Dodgers First 5 innings Team Total Over 2.5 (-130)
If you’re sick of me writing about Dodgers F5 team totals, tell the books to stop hanging 2.5 at a discount. This lineup is too good to be sitting at that number, especially in this matchup.
They draw Marlins right-hander Chris Paddack, who owns the second-worst pitcher rating on the slate per Batters-Box. He grades poorly across every major category, average hitter matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact rate, strike rate, and ground ball rate. Even with slightly better road splits, he’s still allowing 5 hits per outing and getting tagged for 53% hard contact. Opponents carry a sub-.250 xBA, but that comes with a .412 xSLG and .368 wOBA on the road. Regression is knocking.
The 30-year-old hasn’t allowed 3 runs on the road yet this season, but he also hasn’t faced an offense anywhere close to this level. The Dodgers roll out 4 elite-rated hitters, plus 2 more with strong ratings. As a unit, this lineup grades out as elite in average matchup rating. In 82 games with a similar rating, they score 3+ runs 87.8% of the time, 4+ runs 76.61%, 5+ runs 64.63%, and 6+ runs 47.56%. That’s full-game data, but it’s all driven by the opposing pitcher.
It gets worse for Paddack. All 4 of those elite bats hit from the left side, which has been his kryptonite. Lefties have torched him to a 1.74 WHIP, 4.81 FIP, and just a 17.7% strikeout rate. They’re also squaring him up, 53% hard contact, 1.42 HR/9, and a .355 wOBA.
At home, the Dodgers rank top 3 in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and barrel rate. This is another spot to back the Monstars of LA. Feels like the night Paddack’s “road success” finally cracks.
🎯 PLAY: Dodgers First 5 Innings Team Total OVER 2.5 Runs