NHL Draft & Futures, World Cup Action & MLB Trends
Scott Seidenberg and Kevin Rogers talk NHL as the Draft is tonight and the Panthers are your new Stanley Cup Favorites. Plus all the latest at the World Cup and what MLB Trends are standing out the most as we near the end of June?
Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe!
🏒 PANTHERS NOW STANLEY CUP FAVORITES
The Odds Have Flipped
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Florida Panthers | +700 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | +750 |
🏒 Kevin Rogers on the Tkachuk Trade
Why Brady Wanted Out
Kevin: "I think he was probably done up there in Ottawa. The Senators can only go so far. Not only the idea of playing with his brother, but also playing on this loaded team where he hasn't had all the pressure on him was probably very attractive."
Last Year's Injury Disaster
| Player | Injury |
|---|---|
| Sasha Barkov | Torn ACL (September practice) — done for year |
| Matthew Tkachuk | Offseason surgery — didn't return until January |
| Sam Reinhart | Banged up |
| Brad Marchand | Banged up |
| Seth Jones | Puck to collarbone (Winter Classic vs Rangers) |
Kevin: "In late January, early February, you're kind of like, this isn't gonna happen. They're not gonna make another run. It just was a season that didn't work out."
🏒 NHL DRAFT TONIGHT
Gavin McKenna to Toronto
| Pick | Player | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Gavin McKenna | -20,000 |
| #2 | Ivar Stenberg | -900 |
| #3 | Caleb Malhotra | +110 |
| #3 | Chase Reed | +110 |
McKenna Goal Props
| Prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| 20+ goals | -245 |
| 25+ goals | +196 |
| 30+ goals | +600 |
Scott: "The kid probably shouldn't start the season at the NHL, but that's not the case anymore. You draft somebody number one overall, they're fast-tracked right to the NHL."
Kevin on McKenna's Situation
Kevin: "On Toronto, you have Austin Matthews, Tavares, Nylander — guys that can score. How are you gonna get your goals? You gotta share the puck."
The comparison: Connor Bedard had 22 goals rookie year on a bad Chicago team with no scoring around him. McKenna joins a loaded Toronto roster.
⚽ WORLD CUP: FRIDAY MATCHES
| Match | Favorite | Draw | Dog |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium vs New Zealand | BEL -600 | +650 | +1400 |
| Egypt vs Iran | EGY +145 | +165 | +280 |
| Spain vs Uruguay | SPA -220 | +330 | +650 |
| Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia | CV +165 | +230 | +170 |
| Senegal vs Iraq | SEN -475 | +550 | +1200 |
| France vs Norway | FRA -180 | +360 | +420 |
⚽ Scott's World Cup Strategy
Team Totals Keep Printing
Scott: "That's the thing that's been coming through for me. Isolate one team you think is gonna score."
⚽ USA Bracket Watch
Round of 32: USA vs Bosnia
Possible Round of 16: Could be Belgium
Kevin: "We all know USA is not gonna win it. Beating Australia and Paraguay is nice, but let's see what they do against some of the big dogs. Maybe they pull an upset."
🏀 GIANNIS MVP: THE BET
Scott's Play: Giannis +1200
Scott: "He doesn't have to put the same intensity defensively as he had to in Milwaukee because you got Bam to pick up the defensive slack. Spoelstra will probably unlock the best version of Giannis. He's gonna be motivated playing for a new team."
The case:
- Top 5 player when healthy
- Former MVP
- Always top of player efficiency metrics
- Upgrade from Doc Rivers to Spoelstra
🏀 Kevin on Giannis Stats
| Season | PPG | RPG | APG | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This year | 27.6 | — | — | 36 |
| Previous | 30.4 | — | — | — |
| 2 years ago | 30.4 | 11 | 6.5 | — |
| Championship (2021) | 28 | 11 | — | — |
Kevin: "He hasn't played 80 games since 2017. If he could play 75 games this year, he's definitely in the conversation."
🏀 Heat Title Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Thunder | +260 |
| Spurs | +260 |
| Celtics | +600 |
| Knicks | +800 |
| Heat | 20/1 |
Heat win total: 50+ wins at +120
Kevin on the East
Kevin: "The East is kind of like a bunch of teams that can make a run. There's nobody running away with it like Oklahoma City in the West."
On the Knicks: "I don't know if this is a dynasty necessarily, or things kind of broke their way. They missed the Celtics in the second round. They didn't play OKC."
On the Celtics: "It's just an odd situation. They're probably gonna trade Jalen Brown."
⚾ MLB TRENDS WITH KEVIN ROGERS
First Five Database
Washington Nationals: The story of the season
| Span | Record |
|---|---|
| Overall | 44-27-10 |
| Last stretch | 36-17-8 |
Other trends:
- Arizona was 116-1 in first five (ended now)
- Cubs on a nice first five run recently
⚾ Strikeout Trends
Teams to TARGET (over on Ks)
| Team | Notes |
|---|---|
| LA Angels | Biggest offender — take the over |
| Baltimore | Bad — strike out a lot |
| Cincinnati | Bad vs starting pitching |
Teams to FADE (under on Ks)
| Team | Notes |
|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | Don't strike out a lot |
| Rays | Towards the bottom |
| Cardinals | Don't strike out vs LHP |
| Arizona | Good limiting strikeouts |
⚾ Kevin's Pitching System
Find the Middling Guys
Kevin: "I always like finding middling pitchers"
The fade: After a big outing → fade their outs next start
The bounce back: After getting knocked around early → maybe better next start
Kevin: "Find the inconsistent middle-of-the-road pitchers. Those are the ones where you could find value because no one's paying attention."
📅 Coming Up
Fezzik's Betting Boot Camp
We sent an email out yesterday detailing the discount for Bettor Day subscribers. Check out the details HERE.
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Features
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- Game Centers: All sports
- Football HQ's: Brand new for the season
- Everything from BettorDay.com In one all-inclusive app
Scott: "I think it's gonna be a real game changer when it comes to doing all your handicapping, checking your live odds and scores, and everything you need to become a better bettor."
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