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# MLB Free Play 4/13/26
- URL: https://www.bettorday.com/mlb-free-play-4-13-26/
- Published: 2026-04-13T16:41:07.000Z
- Updated: 2026-04-13T16:41:07.000Z
- Author: Joshua Nunn - @Steponaduck
- Tags: Free Play

## Baltimore Orioles First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 Runs

Tonight we are backing the second-highest rated offense, according to Batters-Box. The Baltimore Orioles find themselves in a boom spot against Diamondbacks right-hander Ryne Nelson, who has stumbled out of the gate this season. He enters today with the second-worst pitcher rating on the slate, along with the worst average hitter matchup ISO and the second-highest matchup hard contact rate.

Early on, Nelson owns a 4.20 ERA, 5.28 xERA, 6.14 FIP, and 5.12 xFIP. Through his first three starts, he has allowed 52.2% hard contact, a 13% barrel rate, and 2.4 HR/9\. Opposing hitters are posting a .269 xBA, .573 xSLG, and .370 xwOBA against him.

Two of Baltimore’s top-rated bats tonight will hit from the left side, which is a problem for Nelson. He has been getting owned by left-handed hitters, carrying an 8.11 xERA while allowing 50% hard contact and a 57.7% fly ball rate. Overall, Baltimore features two elite-rated hitters and three with strong ratings.

The Orioles have been humming early this season. As a team, they rank sixth in wRC+, sixth in wOBA, and sixth in OPS. Through nine home games, Baltimore is averaging 2.78 runs in the first 5 innings.

If the Orioles keep the bats rolling, this feels like a fun plus-money look to ride out against a pitcher who has struggled early.

**🎯 PLAY: Orioles F5 Team Total OVER 2.5 Runs (+115)**