SEC Football Hype & UFC Fight Night Best Bets!
Scott Seidenberg and AJ Hoffman talk Arch Manning and Texas Football as the Hype Train rolls in from another SEC Media Days. Plus AJ previews UFC Fight Night with Best Bets!
Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe!
🏈 THE ARCH MANNING QUESTION
Is This Finally The Year?
The setup: Last year, Scott called it — Arch was a year away. "I jokingly said Arch Manning will be the Heisman winner in 2027 and the first overall pick in 2027. Well, now we're at that season."
AJ Hoffman: "Last year's expectations were outrageous. Texas fans essentially chased Quinn Ewers out of town with a pitchfork — probably the third most accomplished quarterback in the last fifty years of Texas football — because Arch was sitting there waiting."
The Runner Myth
AJ: "The thought was Arch Manning is a runner. He's not. There are quarterbacks who are mobile enough to get away, and there are quarterbacks who are RUNNERS. Arch is never gonna be Josh Allen or Lamar. He's like a young Aaron Rodgers — a guy who can get himself out of trouble if he needs to."
The Heisman Math Problem
| Player | Heisman Odds |
|---|---|
| CJ Carr (Notre Dame) | +700 |
| Arch Manning | +800 |
| Julian Sayin (Ohio State) | +1300 |
| Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State) | +1300 |
Texas win total: 9.5 (JUICED TO THE UNDER — over pays +118)
AJ's logic: "How often do nine-win teams have a Heisman winner? Arch would have to put up cartoonish numbers while the defense lets him down. That's a viable path, but not one I'm betting at the second favorite. I'm out on Arch futures."
The timing note: "If Texas beats Ohio State in week two, you'll pay a LOT more for Arch. It's a matter of when you want to buy in."
🏈 THE VALUE PLAYS
| Play | Odds | Case |
|---|---|---|
| Julian Sayin | 13/1 | "If Ohio State has the season people anticipate — there are worse bets" (Scott) |
| Jayden Maiava (USC) | 25/1 | "A LINCOLN RILEY quarterback at 25/1. I've seen Lincoln Riley quarterbacks do absurd things" (AJ) |
🏈 SEC FUTURES
The Board
| Team | SEC Odds |
|---|---|
| Georgia | +300 |
| Texas | +330 |
| Alabama | +850 |
| LSU | +900 |
| Ole Miss | +900 |
| Oklahoma | +900 |
AJ: "Georgia is the rightful favorite."
The Annual SEC Trap
AJ: "Every year there's a team we hype up all offseason — last year it was South Carolina — and it turns out your quarterback just can't play. You get into the SEC and you just can't hack it. We'll see it again this year. Catch the falling knife."
The candidates:
- John Mateer (Oklahoma): "It wouldn't shock me if he's broken after the playoff loss to Alabama. You've got them on the ropes, you throw a pick six, they dominate. That kind of thing can scar you long term."
- Sam Leavitt (LSU): Scott: "Are we sure he's the guy?" AJ: "No one's sure. If he's not, none of LSU's talent matters."
🥊 UFC ABU DHABI: FIGHT DAY (9 AM VEGAS TIME)
Main Event: Ankalaev vs Guskov
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | -550 |
| Guskov | +425 |
AJ's breakdown: "Guskov is a hammer — one speed, comes forward, super heavy hands. But he's a subpar grappler with barely any three-round experience, much less five. He went to a third round for the first time in over a DECADE in his last fight. If he has any shot, it's early. As the fight goes on, I can't picture a path where he's competitive."
The Plays
| Bet | Odds | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Ankalaev inside the distance | -250 | AJ's play |
| Under 2.5 rounds | -154 | "Takes out the round-one Guskov danger — not a bad call" |
🥊 THE V PARLAY RETURNS
The Abu Dhabi Special
The bet: All five main-card fighters whose names end in V.
| Leg | Fighter |
|---|---|
| 1 | Kuniev over Fortune |
| 2 | Zaynukov over Rzepecki |
| 3 | Dulatov over Turman |
| 4 | Temirov over Steve Erceg |
| 5 | Ankalaev over Guskov |
The price: +330 (FanDuel)
AJ Actually Approves This One
Why the cards look like this: "A lot of these (Russian) Dagestani and Chechen fighters have a hard time getting American visas. When UFC does Abu Dhabi shows, they load up all these guys at once — that's why you get the "V" parlays over there."
AJ: "I'm normally against your "V" parlays. But I kinda like this one. The key is the co-main — Temirov is basically even money and he's one of my preferred dogs on the whole card. Serious round-one power. You're getting sneaky value on the ends. I'll put my stamp on your nonsensical "V" wager this one time."
📺 Programming Notes
- AJ joins EVERY Thursday morning this season — Thursday Night Football previews, same game parlays, plus college football Thursday night previews.
- AJ's picks coming to BettorDay.com and the App all fall: CFB, CBB, NFL
- Radio rebrand: The Morning Huddle is now The AJ and Rob Show — 94.1 San Antonio's Sports Star. Catch AJ Every Morning! Follow AJ on X @AJIsTheReal
🏈 32 IN 32
Starting Monday, July 27th
The format: 32 NFL teams. 32 shows. One team per episode, every single day, running through Tuesday, September 8th — right up to NFL Kickoff on Wednesday, September 9th: the Super Bowl rematch, Patriots vs Seahawks.
Week 1 Schedule — AFC North (+ one)
| Day | Team |
|---|---|
| Monday | Baltimore Ravens |
| Tuesday | Cincinnati Bengals |
| Wednesday | Cleveland Browns |
| Thursday | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| Friday | Houston Texans (AFC South begins) |
📺 THE BETTOR DAY FOOTBALL SHOW
Starting August 13th. SUBSCRIBE ON YOUTUBE!
Every Thursday — 2 PM ET / 11 AM PT
Live on the BettorDay YouTube + Twitter pages
The crew:
- Scott Seidenberg
- Steve Fezzik
- Joshua Nunn, aka Duck
Scott, Fezz, and Duck. Live chat open — bring your questions and join the conversation. Also available in podcast form.
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