1st at bat strikeouts against Jared Jones of the Pirates — 0.5u bets
Moises Ballesteros (+220 MGM)
Josh Lowe (+175 MGM)
The young lefty Moises Ballesteros will be up against Jared Jones tonight and on the season he’s around a 24% strikeout rate against right handed pitchers. Over the last month however, that’s bumped up to about 30% and it nearly coincides with his trade to the Angels which is interesting. As we saw this weekend, he’ll struggle with fastballs, especially those of higher velocity as he saw from Cam Schlittler, and Jared Jones brings a 98 mph fastball to the table tonight. Jones has produced a 28% strikeout rate against left-handed batters this year, using mainly a fastball and slider combo, along with a changeup around 15% of the time. The slider plays to a 40% whiff rate vs. lefty bats, so if it’s not the fastball velocity that nails down some strikeouts, it could be the breaking pitch, and that’s where Josh Lowe comes in.
Ballesteros has actually been fine vs. breaking balls so a changeup might be better for Jones there, but Josh Lowe is one of the other lefties in this order and he’s struggled with both the fastball and breaking pitches. Lowe has a 30% strikeout rate against righties on the year, and it’s been more of the same over the last month, so he hits our radar because of the platoon split and matches up well for a strikeout vs. the arsenal that Jones throws the most.
There are a plethora of righties who also make for good strikeout matchups but I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that Jones has been better against lefties for strikeouts. He is still a strikeout per inning against righties, and this Angels lineup has a bunch of options for us, but it’s fair to note this is the weaker side of the split for him. Jones’ pitch mix is nearly 90% combined fastball/slider against righties, as the changeup usage is cut in half, and none of his pitches top a 38% whiff rate with the slider at 33%. There’s nothing truly notable about his underlying stuff vs. righties, but I won’t blame you for taking a shot on these righties that always make for a soft strikeout matchup.
The list of options literally includes all the righties: Zach Neto, Mike Trout, Vaughn Grissom, Christian Moore and Oswald Peraza. Meckler and Heineman are the only two guys I would stay away from when betting on strikeouts for this team, and the question remains, what about the full game over 6.5 Ks around +125? I’m monitoring the weather currently and if all is clear I think taking a shot on 7+ strikeouts is fine, but I’m staying off full game props for now as there is potential for rain within the first couple hours of the game.
Angelo Magliocca is an MLB Analyst for CBS Sports & Sportsline. Follow him on X @AmagsPicks and check out more of his work at https://www.sportsline.com/experts/51295899/angelo-magliocca/
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