College Football Friday & 32 in 32: SF 49ers

Scott Seidenberg recaps Thursday night's College Football action including a major upset. Plus we hear a CFB Friday preview from the Bettor Day Football Show, and our 32 in 32 preview of the San Francisco 49ers.

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🚨 PANDEMONIUM IN PISCATAWAY

UMass 37, Rutgers 21

Rutgers was a 29.5-point favorite. UMass went 0-12 last year.

The star: Pop Watson — 19 of 22 for 197 yards and THREE touchdowns. And the UMass ground game: 41 carries, 200 yards, a touchdown.

The Rutgers collapse: Turned it over on downs in plus territory, and Dylan Lonergan threw two interceptions before being replaced by AJ Surace as Greg Schiano tries to sort out the quarterback spot.

Scott: "You would not think a Greg Schiano program — where it's all about being physical — gets absolutely OUT-MUSCLED by a UMass team that went 0-12."

✅ COLORADO 14, GEORGIA TECH 13 — AND A BEST BET CASHES

✅ WINNER: First half UNDER 26.5 — it was 10-7 at the break.

The finish: Julian Lewis hit a touchdown pass with 37 seconds left to take a 14-13 lead. Mendoza got Georgia Tech into field goal range — and the last-second kick was BLOCKED.

Colorado wins outright as a 6.5-to-7-point dog.

🚪 BACKDOOR CITY

Scott's contest loss: "My first Westgate contest selection — Wake Forest -24.5, because the contest line was 24.5 while the market was 27.5. You don't pass up a field goal of line value in a contest. It was covering until it wasn't — Akron scores with 29 seconds left. Wake wins 38-16, no cover."

And in Champaign: UAB scored with nine seconds left to cover. Illinois 42-23.

A very good night for underdogs.

🎬 FROM THE FOOTBALL SHOW: TONIGHT AND THE WEEKEND

🥊 THE DEBATE: EASTERN MICHIGAN vs SAN JOSE STATE (Tonight)

The line: EMU down to -2.5 at FanDuel (grab it if you like them). Total 56 / 56.5.

Scott: OVER

"Both teams played last week — it gives them a different dynamic, they've worked out the kinks. San Jose State scored on USC's second and third stringers, but Luke Weaver made plays: 21/32, 234 yards, two scores. And Noah Kim was 27/38 for 279 and two scores. Both having a game helps them get into rhythm early — it won't be a slow start."

⚔️ FEZZIK: "ABSOLUTELY NOT"

"It violates three components:

1. We don't play overs in week zero and week one. You play overs when Utah is laying 37 — like USC-San Jose State, where the dog's goal is just to score some points because they know they can't win. This is a COMPETITIVE game. I love lines close to pick for UNDERS, because both teams say 'let me avoid making the mistake.'

2. 56 is an enormous week one total on a competitively priced game.

3. And the number one reason — Eastern Michigan was POUNDING Sacramento State. They're grinding out the win, and then at the end of the first half a stupid pick six lets Sac State back in. If there's one point of emphasis for EMU this week, it's don't give the other team seven points."

🦆 DUCK: IMPRESSED BY BOTH DEFENSES, NO PLAY

"Watching every snap — I was very impressed with San Jose State's defense. They got their butt kicked in the first half, but they did not surrender an explosive rush. This was a run defense that was overmatched, undersized, and exposed last year — and USC's long rush was 14 yards. Every USC drive was so jerky.

And Eastern Michigan's run defense was bottom five in the FBS last season — shredded with regularity. Sac State wanted to run it and couldn't: 2.9 yards per carry, one explosive rush, everything else stuffed at the line. Sac State didn't score a touchdown on EMU until late in the fourth with the game in hand.

I walked away from both of these crappy defenses actually a little impressed. No position either way."

🏈 MIAMI -24.5 AT STANFORD (Friday, 9 PM ET)

Total: 47.5 (a rogue 48.5 out there if you want the under)

⭐ FEZZIK'S PLAY: STANFORD FIRST HALF +14

The math: "A 24.5 game line means the first half is right around 13.8. So Miami -13.5 first half, or Stanford +14.

The game line at 24 is obviously key — but 24 is INSIGNIFICANT compared to a first half 14 in terms of how often that number matters. Fourteen is enormous. Seven is enormous.

