13 games before anyone says he's worse than expected."
• Steichen: "It's not his fault Anthony Richardson was there — that's the GM who keeps getting rehired. Look what he did with Daniel Jones and Philip Rivers."
• Schottenheimer: "Jerry and Stephen Jones don't want to admit a mistake. Long leash."

The London kicker: Mackenzie: "What week is the London game? He might plan his Irish vacation right around then. Robert Saleh was left in England after a Week 4 London game."

🏈 Other NFL Notes

Von Miller to Dallas (one year) — 9 sacks last season with Washington. Mackenzie: "The Bills did this whole experiment and he was good for six weeks. For the cost it's not a bad flyer, but I'd be surprised if it's a big deal."

Aaron Donald worked out for the Rams AGAIN.

Mackenzie: "They wouldn't be Super Bowl favorites unless the market thinks there's a 60% chance he plays. LA is at 15% on the prediction markets, Seattle at 8% — double the chance of the team that won the Super Bowl easily and brought everybody back. The market is in love with this Rams team. Donald and Myles Garrett on either side of the line — that's incredible."

🧮 FREE TOOL DROP: PREDICTION MARKET CONVERTER

Live demo from the pod: The Rams at 15 cents on a prediction market.

How to use it: "If your sportsbook has the Rams at +500 or +550, the 15-cent contract is better. If it's +600, the sportsbook is better. And with fees included at +539 — you can get better than that at most traditional books."

Scott: "The more meetings I have about prediction markets, the more I hear about the usage rates — and the confusion.That's why we built this. Save money, bet smarter."

FREE for Everyone at BettorDay.com → Calculators 

📅 Coming Up

• Tuesday: Michael Fiddle / 32 in 32: Chicago Bears
• Wednesday: David Bearman / 32 in 32: Detroit Lions
• Thursday: AJ Hoffman / 32 in 32: Green Bay Packers
• Thursday: The BettorDay Football Show, 2 PM ET on YouTube and X @better_day (episode 1 is up now!)

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