White Sox First 5 Innings Team Total Over 1.5 (-150)
Some may clench their fists when they see this price tag, but they shouldn’t when the number is 1.5. I always say, if it’s 1.5 runs for a team you like to boom in the first five, the price does not matter. It’s when you get to 2.5 runs in the first five that the price starts to matter.
The Chicago White Sox, who rank fifth in first five scoring, find themselves in a great spot against Twins starter Zebby Matthews. Yes, the team famously known as the worst to ever do it two years ago is now racking up runs early and often.
Matthews grades out as the second worst rated pitcher on the slate, per Batters-Box. He now has to deal with a lineup loaded with elite rated bats. In the current season ratings, the White Sox have six elite rated hitters.
Through his first two starts this season, Matthews has looked lights out, but that does not concern me when those outings came against the Marlins and Astros at home.
All six elite rated hitters will bat from the left side. In Matthews’ career, left handed hitters own a .300 BA, .356 OBP, .537 SLG, and a .380 wOBA against him. On top of that, he is allowing a 45% fly ball rate and a 25% line drive rate to lefties as well.
I would probably take this prop up to -160. Anything lower than -150 is a gift.
🎯 PLAY: White Sox First 5 Innings Team Total OVER 1.5 Runs