If you like Miami, lay the 13.5 in the first half. But I prefer Stanford — these O-line injuries might catch up and they might wear out in the second half. If there's one bet to make: Stanford first half +14."

🍺 THE FRIDAY NIGHT ANGLE

Fezzik: "You might do even better — it's a late start on a FRIDAY. Everyone's going to get liquored up. They're going to bet Miami and bet Miami first half, and you might get a real nice bargain on Stanford first half.

This is the way I bet — I'm like a quarterback looking over the field for my receivers. If Stanford goes to +14.5 first half, STANFORD IS OPEN and I'm zinging the bet their way — without even liking Stanford for the game.I'm constantly looking for value on the board. Like that Georgia first half -27.5 we talked about earlier — that's just a bad number. Let's whack it."

🦆 DUCK'S FULL TRANSPARENCY

"I took a Stanford position about a month ago — I thought the line was too high. I would NOT make this bet today, because of significant offensive line injuries: Pronghos, the left tackle — an All-American and NFL candidate, 6'7", 315 — was out in fall camp. Fadig may be out. Masia the center may be out.

But I was impressed with Stanford offensively — significantly better coaching, Davis Warren looked very sharp, receivers looked physical and athletic.

On Miami: "You have to squint hard to find deficiencies from last season — but the one they didn't have was the downfield vertical passing attack. Mensah gives them that with Cooper Barkate, Cam Vaughn, and Vantrevious Jacobs alongside Malachi Toney. But is it dialed in immediately in week one? And they are completely rebuilding the offensive line and replenishing the defensive front — Bain and Mesidor aren't there, and you don't just plug and play and expect that production.

The precedent: "This same Miami team a couple seasons ago with Cam Ward and the electric offense laid 19.5 on the road at Cal — and were down 18 in the fourth quarter before rallying to win by one.

Miami is the better team, more talented, more explosive. I just am not prepared to lay close to four touchdowns with so much being replaced. If the O-line were a full deck of cards, I'm all in on Stanford."

📊 THE TRENCH REPORT ANGLE

Scott: "The largest edge in this game is Miami's pass rush, and their run defense is strong too. That points to Stanford team rushing yards UNDER 75.5.

And here's the key thing about the COLLEGE trench report: sacks count against rushing stats. So the biggest gap in the game — Miami's pass rush against Stanford's pass block — every sack HELPS the rushing under."

🏈 USC -21.5/-22.5 vs FRESNO STATE — DUCK LIKES THE UNDER 52

Duck: "USC couldn't register explosive plays and San Jose State was throwing it around. Fresno State is the complete inverse.

Matt Entz came over from North Dakota State and installed a power run-heavy system — 12 personnel, 13 personnel, even 22 personnel. Now it's year two of the install with linemen who fit the scheme. I don't love that they settled on Mandel at quarterback over Christian Martin from Maryland.

The pace is going to be very, very slow — every second of the play clock exhausted, 67-69% run, easy play action, dump it to the tight ends. And that room is exquisite: Applegate 6'4" 250, Brock Liam 6'5" 242, Jace Nixon 6'5" 230— real matchup problems who can move in space and block.

And write this name down: NICK BENEDETTO. He took a handful of turds at Northern Illinois and made that defense formidable in the MAC. The guy is exquisite — he can scheme it up week to week.

I think this could be 14-7 at the half before USC pulls away. 38-7, 31-7, 31-10 — it trends under."

⭐ FEZZIK'S LIVE BET INSTRUCTION

"Wait for USC's first drive — probably a score. Right after USC scores, play the FIRST QUARTER UNDER, because Fresno gets the second and fourth possessions of the quarter and they're not going to score. The remaining quarter total will probably be 7.5 at that point.

Even if USC gets the ball back and scores quickly, they have to wait through two ineffective Fresno possessions to get their third. Assume USC opens with a touchdown, play the first quarter under 14.5, and I think you're in great shape."

📊 THE NEUTRAL SITE ANGLE

Neutral site games in week one since 2021: 15-6 to the UNDER, by 4.5 points per game. Last 10 games (since 2024): 8-2 to the under — including TCU/North Carolina last week.

Baylor vs Auburn (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)

Duck: "Everybody remembers South Florida's flashiness — but they ran the ball 56% of the time. It's a run-first offense that sets up the deep shots. When they can't run it, you get the Florida game they won 18-16 because the offense couldn't get going.

