MLB Postseason Free Plays
Braves ML (+100) vs. Phillies
The Braves rallied in Game 1 to overtake the Phillies, and it was a big one for them because it means they survived the Jesús Luzardo game. Luzardo hasn’t done much losing this season and was a perfect 9-0 away from Philly on the year.
Today, the task doesn’t get much easier with Cristopher Sánchez on the hill, but I still think we’re getting some value here. The Braves are -325 to win the series. They’re even-money to win today, and I assure you they will be dogs in Game 3 if they face Zack Wheeler.
So, in my mind, you have two options: You either take the Phillies to win the series, or you bet the Braves in Game 2, and if we lose, we re-rack it in Game 3.
Since 2022, when MLB expanded the postseason and replaced the single-game Wild Card format with a three-game series, the team that wins Game 1 has gone on to win the series 94% of the time (15-1).
Also, don’t overlook the fact that Tyler Mahle has been solid since joining the Braves—or that Mahle has dominated the Phillies. He faced them in back-to-back outings in September, allowing a combined one earned run over 13 innings pitched.
Red Sox @ Yankees Under 6.5
Every game on the opening day of MLB’s postseason went over the total—an anomaly, to say the least. It’s even more surprising when talking about the Yankees and Red Sox, two of the lowest wRC+ teams in the postseason, especially when you consider the Yankees are without Aaron Judge.
According to xERA, Max Fried is the highest-rated pitcher in the Yankees’ rotation, and the Red Sox can’t seem to hit him. The current Red Sox roster owns a mere .212 xBA and .302 xSLG in 146 combined plate appearances against Fried.
I would just back the Yankees here, but I have too much respect for this rivalry not to see this thing go to a deciding Game 3. I’ll stay under in a tight one.
Brandon Kravitz is a contributor to Bettor Day. A sports media veteran, Brandon works as a betting analyst for Action Network & Rotowire. He is also the host of the Orlando Magic Radio Network. You can follow him @BrandonKravitz across X, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube.
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