MLB Postseason Free Play 9/29
Cubs at Padres, 10pm Eastern
Fernando Tatis Jr over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-135 MGM)
Many would think Fernando Tatis Jr was abysmal during the first half of the year with all the bad publicity he got thanks to not hitting his first home run until it was nearly June, but he did still produce a .277 average at the plate. The five homers in the first half certainly were cause for concern, but he turned things around in the second half, thumping an astounding 20 home runs and hitting over .300 as the Padres surged towards the playoffs. Tatis Jr has been better at home with a .316 average this year, better against lefties with a .309 average, and he ended the year scorching hot, hitting .337 in September with 60 total bases. He has extensive experience against Matthew Boyd while producing a good bit of recent success with multiple hits this year including a home run, but the biggest piece is the Padres slugger has hit the ball hard four of the last five times they faced off this year. We get Tatis Jr on the better side of every split and opposing a soft tossing southpaw that won’t beat him with much, so I’ll back him and the Padres to do some damage tonight in San Diego.
Padres to Win the Series (-120 DK)
The Padres have a severe lack of starting pitching depth, and I question if Michael King is due for regression with him being a bit lucky this year, but what they lack in starter depth they make up for in the bullpen. It’s not surprising that seven of the top eight bullpens in baseball are now in the playoffs, and the Padres might be the best of the bunch, featuring Closer Mason Miller, along with a litany of relievers with sparkling ERA’s and solid strikeout stuff. Putting out a fire isn’t the problem for San Diego, it’s who picks up the remaining innings after that happens, but I’m willing to worry about that later and only if needed.
The worry for the Cubs is a bullpen, one that squandered many opportunities for this ballclub late in games, and was bottom-six at converting save chances, surrounded by the Rockies, Angels, Nationals and Giants. Those are not the likes of teams you want to be associated with, but that’s what this bullpen has put them through, and that’s the type of weakness that gets easily exploited in October. Ball games are won and lost by the bullpen this time of year and with the Padres coming in having scored the second-most runs in September, it won’t be easy to stop their hot bats with a struggling bullpen. There is always high-variance in the postseason so all of the sudden Daniel Palencia could be back to his old self, but I’m not so sure and I’d much rather bet on the loaded Padres bullpen. The price for Game One is about 10 cents worse than the series price, but we get the Padres as the home team and since the Wild Card round has changed, teams that win the first game of the series are 15-1, with the only loss being the Red Sox last year to the Yankees. I’ll take the discount and bet that the Padres get it done in the series rather than just in Game One.
Angelo Magliocca is an MLB Analyst for CBS Sports & Sportsline. Follow him on X @AmagsPicks and check out more of his work at https://www.sportsline.com/experts/51295899/angelo-magliocca/
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