TNF Recap, MLB Divisional Lookahead & CFB Top 25 Preview & Best Bets

Scott Seidenberg recaps the Browns win over the Steelers on TNF and we hear a Top 25 College Football Preview from the Bettor Day Football Show. Plus the MLB Division Series are set.

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🟤 BROWNS 27, STEELERS 24 — AND THE BROWNS ARE IN FIRST PLACE

Cleveland improves to 3-1 and sits in sole possession of first place in the AFC North.

They won OUTRIGHT as three-point dogs, and the game went over 38.5.

The Lines

The rookies stepped up, and the defense held Pittsburgh down for most of the night — the Steelers' two touchdowns both came in the fourth quarter.

🗓️ AND NOW THE BROWNS HAVE A REAL SCHEDULE WINDOW

They get the mini-bye, then the Jets — a winnable game. Then the Ravens.

Scott: "Who would have thought that in week six, a Browns-Ravens game could determine who's in first place in the AFC North?

If Cleveland handles the Jets and Baltimore does what it's supposed to against the Titans and Falcons — we could have TWO ONE-LOSS AFC NORTH TEAMS doing battle on October 18th. That would be a crazy scenario."

⭐ THE FUTURES LOOK: BROWNS +350 TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS

The Comparison That Makes It Interesting

Scott: "It's interesting when you look at futures odds, because it has to do with what's COMING NEXT for these teams."

The Road Ahead

Winnable: Jets · Titans · Raiders · Giants Difficult: Ravens · Steelers · at the Saints · Texans

"Maybe +350 is worth a look, because there ARE winnable games. It might take 10 or 11 wins for a wild card. Are the Browns an eight-nine win team? That would defy expectation — for now.

This is a team that is not the worst team in the NFL, not the worst roster in the NFL. They can compete and give teams fits."

⚾ THE DIVISION SERIES IS SET

The Braves beat the Phillies 6-2 in game three. Philadelphia eliminated early once again.

Saturday's Schedule

Confirmed Game One Starters

Parker Messick (CLE) · Drew Rasmussen (TB) · Jacob Misiorowski (MIL)

The Series Prices

Pennant Favorites

🏈 COLLEGE FOOTBALL: THE TOP 25

From yesterday's BettorDay Football Show with Steve Fezzik and AJ Hoffman.

🎰 #7 ALABAMA at #16 MISSISSIPPI STATE (-6, total 60.5)

Kamario Taylor has risen to the THIRD FAVORITE for the Heisman — 14 passing touchdowns to two interceptions.

The Trap Question

Scott: "Whenever I see this situation with ranked teams, both undefeated, and analytically there hasn't been much separating them — it's very appetizing to take the points with the home team. Am I falling into a trap?"

⚖️ Fezzik: The Alan Boston Principle

"Mississippi State likes taking the ball. It's not a lock they get it, but I might invest. I remember Alabama hanging close with a team and then killing them late in the game.

Maybe play Mississippi State EARLY in the game — first quarter, first half."

🌧️ The Weather Disagreement

Fezzik: "Watch the weather report. Don't bet the over — it might be raining in Starkville."

AJ: "I don't care about the weather. It's an OVER game.

Both teams have huge flaws defensively. Mississippi State is improving, but it's still a pretty bad situation. And Alabama is OUTSIDE THE TOP NINETY of FBS teams in TACKLING.

If you can't tackle Camario Taylor, you've got real problems. And the weather may actually HELP me with the bad tackling Alabama has.

Both teams have been elite offensively. This is going to be a really fun watch. I'm slow to come around on believing Mississippi State is good-good, so I'm not ballsy enough to take the plus points — but if forced to play, that's the side I'd be on. I do think this is a pretty easy over game."

📊 THE DATABASE SEARCH

Two top-25 teams, BOTH undefeated, in week five or beyond — since the start of 2021:

(Small sample, but it points at the home team.)

🌽 #5 OHIO STATE at #14 IOWA (-14.5)

A rare one: an undefeated top-25 team as a two-touchdown home dog.

The Numbers Don't Agree With Each Other

🔥 THE RYAN DAY DEBATE

AJ: "I think this is a GET RIGHT moment for Ryan Day."

Fezzik: "No. Ryan Day is conservative. You've seen this so many times."

AJ's counter: "Last season — with the one exception of the Big Ten championship game against Indiana — every game Ohio State won in Big Ten play, they won by EIGHTEEN OR MORE.

