Friday, July 3rd, 2026

Talking Hoops with Michael Fiddle

Scott Seidenberg and Michael Fiddle talk NBA trades and free agency and it's affect on the futures market. Plus some WNBA thoughts from Fiddle as well.

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🏀 THE GIANNIS TRADE: FIDDLE'S ON AN ISLAND

Why Miami Won

Fiddle: "There's been so many negative reactions to Giannis going to Miami and I see it completely differently. Being good is not good enough for Miami. Getting Giannis absolutely raises the championship equity of your team. He's still a top five player at worst in the league."

The timing: Milwaukee wanted the deal done BEFORE the draft so they could use the picks themselves.

Fiddle: "They absolutely raise their championship equity for now and for the next three to four years. Good move for Miami."

🏀 THE HEAT CULTURE SECRET

Fiddle Cracked the Code

The question: Where does the Miami Heat G League team play?

Fiddle: "Work your ass off and you can stay in Miami with private chefs, private planes, everything. Or you're gonna be in Sioux Falls, South Dakota in the WINTER trying to work your way back. Keep your ass in shape. No partying. No drama. The pros and cons for their career are starker than anywhere else in the NBA."

🏀 THE CELTICS: WHY?!

The Trade Nobody Understands

Fiddle: "The lone situation that is difficult to justify right now is the Boston Celtics. To send Jaylen Brown to the team that just beat you in a seven-game playoff series is pretty eye-opening."

Fiddle's Two Theories

Theory 1 — Cost-cutting:

Fiddle: "The Celtics don't own their own arena. They literally rent space in TD Garden. A massive extension coming for Jaylen Brown, a tax bill due — I wonder if new ownership just can't justify the costs. I really wonder if it's a cost-cutting move."

Theory 2 — Bad blood:

Fiddle: "Maybe Jaylen sent an FU to the new owner in a text message and the owner was just like, get him off the team."

The mystery: "Why now? Why not wait until training camp? This deal would still be on the table."

The Paul George Defense

Fiddle: "I'm higher on Paul George than consensus. He's a versatile, switchable defender. He's an absolute sniper. High IQ basketball player. I don't think it's as bad from a basketball standpoint as everyone's making it seem — but it's hard to see why they did it."

Shout out: Jameer Nelson, new Sixers GM — "Amazing first trade for them."

🏀 UPDATED TITLE ODDS

Scott: "If I go into a playoff series with Embiid, VJ Edgecombe, Tyrese Maxey, and Jaylen Brown — that stands up with any team in the NBA."

🏀 THE LEBRON SWEEPSTAKES: PREDICTION MARKET PLAY

Current Polymarket Odds

Volume: ~$8 million traded

The insight: Cavs jumped to 20/1 on FanDuel BECAUSE the prediction markets flipped from Warriors to Cavs.

The Wisdom of the Crowd

Fiddle: "High liquidity drives efficiency. 200 idiots guessing something is smarter than one smart person predicting something."

The book: The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki (2004)

The strategy: "If one team surges past 50% on the prediction markets, leverage that into championship futures at a sportsbook BEFORE the news drops. That becomes advantageous."

🏀 LAKERS: THE CAP MECHANICS MASTERCLASS

LeBron Did Them a Favor

Fiddle: "LeBron telling the Lakers he was not gonna go back was such a polite thing to do. The Lakers could renounce his rights and let go of his cap hold. He actually set the Lakers up for success."

Why They HAD to Spend Now

1. Austin Reeves max EXTENSION — big money starts NEXT season, so cap space must be used THIS year
2. New CBA rule — teams must hit the salary cap floor BEFORE the season starts (not by season's end)
3. Restricted free agency — Kessler and Duren could be matched by their teams, so sign-and-trade was the only path

Fiddle: "You're at a very low leverage standpoint going in, talking to GMs that have all the power over you."

Why Kessler Over Duren

Fiddle: "With Luka and Reeves as the engine, rim protection is the utmost priority. Is Jalen Duren a better rim protector than Walker Kessler? No way at all."

The verdict: "They're probably better with LeBron this year, but in their two, three, four-year outlook, they are in a much better spot."

🏀 MVP FUTURES

The Two Bets

Fiddle: "Seven to one type of Luka MVP before the season starts would probably be my only MVP bet."

Scott: "Why can't this be a Giannis bounce-back year?

Fiddle's projection: "He'll average 28 and 14 if he's healthy for the full season."

🏀 WNBA FUTURES WITH FIDDLE

Title Odds

Fiddle: "I grabbed the Lynx at +750 a few weeks ago. My WNBA futures portfolio might be the highest value portfolio I've ever put together."

The Plays

1. Breanna Stewart DPOY (11/1)

Fiddle on A'ja Wilson at -145: "That is insanely stupid to me. The Aces are the 10th best defense in the league. She's won DPOY three of the last four years — if voter fatigue is real, and she's winning MVP again, the voters aren't giving her both awards AGAIN."

Also loves: Gabby Williams (Valkyries) — "By far the best perimeter defender in the WNBA."

The pick: "Stewie is number one in defensive win shares. Breanna Stewart DPOY."

2. Golden State Valkyries Title (15/1-20/1)

Fiddle: "Natalie Nakase might be one of the best coaches I've ever seen in any sport. The Valkyries play with all the sharpest edges — two-for-ones, end of quarters, fouls, timeouts, challenges. Best home court in the WNBA. Once you get into a series, the coaching stuff dials up."

Tonight: Lynx at Liberty (-1.5 MIN)

Fiddle's lean: Over 173.5

Fiddle: "The Liberty offense is getting its footing. But I do NOT like the way the Liberty are coached. There are times I legitimately think I could do a better job than Chris DeMarco."

📅 Coming Up

Today

• World Cup: Messi in action vs Cape Verde
• WNBA: Lynx at Liberty

This Weekend

• July 4th: Full MLB slate — be safe!
• World Cup: Round of 16 begins

Monday

• World Cup: USA vs Belgium (no Balogun)

Fezzik's Betting Boot Camp

We sent an email out detailing the discount for Bettor Day subscribers. THIS IS YOUR FINAL CHANCE TO GET THE DISCOUNT! Check out the details HERE.

📱 BIG ANNOUNCEMENT: BETTOR DAY APP COMING!

Apple App Store + Google Play Store

Launch: Mid July — August 1st at the latest

Features

• Push notifications: Picks delivered directly to your phone
• Game Centers: All sports
• Football HQ's: Brand new for the season
• Everything from BettorDay.com In one all-inclusive app

Scott: "I think it's gonna be a real game changer when it comes to doing all your handicapping, checking your live odds and scores, and everything you need to become a better bettor."