NFL Preseason News & 32 in 32: Las Vegas Raiders

Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers react to some NFL preseason news and continue our 32 teams in 32 shows previews with the Las Vegas Raiders.

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🏈 THE TUNSIL INJURY: RERUNNING THE NUMBERS

Washington Loses Its Left Tackle

The news: Laremy Tunsil out for most, if not all, of the regular season.

Scott: "No non-quarterback position affects the spread more than losing a starting left tackle, with the exception of certain players."

Mackenzie: "It depends on the quarterback — if Washington's QB is himself and as mobile as ever, it matters less. But look at the Chargers last year when they lost their left tackle to start the year and later the right tackle. Herbert had probably his most pedestrian season. Whether it's a half-point worry or a quarter-point worry, you can argue either."

What It Does to the Trench Report

The preseason numbers before the injury:

Scott: "That pass-blocking grade was the one thing evening out a schedule where they have a negative matchup almost every week. Take away Tunsil and it changes everything. I'm rerunning the numbers this week — I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with an even worse projection. For now: under 7.5 wins for the Commanders."

Mackenzie's Doomsday Scenario

Mackenzie: "I almost want the alternate under. 7.5 is low for a team that was top-eight in power ratings last year — but Jayden Daniels could just get hurt again. This could be RG3 2.0. The parallels are obvious: best rookie season we've seen in forever, unexpected playoff berth, then an early-season injury, missed playoffs, coaching turnover. And now your blind side tackle is out.

There's a real scenario where Daniels plays four games, gets hurt, plays five, gets hurt — and this team is 4-13."

The Ripple Effect

Scott: "If we're more negative on Washington, do we have to UPGRADE the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles?"

Mackenzie: "It helps a lot if you already liked a team to win the division — those marginal wins matter. But on a win total it's like a third of a win. If you already had 1.5 expected wins out of two games against them, now it's 1.8. It doesn't move the win total as much as it removes one real competitor from the division."

🎯 THE WEEK 1 EDGE: ZERO PRESEASON DROPBACKS

The News That Sets Up Our First Regular-Season Bet

Andy Reid announced Patrick Mahomes is unlikely to play in the preseason — definitely not Week 1 of the preseason, and probably not at all.

THE STUDY (Mackenzie's research, updated)

The sample: 40+ quarterbacks with zero preseason dropbacks, and how their teams performed in Week 1. (Since 2021)

The conclusion: "Consistently — if your quarterback plays zero preseason snaps, your team underperforms in Week 1."

Putting It In Perspective

Mackenzie: "Tom Brady was 57% ATS for his whole career and his ATS margin was about plus one and a half to two.That's a HUGE number for ATS. If you get four points of value, converting to a money line, you're looking at a 65% play. So is the market adjusting? I just don't think so. You couldn't put Chiefs -3 if you were considering this at all."

Why This Spot Is Worse Than Most

Mackenzie: "A lot of the best coaches do this — and a lot of the best coaches see middling or negative Week 1 results. Sean McVay has a great offense in September, not so great in Week 1. Andy Reid has always killed September — and he played Mahomes in three of four preseason games. Now it's zero of three. That's a big divergence from what they normally do.

And Denver is probably the worst way to start your season coming off an ACL. To put Mahomes right into that fire..."

Plus the rust factor: "Even if he were 100% healthy — which is questionable — rust is real, especially for a quarterback asked to do as much as Mahomes."

🎯 THE PLAY: BRONCOS +3

Scott: "It's a full-out fade. Broncos +3 is the play — you're not going to get 3.5, and if anything those threes are going to disappear.

🏈 32 IN 32: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

The Market

Rookie props: Fernando Mendoza 2,299.5 passing yards, 12.5 passing TDs

Mackenzie: "So they're giving him like eight games."

THE CROSBY-COUSINS FIGHT

What happened: Maxx Crosby hit Kirk Cousins a couple of times in Friday's practice. Saturday, Klint Kubiak held BOTH players out of practice — trying to build a culture, these players violated practice rules and were held accountable. That put No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza with the ones.

Mackenzie's Read: It's a Crosby Problem

Mackenzie: "Kubiak comes from the Shanahan tree — I've been to a few of those training camps as a ball boy. Fighting was not encouraged, but it was par for the course. Nobody trains harder than the 49ers. So my first question was: why is this even an issue? Why hold them out instead of just letting them go at it?

Is Crosby just trying to get himself suspended? Trying to stay home from school? He does not like the Raiders. He walked out of the building unhappy at the end of last year. New coach, but same ownership, same everything. They might have to move on from him sooner rather than later."

The trade context: The Raiders may be unhappy too — they aren't getting the deal that was on the table this offseason. (Mackenzie: "They signed the deal, said 'you're out of here, thank you for your services' — and then had to walk him back through the door.")

THE MENDOZA TIMELINE

The Research

Mackenzie: "There's a study — 'NFL Quarterbacks: The Role of Competing Quarterbacks, Rookie Playing Time and Team Quality,' covering 1994-2017. Two strong correlations:

1. Play a lot in year one → you play a lot in years two, three, four
2. DON'T play a lot in year one → you're much more likely to make it to year five, ten, fifteen

The idea is strong: if you're forced into playing, it's because you're from a weaker organization — the Zach Wilson Jets, the Anthony Richardson Colts, throwing stuff at a wall. If Tom Brady can hold Mendoza back, it's better for him.Mahomes, Jordan Love, and Aaron Rodgers all benefited from extended waits behind middling veterans. (Though Drake Maye started and was the best quarterback in the league the next year — there are counterexamples.)"

The Schedule Problem

Scott: "There's no soft landing spot. Is it Week 8 at the Jets? Then you go to San Francisco, then home to Seattle, then at Denver. That's your first four starts as an NFL quarterback?"

The likely answer: "They have a late bye in Week 13, then come home to the Chargers. Maybe you start him Week 14 once you're mathematically eliminated, and he plays 14 through 18."

Mackenzie: "That would make a lot of sense. But this team isn't strong enough to make noise — they don't have a receiver, they have a bunch of tight ends. I'd give Cousins the whole year. And Vegas plays the long game because the Raiders aren't something this city lives and dies with — it's more for people visiting."

The Verdict

Scott: "No official play, but if forced — over 5.5, which is why it's juiced. You beat Miami in Week 1 and you're ahead of the eight ball. You've got the Jets, Cleveland, Arizona, Tennessee on the schedule. Steal a win or two in the division and you're over."

Mackenzie: "The coaching change alone gives you a win — the newest, most avant-garde offense replacing the oldest, most defensive-oriented rah-rah guy. Over 5.5 if I had to pick. And I don't love the division: the Chiefs could be struggling, I'm not sure about the Chargers, and I'm not as sure the Broncos were as dominant as last year."

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