Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Bases (+120)
Sprinkle HR (+321)
Coming off a tough series in Denver, Yordan Alvarez looks for a fresh start in Seattle. The red hot Astros slugger enters Friday with an elite rating on Batters-Box. In 68 elite-rated games away from home, Alvarez has some impressive trends:
- 1+ Hit: 67.65%
- 2+ Hits: 38.24%
- 2+ Bases: 50%
- 2+ HRR: 51.47%
- Home Run: 26.47%
The big fella takes on Mariners right-hander Emerson Hancock, who owns the third worst strikeout rate on the slate. On top of that, he carries poorly rated marks in average hitter matchup wOBA and ISO.
Last season, Hancock struggled against left-handed hitters, posting a 5.99 xERA while allowing 41.5% hard contact and an 8.8% barrel rate. Opposing lefties produced a .339 xBA, .576 xSLG, and .391 xwOBA. The 26-year-old has come out of the gates improved from a year ago, owning a 0.71 ERA and 0.55 WHIP through his first two starts, which came against the Guardians at home and the Angels on the road.
Everything in the young right-hander’s arsenal lines up with pitches Alvarez has feasted on throughout his career. Hancock throws his fastball 44% of the time, and despite a modest average this season, Alvarez still owns a .750 OPS and 170 wRC+ against fastballs. The same goes for sliders, which Hancock throws 25% of the time, where Alvarez carries a .831 OPS and 141 wRC+. For his career, the big fella is hitting above .300 against both pitch types. Against the rest of Hancock’s arsenal, Alvarez is hitting above .500 with at least a 1.167 OPS.
This feels like a prime spot for the 28-year-old slugger to bounce back, and we are getting solid value at +120.
🎯 PLAY: Yordan Alvarez OVER 1.5 Total Bases