Carter Jensen 1st Plate Appearance (vs Tarik Skubal) - Exact Result Strikeout (+155 Caesars) 0.5u
Jac Caglianone 1st Plate Appearance - Exact Result Strikeout (+170 MGM) 0.5u
Betting on the exact result of an at bat being a strikeout when guys like Jacob Misiorowski and Tarik Skubal are on the mound is a great way to have some instant gratification and fun, while remaining profitable along the way. Attacking this prop market isn’t only in good fun though; we’re directly targeting some of the league’s biggest culprits for strikeouts, while simultaneously backing starting pitchers that have elite strikeout stuff.
Tonight we get Tarik Skubal on the mound for his first home start in a Dodgers uniform, and a familiar foe, the Kansas City Royals, will be on the other side. With his former division rival coming into town for an interleague matchup, I’m anticipating a solid start out of a motivated pitcher, but I’m not sure that leads to a ton of strikeouts overall. He did have 12 against this team last time, so it can happen again, but I’m picking out two of the main strikeout targets that we have in this Royals lineup and “throwing the rest away.” Kansas City has kept their strikeout numbers low both on the season and recently, albeit some of the opposing starting pitchers of late have not been big strikeout arms, but it’s still notable how they approach hitting.
Jac Caglianone sat out when the Royals last faced the reigning Cy Young winner, but the young kid has been scorching hot in August, hitting .406 with just three strikeouts in 32 at bats. In my opinion, it doesn’t make much sense to sit him after he started vs. southpaw Matthew Boyd yesterday and the Royals’ season is effectively over at this point. Regardless, the bet would be void if he isn’t in the starting lineup and we would move on with no issue. Caglianone was one of the three strikeouts that Matthew Boyd picked up in his seven innings against the Royals on Sunday, showing he is still susceptible to getting punched out in the left on left matchup. On the season Caglianone is running a 30% K rate vs. lefties, and this is no average lefty in Tarik Skubal that he’ll be seeing for the very first time. At this price, it’s a must play for me and I’ll bet the same thing in the second at bat as long as Skubal is still in the game.
Carter Jensen was 0-4 against Skubal with three strikeouts back on July 24th, and he’s had issues with strikeouts against southpaws all season. The rookie has been needed in the lineup more often than not with Salvy Perez now starting more games at DH than catcher for the first time in his career, and that’s opened up extra at bats against lefties. This is another guy who they might think about sitting in this matchup but I currently have him projected in the lineup so we’ll make the bet while we can and wait to see if he’s playing. It’s a great matchup for strikeouts with Jensen running a 30% K rate against southpaws, and he’s been even worse of late, so I’m not going to overthink this too much.
Skubal has dominant strikeout stuff against lefties with a 17% swinging strike rate on the year, a number he’s seen rise of late, yet he’s also been more susceptible to damage from the left side, with a .263 average allowed opposed to just .189 against righties. He’ll need to dodge the potential for big damage that Jensen and Caglianone bring to the table, but I think he can do that early while he’s fresh and amped up to begin the game.
🎯 PLAYS: Carter Jensen 1st Plate Appearance (vs Tarik Skubal) - Exact Result Strikeout (+155 Caesars) 0.5u
Jac Caglianone 1st Plate Appearance - Exact Result Strikeout (+170 MGM) 0.5u
Angelo Magliocca is an MLB Analyst for CBS Sports & Sportsline. Follow him on X @AmagsPicks and check out more of his work at https://www.sportsline.com/experts/51295899/angelo-magliocca/
Not a member yet? In celebration of the new App, New Users can take 50% OFF their First Month of Bettor Day Premium! Join Now!
*Android users: your app is coming in a few days!!!! — but you can get it early! Reply to this email with the Google account email you use on your Android phone and we'll add you to the test group!