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# Monday, August 17th, 2026
- URL: https://www.bettorday.com/monday-august-17th-2026/
- Published: 2026-08-17T10:00:27.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-17T10:00:28.000Z
- Author: Scott Seidenberg
- Tags: Newsletter

## Preseason Betting Trends & 32 in 32: Washington Commanders

*Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers recap Week 1 of the NFL Preseason with a look at some historical trends worth knowing if you're betting Week 2\. Plus our 32 in 32 previews continue with the Washington Commanders.* 

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Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe! 

[Listen ](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) 

## 🏈 PRESEASON WEEK 1: THE NUMBERS

### It Was Under City

| Angle             | Record   |
| ----------------- | -------- |
| **UNDERS**        | **12-5** |
| **UNDERDOGS ATS** | **13-4** |

**Scott:** "Is it just as simple as take the points and take the under?"

---

### Mackenzie's Historical Split

**Mackenzie:** "Since the new CBA in 2012, all preseason unders hit **52%** — you're almost breaking even betting every single one. **But you can do a lot better if you look at totals of 39 and above.**

It's the same reason underdogs do so well: **the market doesn't know anything.** If they think it's a high-scoring game, there's no evidence of that — you don't even know who's playing. So when the market says this is going to be a barn burner, remember it's the preseason. **It probably won't be.**"

| Filter                                   | Hit Rate |
| ---------------------------------------- | -------- |
| All preseason unders since 2012          | 52%      |
| **Unders on totals 39.5+**               | **60%**  |
| **Unders on totals 39.5+, last 5 years** | **63%**  |

---

## 🎯 WEEK 2 ANGLES (Since 2021, the 3-Game Preseason Era)

---

### ❌ The Angle That Doesn't Work

**Team lost last week, opponent won:** **30-36-3 ATS** — a coin flip.

---

### ⭐ BOTH TEAMS COMING OFF A WIN — THE STRONGEST SUBSET

| Favorites   | Record    |
| ----------- | --------- |
| Straight up | **24-12** |
| ATS         | **21-15** |

**This week's qualifying games: RAVENS-VIKINGS and BEARS-BENGALS.** (Lines weren't posted at recording — take the favorite when they populate.)

**Mackenzie:** "It's fat and happy — there's no reason for the underdog that just won to have any motivation."

---

### ⭐ BOTH TEAMS COMING OFF A LOSS — TAKE THE MONEYLINE

| Favorites       | Record      |
| --------------- | ----------- |
| **Straight up** | **21-12-1** |
| ATS             | 17-17       |

**Scott:** "It's telling me they're sometimes too heavily favored — but moneyline-wise, the favorite is favored for a reason."

**Mackenzie:** "You can be up 14 and win by two on a botched two-point conversion all the time. Teams get to the finish line, but **there are no style points in the preseason.**"

---

### ⭐ EMBARRASSED LAST WEEK? BACK THE DOG

**Teams that lost by double digits, listed as an underdog the next week: 21-14 ATS.**

**The detail:** The positive ATS margin comes in the **SECOND half**, not the first.

**Scott:** "That makes sense. First half is starters on limited snaps. **Second half, the backups just got embarrassed and their jobs are on the line.** And the coach wants to establish a culture and set a tone — you don't get the 'run the ball and get out of dodge' approach from a team that got humiliated."

**Watch for these teams as dogs this week:** Texans, Raiders, Packers, Panthers, Browns, Falcons, Dolphins, Eagles, Seahawks

---

### ❌ FADE THE FAT AND HAPPY FAVORITE

**Won by 10+, then favored the next week:**

| Result      | Record            |
| ----------- | ----------------- |
| Straight up | **25-11-1 (70%)** |
| **ATS**     | **19-17-1**       |

**Scott:** "You win 70% of the time but don't cover. **The market adjusts too much for teams that won by double digits.**Recency bias is the thing I take advantage of most in the regular season — the numbers show it absolutely happens in the preseason too."

---

## 🚨 THE STEAM MOVES WENT 0-6

| Team         | Result             |
| ------------ | ------------------ |
| Green Bay    | Lost by 19         |
| Indianapolis | Tied, no cover     |
| Tennessee    | Won by 6, no cover |
| Las Vegas    | Lost by 13         |
| Miami        | Lost outright      |
| Jets         | Lost outright      |

*(Tracked by Jake Novakovich, who's writing college football for Bettor Day — his free National Title futures article is up now* [*on the site* ](https://www.bettorday.com/cfb-national-championship-futures/)*and app.)*

**Scott:** "Limits in the preseason are so much lower than the regular season that **it might take ONE bet** to move a line. A respected bettor places one limit bet — that book moves. **We can't take preseason steam as gospel.**"

**Mackenzie:** "That's how Billy Walters got rich — not by being right every time, but by knowing his money moved markets and taking advantage of that."

