> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bettorday.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Friday, August 28th, 2026 - URL: https://www.bettorday.com/friday-august-28th-2026/ - Published: 2026-08-28T10:00:07.000Z - Updated: 2026-08-28T10:00:06.000Z - Author: Scott Seidenberg - Tags: Newsletter ## College Football Week 0 & 32 in 32: Buffalo Bills *Scott Seidenberg recaps last nights NFL Preseason week 3 action and continues our 32 in 32 previews with the Buffalo Bills. Plus Scott previews Week 0 in College Football.* [![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/07/NEW-POD-COVER.png)](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe! [Listen ](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) ## 🏈 PRESEASON WEEK 3: THE DOGS DIDN'T STOP ### All Four Underdogs Covered | Game | Result | | -------------------------- | ---------- | | Bills 28, **Steelers 27** | ✅ PIT +1.5 | | **Browns 37**, Patriots 13 | ✅ CLE +2.5 | | **49ers 18**, Raiders 12 | ✅ SF +3.5 | | Rams 20, **Chargers 18** | ✅ LA +3.5 | **The running count:** Underdogs are now **29-7 ATS** this preseason. **Scott:** "I talked about how week three has historically been dominated by favorites — **and this preseason has been dominated by the dogs.** We'll see if the favorites bounce back tonight." **✅ Fezzik's play cashed** — Steelers +1.5, given out at BettorDay.com, lost by exactly one. --- ## 📐 PRESEASON KEY NUMBERS ARE DIFFERENT *(From yesterday's Football Show at Circa.)* **Since 2021, the most common preseason margins of victory:** | Rank | Margin | | ------- | --------- | | **1st** | **THREE** | | **2nd** | **ONE** | **Scott:** "Three is no surprise — it's the key-est number in all of football. **But ONE being second is the preseason difference: teams go for two, nobody plays for the tie.** That's why plus one and a half is very important, and the Steelers covering it isn't a surprise. **It's okay to take the +1.5 in the preseason.**" --- ## ⚖️ JOSH JACOBS CHARGED WITH TWO MISDEMEANORS **The situation:** Charges follow an arrest a couple of months ago for an alleged domestic violence incident. **Court appearance scheduled for November 17th.** **The NFL:** "We have been closely monitoring all developments in the matter, which remains under review." **The Packers:**"We will continue to cooperate with the NFL as we work through the process. We will have no further comment at this time." **The betting risk:** "**He could be suspended to start the year, or after the legal process plays out, or not at all this season.** His lawyers could push the process past the season entirely — and then any suspension lands next year." *This adds to the case on the Packers under 9.5 we laid out last week.* --- # 🏈 32 IN 32: BUFFALO BILLS ### If Not Now, Then When? ## The Market | Market | Line | | ------------ | ------------------------ | | Super Bowl | **+1000 (2nd favorite)** | | **AFC East** | **\-136** | | Win total | 10.5 (over -120) | --- ## What Could Possibly Go Wrong **The additions:** **DJ Moore** gives Josh Allen another big-time weapon. **Bradley Chubb** adds a top-tier pass rusher. **The one question:** **Joe Brady** taking over as head coach. "Maybe — I don't know. He's been the offensive coordinator for a couple of years, **so he's got familiarity with Josh Allen. There shouldn't be much transition there.**" --- ## The Schedule Math **The hard part (first-place schedule):** at the Rams (Monday, Oct 12), vs Baltimore (Nov 1), **Kansas City on Thanksgiving**, at Denver on Christmas. **The path:** "Miami and the Jets twice each — **they should win all four, at worst three.** Split with New England and you're at four or five wins right there. Add the Raiders and the NFC North and you're picking up six, seven, and a couple more. **This team should win double-digit games. I like the over — I think they're at least an 11-win team because they're that good.**" --- ## ⭐ THE BEST BET: BILLS -136 TO WIN THE AFC EAST **Scott:** "**I think New England takes a step back — I don't see them winning 14 games like they did a season ago.**And Buffalo is going to be right there as an 11, 12, 13, win team." **The Super Bowl call:** "It's Super Bowl or bust and they know it. Seven straight playoff appearances. **I picked the Bills to REACH the Super Bowl in the VSiN NFL betting guide and I'm standing by it.