MLB Free Play 5/11/26

Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI's

Devers Home Run Sprinkle (+390)

Small Monday slate in the MLB this evening with only six games to enjoy, but there is some significant value lurking in the late-night matchup. Giants slugger Rafael Devers finds himself in a great spot taking on Dodgers right hander, Roki Sasaki.

The 24-year-old starter has been struggling early on this season, especially against left-handed hitters. Over the last 30 lefties he has faced, he owns a 4.73 FIP while allowing 68.4% hard contact, a 15.8% barrel rate, a 31.6% ground ball rate, and a 21.1% line drive rate. Those left-handed bats own a .304 xBA, .580 xSLG, .700 wOBA, and .347 xwOBA during that span.

Overall at home against left-handed hitters, Sasaki has allowed just a 27.3% ground ball rate and a 40.9% fly ball rate, while opponents are batting .290 with a .516 slugging percentage against him.

Despite the slow start from Devers this season, he has started to heat up over his last few games. In his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, he owns a .346 BA, .367 OBP, .731 SLG, and 1.098 OPS.

Almost all of Sasaki’s offerings are valued below league average. His fastball, which he throws 42% of the time, has been his worst pitch, while his slider, thrown only 20% of the time, has been his best. Devers has consistently posted strong numbers against both pitches. On top of that, the Giants slugger has crushed splitters this season, batting .429 with a 1.000 OPS and 195 wRC+. Sasaki throws his splitter 38% of the time.

For the price, and with how well Devers has been seeing the ball lately, I think taking his HRR prop at even money and sprinkling on his home run is well worth dabbling in tonight.

🎯 PLAY: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI's (-111) & Sprinkle Devers Home Run (+390)