Pirates First Five Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (+105)
This evening, we are backing the highest rated offense on the day, according to Batters-Box. The Pittsburgh Pirates enter Monday’s slate with six elite rated hitters, giving their entire lineup an elite average hitter matchup rating. Through their first nine games, Pittsburgh has been fantastic out of the gate, averaging 3 runs in the first five innings.
Tonight, they have the luxury of taking on Padres right-hander Germán Márquez, who owns the worst pitcher rating on the day. Not only that, the 32-year-old allows the most hard contact among Monday’s starters, giving up over 45% hard contact over the last three years. He also brings poor marks in matchup wOBA, ISO, strikeout rate, and ground ball rate.
This will be Márquez’s second start of the season, following a 3-inning outing against the Giants where he allowed 4 runs on 8 hits. Now he has to deal with a Pirates lineup that has come out swinging, posting a .333 OBP, .736 OPS, and 111 wRC+.
To make matters worse, the veteran right-hander has struggled on the road. Last season, across 15 outings, he posted a 7.32 ERA, allowing 6.33 hits and 3.9 runs per outing. I do not see a major bounce-back spot here. I am riding the hot bats of the Rally Rats tonight.
🎯 PLAY: Pirates First 5 Innings Team Total OVER 2.5