NBA Finals, College World Series & UFC Freedom 250
Scott Seidenberg and AJ Hoffman talk NBA Finals as the series shifts to San Antonio for Game 5 on Friday with the Knicks leading 3-1. AJ previews UFC Freedom 250 on the lawn of the White House on Sunday and Jake Hasan previews the College Baseball World Series as he sets off to Omaha for the weekend.
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🏒 Stanley Cup Final
Carolina 4 - VGK 2 - Hurricanes take 3-2 Series Lead.
Game goes over 5.5, but under 6.5 (Could have had both)
Jordan Staal with his 8th goal of the playoffs, fifth straight game in this series with a goal.
Conn Smythe Odds
Jordan Staal -105
Game 6 Sunday in Vegas
VGK -110 / Total 5.5
🏀 NBA Finals: THE HANGOVER
AJ Hoffman joins to break down the aftermath of the Spurs collapse
Are The Spurs Dead?
AJ: "Their souls fell out in that game. Imagine trying to come back from that. Imagine what it's like in the locker room. I have a hard time imagining a world where the Spurs even extend this series."
The halftime scene: "I bet they were playing music. They set the record for most three-pointers made in the first half of an NBA Finals game. In their minds, that made them the 2016 Golden State Warriors."
The problem: "Except Steph Curry and Klay Thompson aren't on this team."
🏀 The Numbers Say Spurs Should Be Up
| Stat | Result |
|---|---|
| Spurs led by double digits | 26%+ of minutes played |
| Series lead | Down 3-1 |
Also: Knicks are the second team ever to win multiple Finals games by one point.
🏀 Game 5 Preview (Saturday)
Knicks at Spurs
| Line | Total |
|---|---|
| SA -5.5 | 216.5 |
First Quarter: Still The Play
| System | Record |
|---|---|
| Team off loss, favored Q1 | 22-9-1 |
| Spurs Q1 (postseason) | 15-5-2 |
| Spurs Q1 ATS | 12-7 |
| Spurs last 10 Q1 ATS | 9-1 |
AJ: "I would not bet against the Spurs in the first quarter. I haven't done it all year. I won't start doing it now."
The Conspiracy Theory
Scott: "Don't you think the NBA wants the Knicks to win at Madison Square Garden? All the celebrities courtside, the imagery of hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy at the world's most famous arena?"
AJ: "I'm sure they do. And the referee likely in rotation is Scott Foster."
Scott: "The Extender."
🥊 UFC FREEDOM 250
Sunday at the White House Lawn
The card: Only 7 fights (normally 12-14). Most fights are lopsided.
Weather: ~70°F, humid
AJ on environment: "Most of these guys grew up fighting in the jungle. Justin Gaethje's very first fight was outdoors at a state fair."
🥊 AJ's Best Bets
🎯 BEST BET: Alex Pereira (-113) vs Cyril Gane
AJ: "This is my favorite bet on the card."
| Factor | Edge |
|---|---|
| Power | All on Pereira's side |
| Gane's style | Point fighter, not a finisher |
| History | Pereira trying to become first 3-division champ (185 → 205 → HW) |
AJ: "If you don't knock Alex Pereira out, he is going to come at you for the entirety of a fight. Gane has defensive fragility. All of the knockout power is on Pereira's side."
Ilia Topuria by KO vs Justin Gaethje
AJ: "This is a horrible, horrible, horrible matchup for Justin Gaethje. Gaethje hasn't wrestled in 20 years. Topuria is probably the most complete fighter in the world."
Under 1.5 Rounds: Ruffy vs Michael Chandler
AJ: "Michael Chandler is a shot fighter. His chin is not what it was. Mauricio Ruffy is a savage."
Price: Around even money
Derek Lewis by KO (+420)
AJ: "Derek is kind of shot as a fighter, but he does have the kind of power that if he catches you, it can put you out. Josh Hokik is not a big heavyweight."
The analogy: "It's like playing Minesweeper. You're clicking around and you hope you don't hit that button that blows you up."