---

# 🏈 32 IN 32: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

## The Market

| Market             | Line                 |
| ------------------ | -------------------- |
| **Win total**      | **7.5** (under -115) |
| **ALT: under 5.5** | **+305**             |
| Miss playoffs      | \-340                |
| Make playoffs      | +275                 |

---

## The Injury Pile

| Player             | Status                                            |
| ------------------ | ------------------------------------------------- |
| **Laremy Tunsil**  | Out most/all of the season                        |
| **Marcus Mariota** | Hurt in preseason — hoping to be ready for Week 1 |
| Trey Amos (CB)     | Injured                                           |
| O-line             | Multiple issues                                   |

**Scott:** "Mariota matters — Jayden Daniels is coming back from injury and **you need a reliable backup plan.**"

---

## The Coordinator Problem

**Both coordinators are new.**

**Mackenzie:** "It's worked historically once — the Eagles got rid of both and went to the Super Bowl. **Otherwise it's not a good sign. And for Dan Quinn's personal history, it's really not.**

The offense fell from top-five in EPA to **22nd**. Okay, Daniels got hurt, only played seven games — that makes sense. **So why change the offensive coordinator? Why change the play caller? Why change the innovator in Kliff Kingsbury?**Because you have to blame someone, and Dan Quinn — like in Atlanta — wanted to pass the buck. Eventually you run out: 'I'll call the defensive plays, get rid of the DC. Offense isn't working, get rid of him too.'

**Without a phenom like Kyle Shanahan was in Atlanta or Kliff Kingsbury was here, I'm not sure there's another move to make this team competitive in a very good NFC East.**"

---

## The Additions Don't Fix It

**Stefon Diggs:** "He doesn't drop balls — maybe a third-down specialist opposite Terry McLaurin."

**Mackenzie:** "That's the counter argument. They were the most hurt team at receiver and quarterback last year, **30th of 32**. So if you argue a bounce back, it's Diggs and health. **There is a path. I just don't see it.**"

**The defense:** **LAST in total yards allowed**

**Mackenzie:** "And you brought in a guy for **$96 million** — supposedly a top-10, top-20 defensive end. **None of his PFF numbers or sack totals validate that purchase.** It sounds like they're throwing money at a problem they haven't fixed."

---

## The Schedule

**The trench gauntlet:** Eagles TWICE (one of the best trench teams in football), plus the 49ers, Rams, Vikings, Texans, and Jaguars.

**Plus:** The **Week 4 London game vs the Colts** — and they elected **NOT** to take the bye after it.

**Scott:** "When I rerun the numbers this week to account for preseason week one and the injuries — **they're going to rank even worse.** Updated preseason trench rankings publish this week at [BettorDay.com](https://www.bettorday.com/nfl-hq/), and we'll keep updating them all preseason."

---

## 🎯 THE PLAYS

### 1\. UNDER 5.5 WINS (+305)

**Mackenzie:** "I hinted the alternate under made sense before. **I think under 5.5 is very live now.**"

### 2\. ⭐ DAN QUINN FIRST COACH FIRED — 12/1

**The board:** Aaron Glenn (favorite), Todd Bowles, Zac Taylor, Shane Steichen, Brian Schottenheimer... **then Quinn at 12/1, fifth or sixth.**

**Mackenzie:** "**Dang, I'm surprised by that.** I was surprised he didn't lose his job last year. That's a good flyer — **I'd have guessed he was tied for first.**"

**Why the guys ahead of him won't go first:**

- **Glenn:** "Expectations are so low he'd have to lose 13 games before anyone says he's worse than expected."
- **Steichen:** "It's not his fault Anthony Richardson was there — **that's the GM who keeps getting rehired.** Look what he did with Daniel Jones and Philip Rivers."
- **Schottenheimer:** "**Jerry and Stephen Jones don't want to admit a mistake.** Long leash."

**The London kicker:** **Mackenzie:** "What week is the London game? He might plan his Irish vacation right around then. **Robert Saleh was left in England after a Week 4 London game.**"

---

## 🏈 Other NFL Notes

**Von Miller to Dallas** (one year) — 9 sacks last season with Washington. **Mackenzie:** "The Bills did this whole experiment and he was good for six weeks. For the cost it's not a bad flyer, but I'd be surprised if it's a big deal."

**Aaron Donald worked out for the Rams AGAIN.**

**Mackenzie:** "They wouldn't be Super Bowl favorites unless the market thinks there's a **60% chance he plays.** LA is at 15% on the prediction markets, **Seattle at 8% — double the chance of the team that won the Super Bowl easily and brought everybody back.** The market is in love with this Rams team. **Donald and Myles Garrett on either side of the line — that's incredible.**"

---

## 🧮 FREE TOOL DROP: PREDICTION MARKET CONVERTER

**Live demo from the pod:** The Rams at **15 cents** on a prediction market.

| Setting                  | Converted Price |
| ------------------------ | --------------- |
| No fees                  | **+567**        |
| **With Polymarket fees** | **+539**        |

**How to use it:** "If your sportsbook has the Rams at +500 or +550, the 15-cent contract is better. **If it's +600, the sportsbook is better.** And with fees included at +539 — you can get better than that at most traditional books."

**Scott:** "The more meetings I have about prediction markets, the more I hear about the usage rates — **and the confusion.**That's why we built this. **Save money, bet smarter.**"

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/08/bettorday-tools-cover-1.png)

**FREE for Everyone at** [**BettorDay.com → Calculators**](https://www.bettorday.com/tools/) 

---

## 📅 Coming Up

- **Tuesday:** Michael Fiddle / 32 in 32: Chicago Bears
- **Wednesday:** David Bearman / 32 in 32: Detroit Lions
- **Thursday:** AJ Hoffman / 32 in 32: Green Bay Packers
- **Thursday: The BettorDay Football Show**, 2 PM ET on YouTube and X @better\_day (episode 1 is up now!)

---

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---

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