The Ryan Day I'm not going to hurt your feelings days are gone. And now they've got a loss in the column with Texas. When he gets a chance to put his foot on throats, that's what he's going to do."

Fezzik: "Did he put his foot on the throat in Texas when he got up by twenty? No. Tick, tick, tick."

⭐ SCOTT: IOWA +14.5

"I think the HOOK matters here. Fourteen and a half is just a big number at home.

North of two touchdowns is a play — because think about the Iowa defense. They're going to slow this game down as much as they can.

And you can BACKDOOR a fourteen-point spread. Ohio State is up 21 with a minute left? Tick. Fourteen and a half is a tough number to cover."

The Honest Counter

AJ: "Does anybody in this room think Michigan is a good football team? Iowa had a SEVEN PERCENT postgame win expectancy against Michigan. There's no way they should have won that game.

Had Iowa lost to Michigan, we'd look at this number and it would make sense. I just don't see how they get stops against Ohio State."

🐊 #8 FLORIDA at #25 MISSOURI (-5.5)

Scott: "The preseason numbers tell a different story than the numbers right now. Florida has probably seen the biggest upgrade of any top-25 team over the past four weeks."

🚫 AJ: Missouri Shouldn't Be Ranked

"The biggest gap between these two teams isn't TALENT-based. You have a coach in John Sumrall who is clearly a difference maker. And you have a coach in Eli Drinkwitz who I think we're finally starting to see is a little over his head.

That was a game they should have won against Mississippi State. And there were NO data points prior for Missouri that made me go, this team is unstoppable. They beat Kansas, although it wasn't impressive, and they beat Troy by ten the week before.

This is not a team that gets the benefit of the doubt with me. I like Florida a lot here — I like FLORIDA'S TEAM TOTAL especially. I think Florida keeps putting up points."

⚠️ BUT THE SPOT IS WRONG — AND THEY BOTH SAY IT

AJ: "The spot for Florida isn't ideal coming off that Ole Miss game. You can't turn it all the way up to eleven for so long. Auburn and Ole Miss were emotional games. I just don't think Missouri is the team that gets in their way."

Fezzik: "I have NO INTEREST in betting a team after a TEAR DOWN THE GOALPOSTS. Florida was supposed to win seven, maybe seven and a half games this year — and now they're favored to make the playoff.

AJ's right that the power ratings would be correct. But THE SPOT ABSOLUTELY FAVORS MISSOURI.

I don't want to bet on a team that played a PERFECT GAME last week."

⭐ AJ'S BEST BET: USC — ANYTHING UNDER 10

"Washington is INCOMPETENT. They cannot get anything going on the offensive side of the ball.

And as bad as USC's defense can be — as bad as it was against Oregon — I don't think the Huskies have enough to really put that in danger.

I think USC on the other side is going to DOMINATE the style of defense Washington plays. Coming off last week where they were embarrassed, with everybody talking about the hot seat for Lincoln Riley — I think they have their way with this Washington team.

USC anything under ten will probably be my favorite bet this week."

📊 THE BIGGEST EDGE IN THE MODEL: NEW MEXICO -22.5 vs UTEP

Scott: "This is one of my largest edge mismatches in ALL of my analysis this week. I have NINE EDGES in this game — and they ALL go toward New Mexico."

EPA per play · passing down efficiency · defensive havoc · finishing drives · points per opportunity — everything.

AJ: "New Mexico had one of the HOME RUN HIRES with Jason Eck. They've really got something figured out. And UTEP is just a disaster right now."

Fezzik: "From a power rating standpoint I'm pretty close to the number. But again, if forced to a play — I'm not backing this UTEP team with your money."

🎯 THE BOLD PREDICTION

Fezzik: "Clip this. UTEP WILL NOT SCORE. They'll be shut out. I fully believe. 31-0."

AJ: "The UTEP team total under is probably the best way to go at this game."

📅 THIS WEEKEND AT BETTORDAY

• Jake Novakovich's college football free play article — he's RED HOT
• The Prop Shop from Brandon Kravitz for NFL Sunday
• Dan and Macken Survive the NFL — tomorrow morning
• The weekend newsletter with college football free plays - tomorrow morning
• MLB postseason free plays at BettorDay.com and in the app

📊 For Members

The MLB Game Center is live at BettorDay.com & the Bettor Day App with projections and prop projections. The NHL Game Center is off to a good start. And both Trench Reports — NFL and college football — are updated in their respective HQs.

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