World Cup, Red Hot Marlins, NBA Summer League & UFC 329 Best Bets!
Scott Seidenberg talks World Cup Quarterfinal action and recaps the NBA Summer League matchup between Darryn Peterson and AJ Dybantsa. The Marlins are the best story in baseball, how can we bet them? and AJ Hoffman previews UFC 329, the return of Connor McGregor
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⚽ FRANCE PUNCHES SEMIFINAL TICKET
France 2, Morocco 0
The story: Total domination that took 60 minutes to show on the scoreboard.
| Detail | Note |
|---|---|
| France xG | Nearly 4 |
| Morocco shots on goal | ONE all match |
| Mbappé penalty | MISSED (first half) |
| Mbappé goal | 60' |
| Dembélé goal | 66' |
The scare: Mbappé left with an ankle knock — "much to the chagrin of my sprinkle on Mbappé 2+ goals" — but downplayed it afterward: "All good."
Scott's France TT over 1.5 (-132): ✅ CASHED
⚽ TODAY: SPAIN vs BELGIUM
The Odds
| Market | Line |
|---|---|
| Spain to advance | -350 |
| Belgium to advance | +265 |
| Spain (3-way) | -160 |
| Belgium (3-way) | +470 |
| Draw | +280 |
Scott's Play: Both Teams to Score — NO (+110)
Scott: "Spain has not conceded a goal the ENTIRE tournament. Will they concede one today?"
Winner gets: France in the semifinal.
⚽ Updated Futures
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| France | +130 (already through) |
| Argentina | +420 |
| Spain | +430 |
| England | +480 |
| Norway | 16/1 |
| Belgium | 35/1 |
Tomorrow's Quarterfinals
| Match | Favorite | Dog |
|---|---|---|
| England vs Norway | ENG -230 | +186 |
| Argentina vs Switzerland | ARG -325 | +250 |
Scott: "I like England over Norway, and Argentina to get by Switzerland."
🥊 UFC 329: McGREGOR-HOLLOWAY 2
The Return of the Notorious One
Saturday night, T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas — Conor McGregor's first fight in FIVE YEARS.
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Max Holloway | -235 |
| Conor McGregor | +182 |
AJ Hoffman: "He hasn't fought in five years. He hasn't WON in six years — and that win was against Donald Cerrone, who'd lost seven in a row. Go back to 2016 and Eddie Alvarez for the last time he beat a reasonably in-prime opponent."
The Cardio Question
AJ: "In the last Poirier fight, he was already looking gassed in ROUND ONE. There are real questions about Conor's cardio. The wild card is this is at 170 — Max isn't gonna have to cut weight, and cardio is never an issue for Max Holloway."
The Holloway profile: "Not a big finisher — win by decision, win by decision, win by decision. Historically very hard to finish. When Ilia Topuria knocked him out, that was the FIRST time he'd ever been stopped."
AJ's Best Bets — Main Event
| Bet | Line | Case |
|---|---|---|
| Holloway -5.5 points | — | AJ's favorite bet — wins by finish OR lopsided decision |
| Under 2.5 rounds | -128 | "This fight doesn't go 25 minutes" |
| Under on sig strikes | — | Correlated with the under |
AJ: "Max is gonna have his way with Conor. Conor's gonna have a real hard time hitting him. If it's a decision, it's a very lopsided decision."
🥊 THE REST OF THE CARD
Paddy Pimblett (+124) vs Benoit Saint-Denis
AJ: "A rare time you're seeing actual VALUE on Paddy. He baits people into being overly aggressive — that's why he talks the way he does. And after the Gaethje fight, one thing you can't question: Paddy Pimblett has a CHIN. Saint-Denis will get frustrated, make a mistake, and Paddy finds the submission."
King Green vs Terrence McKinney — The Quick One
The stat: "McKinney's fights never last longer than a round. Win or lose, it's in the first round. He is a kill-or-be-killed guy."
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| Under 1.5 rounds | -425 (juiced) |
| Under 0.5 rounds | +172 — "a juicy number" |
| McKinney inside the distance | AJ's play |
| First minute of R1 | +420 |
| Second minute of R1 | +340 |
AJ: "I don't think the fight lasts over two and a half minutes. I'd price under half a round at +125, +130 — so +170 is real value."
Garbrandt vs Yanez (Prelims)
AJ: "How the mighty have fallen — Cody Garbrandt in the prelims. He's strictly a striker now, and Adrian Yanez is one of the best pure boxers in the UFC. If you offer Garbrandt a no-takedowns fight, he'll take it — and that plays right into Adrian's hands."
⚾ MARLINS: BEST STORY IN BASEBALL
The Numbers Keep Getting Crazier
| Stat | Number |
|---|---|
| Yesterday | Beat Mariners 8-4 |
| Last 20 games | 16-4 (best 20-game span in FRANCHISE HISTORY) |
| Record | 52-42 |
| Since June 1st | 26-8 |
| NL East deficit | 3 games back |
| Sweeps | Tied with Dodgers for most in NL |
THE BET: McCullough Manager of the Year +500
The market:
| Manager | Odds |
|---|---|
| Don Mattingly (PHI) | +250 |
| Walt Weiss (ATL) | +500 |
| Clayton McCullough (MIA) | +500 |
Scott: "There is no better story in the National League."
The alternatives: Division +1600 (must pass TWO teams), NL pennant 45/1, make playoffs -154.
🏀 SUMMER LEAGUE: DYBANTSA vs PETERSON
Wizards 92, Jazz 88
| Player | Line |
|---|---|
| AJ Dybantsa | 27 pts (7-18 FG, 0-5 3PT), 7 reb — main ball handler, aggressive in the paint |
| Darryn Peterson | 24 pts (6-18 FG, 2-7 3PT) |
Updated ROY Market
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cam Boozer | +250 |
| Peterson | +300 |
| Dybantsa | +410 |
| Lendeborg | 20/1 (was 25/1) |
Scott: "My boy Lendeborg receiving a lot of praise online — we gave him out at 25/1, now 20/1. That's still good enough for an 11-month flyer."
📅 Coming Up
Today
- World Cup: Spain vs Belgium
- Off the Board: Colby & Jake stream
Saturday
- World Cup: England vs Norway, Argentina vs Switzerland
- UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 (T-Mobile Arena)
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