Fades
| Fighter | AJ's Take |
|---|---|
| Bo Nickel | "Overpriced. Kyle Daukaus is stylistically tough — front headlock game against an American wrestler" |
| Sean O'Malley | "Hasn't looked like a world beater. His flaws have been exposed. How does he respond?" |
⚾ COLLEGE WORLD SERIES BEGINS TODAY
Jake Hassan joins from Omaha
The Brackets
Bracket 1 (Friday):
- West Virginia vs Troy
- Ole Miss vs North Carolina
Bracket 2 (Saturday):
- Alabama vs Oklahoma
- Georgia vs Texas (All-SEC bracket)
⚾ SEC vs Field: -190
Jake: "Honestly, I would take it. This should probably be -250. There's a chance you get SEC vs SEC championship. You might cash this bet on Tuesday before a game is even played in the national championship series."
⚾ Championship Odds
| Team | Odds | Jake's Take |
|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | +290 | — |
| Georgia | +300 | — |
| Texas | +320 | Jake has 20/1 ticket |
| West Virginia | 7/1 | "Way live" |
| Ole Miss | 8/1 | — |
| Alabama | 13/1 | — |
| Oklahoma | 18/1 | "Should be 10-11/1" |
| Troy | 27/1 | — |
⚾ Jake's Value Plays
West Virginia 7/1
Jake: "This pitching staff is absolutely unbelievable. Pound for pound, front Friday night starter to the last freshman in the bullpen, I think West Virginia has the best pitching staff here. I expect them to come out of the left side of the bracket."
Plus: Pat McAfee boots on the ground. WVU contingent will be massive.
Oklahoma 18/1
Jake: "This should be priced closer to Alabama/Ole Miss range. They won the Georgia Tech region by outslugging the best offense in the country. Then in Lawrence, the pitching staff was lights out."
The upside: Cameron Johnson and LJ Mercurius can throw 7-inning shutout ball.
⚾ Jake's Game Picks
Friday
| Game | Play | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| WVU vs Troy | WVU run line | Troy didn't face real competition to get here |
| Ole Miss vs UNC | Under 8.5 | Hunter Elliott vs Jason DeCaro — two future MLB pitchers |
Saturday
| Game | Play | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma vs Alabama | Oklahoma ML | "I would make Oklahoma a favorite. This is mispriced." |
| Texas vs Georgia | Georgia +160 | "How do you make Georgia plus money against anyone?" |
Jake on Georgia: "The way this team is playing right now — won the SEC, won the SEC tournament, cruised through regionals. Georgia should not be a plus money dog."
⚾ Players to Watch
| Player | Team | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Justin LeBron | Alabama | SS, top 5 pick in a couple weeks |
| Daniel Jackson | Georgia | Golden Spikes finalist |
| Dylan Valantis | Texas | First pitcher off the board next draft |
⚾ Weather Factor
Jake: "People need to monitor the weather, just like you would with an MLB game. If the wind is blowing out in Omaha, those balls are gonna fly. Saturday, we're supposed to get weather."
📋 Today's Plays
College World Series (Friday)
| Bet | Notes |
|---|---|
| WVU run line | Best pitching staff in field |
| Under 8.5 Ole Miss/UNC | Two MLB arms |
| SEC vs Field -190 | Could cash Tuesday |
NBA Finals (Saturday)
| Bet | Notes |
|---|---|
| Spurs Q1 | 15-5-2 this postseason, 9-1 last 10 ATS |
UFC Freedom 250 (Sunday)
| Bet | Notes |
|---|---|
| Alex Pereira -113 | AJ's best bet |
| Topuria by KO | vs Gaethje |
| Under 1.5 rds Hoffy/Chandler | Even money |
| Derek Lewis by KO +420 | Sprinkle |
📅 Coming Up
Friday
- CWS: Bracket 1 — WVU/Troy, Ole Miss/UNC
- World Cup: USA vs Paraguay (SoFi)
Saturday
- CWS: Bracket 2 — Oklahoma/Alabama, Texas/Georgia
- NBA: Finals Game 5
Sunday
- UFC: Freedom 250 (White House lawn)
MAJOR announcements coming soon! 👀
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