Open Championship Weekend Bets & World Cup Final Preview
Scott Seidenberg and David Bearman talk Open Championship and preview the World Cup Final.
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⛳ THE OPEN: SUBER LEADS, BUT DON'T BUY IT
Round 1 at Royal Birkdale
The leader: Jackson Suber, -5 (65) — at 18/1 after one round.
Scott: "I don't recall seeing a round one leader with odds this high in recent memory."
Bearman's Breakdown: Why the Number Is Right
Bearman: "Let's call it what it is — he's probably not gonna win. He putted out of his mind (+3 strokes on the field), but he LOST half a stroke off the tee. If you'd told me a guy would be -0.4 off the tee at Birkdale with that rough, I'd have said no shot he's your leader. He made every putt he looked at."
The sustainability rule: "The putter is what changes most over four rounds. How you swing the club doesn't change as drastically. Always look for guys who can get hot with the putter — or fade guys when the hot putter goes cold."
The kicker: "He birdied 16 and eagled 17 — he wasn't even close to the lead until the last two holes. And 18/1 is long, but not long enough for me."
What changes Bearman's mind: Positive strokes gained off the tee in round two — his approach numbers (+2.0) were already legit.
⛳ THE SCHEFFLER READ
T13 at -2, Now +500
Bearman's positioning:
| Bet | Number | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| Scheffler top 10 | -135 | Grabbed Wednesday night pre-tournament |
| Given out on air/Discord | -145 | Still liked it |
| Current | -175/-185 | "Still reasonable" |
Bearman: "Because he missed the cut at the Scottish, the market finally shifted to make Scottie reasonable. Eight consecutive top 15s at majors. He was 8/1 when he teed off — I said if you're gonna take him outright, take him NOW."
The Round 1 Tell
Bearman: "He striped it off the tee (+2.0 on the field), striped it on approach, and just didn't make any putts — middle of the pack, ~75th in putting. This looked like the Scottie just before he became Tiger Scottie. The Scottie who wins majors is the one drilling birdie putts. If he makes a putt or two, his numbers look like a guy who can WIN this event."
⛳ THE RORY PARADOX
Best Ball-Striker in the Field... at +2
The insane splits from Round 1:
| Category | Strokes Gained | Field Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Off the tee | +2.60 | 2nd |
| Approach | +1.80 | 20th |
| Tee to green | +2.24 | — |
| Around greens | -2.0 | 152nd of 156 |
| Putting | -2.80 | 141st of 156 |
Bearman: "Nobody combined off-the-tee and approach better than Rory today — and he's two over par. He blasted out of two bunkers OVER the green. You're never gonna see Rory this bad around and on the greens again."
The Plays
| Bet | Odds | Who |
|---|---|---|
| Rory top 10 | +300 | Bearman (pre-round 2) |
| Rory top 20 | +110 | Scott |
Scott: "Top 20 is not asking much. He just has to pass a couple guys."
⚽ SUNDAY: THE WORLD CUP FINAL
Spain vs Argentina
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spain | -150 |
| Argentina | +130 |
Bearman: "Argentina makes the cat's nine lives look like nothing. They're never done, they're never dead. I'm not a conspiracy guy, but FIFA is setting it up on a silver platter — there's a reason FIFA stands for Fix It For Argentina. I'm not betting against Lionel Messi."
The stat: Argentina hasn't held a LEAD until the 85th minute or later in these knockout matches.
The Bets
| Bet | Odds | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina/Draw double chance | -170 | Scott + Bearman's play |
| Regulation draw | +190/+195 | Extra time feels likely |
| Argentina ML | +130 | "Never bet against Messi" |
Bearman: "You want the under because Spain's defense — but Argentina scores two goals in the last ten minutes of every match. It's almost impossible to take an under. The only way you lose the double chance is Spain winning 1-0 or Argentina cracking like France did."
On Spain: "Everyone said France had three of the top ten players in the world — and Spain utterly shut them down. And that last 35 minutes from Argentina against England was the 2007 Patriots."
⚽ GOLDEN BOOT: THE TIEBREAKER FINALE
Messi Holds the Cards
| Player | Goals | Assists | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Messi | 8 | 4 | -200 |
| Mbappé | 8 | 3 | +150 |
The update: Reports say Mbappé DOES intend to play in Saturday's third-place game (FRA -160 vs England).
Scott: "But how long does he play? Maybe he gets a goal and comes out — and maybe that one goal wins him the boot if Messi doesn't score Sunday."
Golden Ball: Back on the board — Messi -900. Locked up.
⚽ THE BEARMAN RANT: BAN THIRD-PLACE GAMES
Bearman: "If I was pronounced czar of all things sports tomorrow, the FIRST thing I would do is ban consolation games. You just died — you don't need to get back up and play again. Your twelve-year-old just lost the Little League US championship? 'Go play Korea in the third-place game.' NO. Just give them both bronze medals."
⚾ BEARMAN'S SECOND-HALF FUTURES
The Board
| Bet | Case |
|---|---|
| Yankees AL East | "Read the BettorDay newsletter — I agree. Top to bottom the best team in the AL" |
| Phillies NL East | "They overtake the Braves. Phillies, Braves, Marlins finish" |
| Marlins wild card | Not the division, but October is in the cards |
| Yankees-Dodgers World Series | "Lame, but that's where the sport is — the two best rosters in baseball" |
📅 Coming Up
Today
- The Open: Round 2 at Royal Birkdale
- Off the Board: Colby & Jake stream
Saturday
- World Cup: Third-place game — France vs England (Mbappé reportedly playing)
- The Open: Moving day
Sunday
- WORLD CUP FINAL: Spain vs Argentina
- The Open: Final round
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