For Baylor, EVERYBODY is new on offense and the talent level is way down. I actually expect them to run it a decent amount — the tempo won't be as hot and heavy as everyone thinks.

And Dave Aranda has the fiery seat. He's a defensive guy whose defense has been absolute garbage his entire tenure — it was like eleven folding chairs out there at times. They spent a lot of money in the portal on defense: Garrick Ponder, Jordan Mack, Daniel Cobb from Kansas State, Cameron Washington from Texas State, Colton McAllister. I wouldn't be stunned if the whole offseason focus was getting stops.

Auburn's defense was elite in the SEC last year and retained a decent amount. It's crazy to talk about the under — but I could see everyone loving the over and it just not getting there. I'd lay it with Auburn. I think they pull away and punch one in late to win by ten."

⭐ Wisconsin +20.5 at Notre Dame (Lambeau Field, Sunday)

Total: 46.5

Fezzik: "I'll just copy off Seidenberg and play the under — it's a neutral site. Diversify the portfolio: some first quarter under, some first half under.

And I like that their coach said he's more focused on season-long success than this game. That PLEASES me — because that's a coach who punts on fourth and six early in the fourth quarter down 17 instead of ruining his cover by going for it."

Louisville at Ole Miss -6.5 (Nashville)

Total: 54.5-55.5

Duck: "Ole Miss was a great story — the way they rallied with a depleted, truncated staff and people one foot out the door was admirable, and Golding earned the permanent job. Everybody loves Trinidad Chambliss and he's electrifying — but now defensive coordinators have an entire offseason to dissect his film and hone in on his tendencies. And Ole Miss loses BOTH tackles. Contain the rush edge and you neutralize a lot of what made him effective.

On Lincoln Kienholz: everybody loves him because Brohm is the quarterback whisperer — but the guy has played in ZERO pressure situations. Every highlight was Ohio State up six touchdowns or bombs against Grambling State. It means nothing.

And I happen to have lived in the area — he went to Pierre High School in South Dakota, which isn't even the premier level of high school athletics there. Second division tier. Small farm town teams with eighth graders on varsity. His high school film means absolutely nothing.

I'm not saying he's bad — I'm saying you CANNOT make a determination. One data point: a bowl game against Missouri where he looked like a deer in headlights.

I really don't want to play +6.5, or even +7, until I get concrete evidence the quarterback has it."

🏈 32 IN 32: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The Market

Division: Rams -105, Seahawks +215, 49ers +305

🇦🇺 THE OPPOSITE MELBOURNE STRATEGY

The 49ers landed yesterday after a 16-hour flight and will practice Saturday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

The Rams: flying in right before the game, in Melbourne roughly 24 hours, staying on their body clock.

The Health Report

The Verdict: UNDER 9.5

Scott: "They're a competitive team, a competent team, likely a playoff team. That said — I don't like them in week one in Australia, and I don't think they win the division. That comes down to the Rams or the Seahawks. The 49ers are the clear number three — but they can steal wins against both.

After Australia they get respite — Miami week two, Arizona week three — before a difficult Denver game in week four. Second international game in week eleven vs the Vikings in Mexico City. Winnable games against Atlanta, Washington, and the Giants.

If forced: UNDER 9.5. I can pick out eight wins. If the ball bounces their way, ten; if not, maybe nine or eight. I expect them in that nine-win range competing for the final NFC wild card — but everyone has to stay healthy, and health has derailed them before."

📅 Coming Up

Monday & Tuesday

• 32 in 32 CONCLUDES with the Seahawks and Patriots — our Super Bowl rematch, Wednesday's NFL Week 1 opener

🆕 BIG NFL HQ UPGRADES NEXT WEEK

Coming to the schedule view at betterday.com:

1. THE BETTOR DAY LINE — our own originated number, the spread we believe the game should be, displayed against the consensus line. "Most of the time it'll be close — but I want to show you where we get our numbers."
2. KALSHI VOLUME on every game — see how much money is moving on a major prediction market and whether a large market order hit one side. "This way we can follow the steam on the markets AND the sportsbooks."
3. A full market report on every game, plus player props, consensus odds, and best available lines across books — with the Trench Reports still in both football HQs.

📊 Member Note

Premium members already have several plays out for this weekend as we try to stay ahead of the line moves. Insider gets the Trench Reports — now running the blended model for college football.

See both tiers →

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