MLB Free Play 5/4/26

TB Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Total Bases

(+105)

The Toronto Blue Jays have yet to announce their starter for this evening, but it should be left hander Eric Lauer. So, if it is Lauer, we are all over Rays stud Yandy Díaz to go over 1.5 bases and to leave the yard. I always go .75u on bases and .25u on the home run, so I am risking a full unit if he fails to do both. That is just the way I have always done it.Right now you can get a Yandy Home Run at +525.

Anywho, back to the numbers. Díaz finds himself with the second-highest matchup rating on the day, per Batters-Box. This marks the 34-year-old’s 64th elite rating over the last three seasons. In the previous 63, he has some impressive trends:

• 1+ hit: 73%
• 2+ hits: 33.33%
• Single: 55.56%
• 2+ bases: 49.21%
• 2+ HRR: 55.56%

In Díaz’s last 10 elite ratings, he has gone over 2+ bases in 7 of them and over 2+ HRR in 8. I am not the biggest fan of hits, runs, and RBI props, I never think you are getting good value unless it is plus money for over 1.5. The trends lean HRR over bases, but I chase value.

If the Blue Jays do send out Lauer, he will be the worst-rated pitcher on today’s slate, sporting poorly rated average hitter matchup metrics in ISO, strikeout percentage, and ground ball percentage. Away from home against right-handed hitters this season, the Blue Jays left-hander has allowed a .295 BA, .523 SLG, and .382 wOBA, along with a 55.3% fly ball rate.

The last 30 right-handed hitters he has faced are making 44% hard contact with a 12% barrel rate, 12% ground ball rate, and 68% fly ball rate, while posting a .368 xBA, .743 xSLG, and .429 xwOBA.

To pile onto Lauer’s struggles, only 10% of his five-pitch arsenal grades above league average, that pitch being his slider. Díaz against sliders this season owns a .371 BA, .977 OPS, and 180 wRC+. Against 74% of Lauer’s pitch mix, Díaz owns an OPS of at least .944 and a wRC+ of 168. The seasoned veteran has solid expected numbers against the remaining 26%.

Again, if Lauer gets the nod, I will be all over Yandy Díaz’s total bases at +105 and home run at +525.