DET Riley Greene OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+111)
Sprinkle Riley Greene Home Run (+410)
One of my favorite looks on today’s hefty Monday slate is Tigers outfielder Riley Greene to go over 1.5 bases and to leave the yard (sprinkle). The young slugger finds himself with the highest hitter rating in this matchup. While owning an elite rating on Batters-Box, Greene surpasses 1.5 bases 51% of the time across a 49-game sample size. In 26 elite-rated home games, he goes over 1.5 bases 53.85% of the time.
This evening, Greene draws Guardians right-hander Slade Cecconi, who owns the second-worst pitcher rating on the day. On top of that, he sports poorly rated marks in matchup ISO, strikeout percentage, and ground ball percentage.
Left-handed hitters have given the young starter issues this season, posting a .273 xBA, .433 xSLG, and .341 xwOBA against him. Over the last 30 lefties Cecconi has faced, despite the low hard-hit rate allowed, hitters are still producing a 41.7% fly ball rate, 25% line drive rate, and 33.3% ground ball rate, while posting a .328 xBA, .455 xSLG, and .556 xwOBA.
With Greene batting .385 with a .402 wOBA and .890 OPS, while producing 44.4% hard contact and a 39% line drive rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, I think he is in a great spot to boom against Cecconi.
🎯 PLAY: Riley Greene OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+111) & Sprinkle Riley Greene Home Run (+410)
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