College Football Week 0 & 32 in 32: Buffalo Bills

Scott Seidenberg recaps last nights NFL Preseason week 3 action and continues our 32 in 32 previews with the Buffalo Bills. Plus Scott previews Week 0 in College Football.

Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe!

Listen

🏈 PRESEASON WEEK 3: THE DOGS DIDN'T STOP

All Four Underdogs Covered

The running count: Underdogs are now 29-7 ATS this preseason.

Scott: "I talked about how week three has historically been dominated by favorites — and this preseason has been dominated by the dogs. We'll see if the favorites bounce back tonight."

✅ Fezzik's play cashed — Steelers +1.5, given out at BettorDay.com, lost by exactly one.

📐 PRESEASON KEY NUMBERS ARE DIFFERENT

(From yesterday's Football Show at Circa.)

Since 2021, the most common preseason margins of victory:

Scott: "Three is no surprise — it's the key-est number in all of football. But ONE being second is the preseason difference: teams go for two, nobody plays for the tie. That's why plus one and a half is very important, and the Steelers covering it isn't a surprise. It's okay to take the +1.5 in the preseason."

⚖️ JOSH JACOBS CHARGED WITH TWO MISDEMEANORS

The situation: Charges follow an arrest a couple of months ago for an alleged domestic violence incident. Court appearance scheduled for November 17th.

The NFL: "We have been closely monitoring all developments in the matter, which remains under review." The Packers:"We will continue to cooperate with the NFL as we work through the process. We will have no further comment at this time."

The betting risk: "He could be suspended to start the year, or after the legal process plays out, or not at all this season. His lawyers could push the process past the season entirely — and then any suspension lands next year."

This adds to the case on the Packers under 9.5 we laid out last week.

🏈 32 IN 32: BUFFALO BILLS

If Not Now, Then When?

The Market

What Could Possibly Go Wrong

The additions: DJ Moore gives Josh Allen another big-time weapon. Bradley Chubb adds a top-tier pass rusher.

The one question: Joe Brady taking over as head coach. "Maybe — I don't know. He's been the offensive coordinator for a couple of years, so he's got familiarity with Josh Allen. There shouldn't be much transition there."

The Schedule Math

The hard part (first-place schedule): at the Rams (Monday, Oct 12), vs Baltimore (Nov 1), Kansas City on Thanksgiving, at Denver on Christmas.

The path: "Miami and the Jets twice each — they should win all four, at worst three. Split with New England and you're at four or five wins right there. Add the Raiders and the NFC North and you're picking up six, seven, and a couple more. This team should win double-digit games. I like the over — I think they're at least an 11-win team because they're that good."

⭐ THE BEST BET: BILLS -136 TO WIN THE AFC EAST

Scott: "I think New England takes a step back — I don't see them winning 14 games like they did a season ago.And Buffalo is going to be right there as an 11, 12, 13, win team."

The Super Bowl call: "It's Super Bowl or bust and they know it. Seven straight playoff appearances. I picked the Bills to REACH the Super Bowl in the VSiN NFL betting guide and I'm standing by it. I picked them to WIN it last year and that was wrong."

🌬️ THE HIGHMARK WIND ANGLE (SEASON-LONG)

The engineering: The new stadium was designed to mitigate wind at field level — as revealed by the engineer on Hard Knocks a couple years ago.

The play: "When it's a windy day in Orchard Park and everybody's talking about windy unders and the market suppresses the total because of wind OUTSIDE — we pivot and bet the OVER on a deflated number.

We'll have to wait for the first truly windy game to see if it holds."

🏈 WEEK 0 COLLEGE FOOTBALL — THE FULL BREAKDOWN

From Scott's weekly Thursday hit on Cofield and Company, ESPN Radio Las Vegas.

⭐ TCU vs NORTH CAROLINA (Dublin) — THE UNDER

The line move: From -7.5 up to -9 or -9.5 at Circa. Total down from 47.5 to 46.5.

Scott's bet: UNDER 47.5 (already placed).

The core stat: "Three straight games in Dublin have reached only 45 points."

The reasoning: "I think both teams start slow and both have difficulty running the football. And TCU is slowing things down offensively with their new coordinator — it's Samus running it now, not Kendal Briles, so it should be a little slower.

On sides: it's hard not to say you trust TCU more. North Carolina significantly underperformed last year, Steven Belichick is away from the program with medical issues so we don't know about that defense.

