Baltimore Orioles First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 Runs
Tonight we are backing the second-highest rated offense, according to Batters-Box. The Baltimore Orioles find themselves in a boom spot against Diamondbacks right-hander Ryne Nelson, who has stumbled out of the gate this season. He enters today with the second-worst pitcher rating on the slate, along with the worst average hitter matchup ISO and the second-highest matchup hard contact rate.
Early on, Nelson owns a 4.20 ERA, 5.28 xERA, 6.14 FIP, and 5.12 xFIP. Through his first three starts, he has allowed 52.2% hard contact, a 13% barrel rate, and 2.4 HR/9. Opposing hitters are posting a .269 xBA, .573 xSLG, and .370 xwOBA against him.
Two of Baltimore’s top-rated bats tonight will hit from the left side, which is a problem for Nelson. He has been getting owned by left-handed hitters, carrying an 8.11 xERA while allowing 50% hard contact and a 57.7% fly ball rate. Overall, Baltimore features two elite-rated hitters and three with strong ratings.
The Orioles have been humming early this season. As a team, they rank sixth in wRC+, sixth in wOBA, and sixth in OPS. Through nine home games, Baltimore is averaging 2.78 runs in the first 5 innings.
If the Orioles keep the bats rolling, this feels like a fun plus-money look to ride out against a pitcher who has struggled early.
🎯 PLAY: Orioles F5 Team Total OVER 2.5 Runs (+115)