But TCU has its own: they're banning credentials from reporters covering the locker room fight where their safety was dismissed for putting a receiver in the hospital. From a talent perspective, though, TCU has a lot more to offer."

⭐ NC STATE +4 (or +4.5) AT VIRGINIA

The move: From as high as +6 down to +4 across Vegas.

Scott: "Grab the +4.5 if you can still find it — four is a lesser key number but it can still land, so avoid the push and just get the win.

Dave Doeren has NEVER lost to Virginia. The last time Virginia beat NC State was 2012. NC State won 35-31 last year and CJ Bailey is back. I do like Pribula coming over from Missouri — he has a lot of mobility — but I always go to the talent, and the talent is better on NC State's side...I'm on NC State."

USC -38.5 vs SAN JOSE STATE

The two trends:

1. USC is 6-0 vs San Jose State, all by double digits
2. Lincoln Riley tune-up games: 73 points on Missouri State last year, 48 vs Utah State, 56 vs Sam Houston, 66 vs Rice

Scott: "Anytime Lincoln Riley has a tune-up game, they keep their foot on the gas. And there's a lot of pressure on him this year — this is a team and a coach that will not let up against an inferior opponent because they have a lot to prove.

And the thing that benefits USC this year: Gary Patterson, the former TCU coach and College Football Hall of Famer, is now running the defense. I don't know how many points San Jose State scores. USC might win 49-0."

⭐ JACKSONVILLE STATE +7 AT NORTH DAKOTA STATE

The move: Opened around +10, now down to a touchdown most places.

Scott: "Grab the touchdown while you can — I took the points earlier this week.

I love their quarterback Caden Creel — a really good veteran who's been there a while, knows the system, and is mobile. The Fargodome is going to be lit. But this is NDSU's first step up to FBS, and there's pressure and maybe nerves given their FCS success.

Jacksonville State has played at this level for a couple of years and been in the conference championship game two years in a row. They have the more experience and more confidence at this level to keep it close."

⭐ STANFORD -3.5 vs HAWAII (and the UNDER 48.5)

The Under

Scott: "Down to 48.5, you can still grab 49 at Circa — and that's a key number. Fezzik asked me yesterday, 'what's 31 plus 17?' 48. Key number.

Always think about how a total actually gets reached — this many touchdowns, this many field goals. 31-17 is a score that could happen."

The Side

The revenge case: "Amidst Hawaii's comeback last year — a great result for them — was Stanford and Frank Reich absolutely giving that game away. They ran the ball down Hawaii's throats and then STOPPED running it. What was it, 43 runs? If they run it 45 or 48 times, they probably win. Stanford outplayed them.

They have a new head coach trying to establish a culture — he's not making Frank Reich's mistake. And now it's at home. We know how difficult it is to go out to the island and play — this is the third time in four years they're opening against each other, and the FIRST time it's in Palo Alto.

Grab -3.5 before it's gone."

(Also: Hawaii's Ashlock is banged up at receiver)

UNLV -4.5 vs MEMPHIS — THE LIVE OVER

The quarterback comedy continues — neither coach naming a starter.

🔍 THE MARCUS STOKES STORY

Scott: "People forget. Do your research on Marcus Stokes — a Penn State recruit who flipped and committed to Florida, then had his scholarship pulled over an unfortunate social media post. He goes to a Division II program and throws for 40 touchdowns last year and was a finalist for the Division II Heisman.

Memphis's offense is going to be good — though all 11 defensive starters are transfers, so we don't know what to make of them as a whole."

⭐ THE PLAY

Total: 56.5. "The first couple drives might be slow for these quarterbacks — but I think it opens up in the second half. Get something IN GAME if the first quarter is low scoring. Play a live over."

Scott will be on VSiN during the game with ESPN Las Vegas' Jeff Parles calling in a halftime report from Allegiant Stadium.

Catch Scott on Cofield and Company every Thursday, ESPN Radio Las Vegas, weekdays 3-6 PM PT.

📊 Member Note

Premium members: plays have been going out all week, and the college football Trench Report is live for Week 0 (2025 data with roster turnover for now, sharpening as real data arrives). The NFL Trench Report updates weekly.

Learn how you can become a Bettor Day Insider or Premium Member

See both tiers →

The Bettor Day app is now available on BOTH Apple and Google Play