** I picked them to WIN it last year and that was wrong." --- ## 🌬️ THE HIGHMARK WIND ANGLE (SEASON-LONG) **The engineering:** The new stadium was designed to **mitigate wind at field level** — as revealed by the engineer on Hard Knocks a couple years ago. **The play:** "When it's a windy day in Orchard Park and everybody's talking about windy unders and **the market suppresses the total because of wind OUTSIDE — we pivot and bet the OVER on a deflated number.** **We'll have to wait for the first truly windy game to see if it holds.**" --- # 🏈 WEEK 0 COLLEGE FOOTBALL — THE FULL BREAKDOWN *From Scott's weekly Thursday hit on *Cofield and Company*, ESPN Radio Las Vegas.* ## ⭐ TCU vs NORTH CAROLINA (Dublin) — THE UNDER **The line move:** From -7.5 up to **\-9 or -9.5 at Circa.** Total down from 47.5 to **46.5.** **Scott's bet: UNDER 47.5 (already placed).** **The core stat:** "**Three straight games in Dublin have reached only 45 points.**" **The reasoning:** "I think both teams start slow and both have difficulty running the football. **And TCU is slowing things down offensively with their new coordinator** — it's Samus running it now, not Kendal Briles, so it should be a little slower. On sides: **it's hard not to say you trust TCU more.** North Carolina significantly underperformed last year, **Steven Belichick is away from the program with medical issues so we don't know about that defense**. **But TCU has its own:** they're **banning credentials from reporters** covering the locker room fight where their safety was dismissed for putting a receiver in the hospital. **From a talent perspective, though, TCU has a lot more to offer.**" --- ## ⭐ NC STATE +4 (or +4.5) AT VIRGINIA **The move:** From as high as +6 down to **+4 across Vegas.** **Scott:** "**Grab the +4.5 if you can still find it** — four is a lesser key number but it can still land, so avoid the push and just get the win. **Dave Doeren has NEVER lost to Virginia. The last time Virginia beat NC State was 2012.** NC State won 35-31 last year and CJ Bailey is back. I do like Pribula coming over from Missouri — he has a lot of mobility — **but I always go to the talent, and the talent is better on NC State's side.**..**I'm on NC State.**" --- ## USC -38.5 vs SAN JOSE STATE **The two trends:** 1. **USC is 6-0 vs San Jose State, all by double digits** 2. **Lincoln Riley tune-up games:** 73 points on Missouri State last year, 48 vs Utah State, 56 vs Sam Houston, 66 vs Rice **Scott:** "**Anytime Lincoln Riley has a tune-up game, they keep their foot on the gas.** And there's a lot of pressure on him this year — **this is a team and a coach that will not let up against an inferior opponent because they have a lot to prove.** **And the thing that benefits USC this year: Gary Patterson**, the former TCU coach and College Football Hall of Famer, is now running the defense. **I don't know how many points San Jose State scores. USC might win 49-0.**" --- ## ⭐ JACKSONVILLE STATE +7 AT NORTH DAKOTA STATE **The move:** Opened around **+10**, now down to a **touchdown** most places. **Scott:** "**Grab the touchdown while you can — I took the points earlier this week.** I love their quarterback **Caden Creel** — a really good veteran who's been there a while, knows the system, and is mobile. The Fargodome is going to be lit. **But this is NDSU's first step up to FBS, and there's pressure and maybe nerves given their FCS success.** **Jacksonville State has played at this level for a couple of years and been in the conference championship game two years in a row. They have the more experience and more confidence at this level to keep it close.**" --- ## ⭐ STANFORD -3.5 vs HAWAII (and the UNDER 48.5) ### The Under **Scott:** "Down to 48.5, **you can still grab 49 at Circa — and that's a key number.** Fezzik asked me yesterday, 'what's 31 plus 17?' **48\. Key number.** **Always think about how a total actually gets reached** — this many touchdowns, this many field goals. **31-17 is a score that could happen.**" ### The Side **The revenge case:** "Amidst Hawaii's comeback last year — a great result for them — **was Stanford and Frank Reich absolutely giving that game away. They ran the ball down Hawaii's throats and then STOPPED running it.** What was it, 43 runs? **If they run it 45 or 48 times, they probably win.** Stanford outplayed them. **They have a new head coach trying to establish a culture — he's not making Frank Reich's mistake.** And now it's at home. We know how difficult it is to go out to the island and play — **this is the third time in four years they're opening against each other, and the FIRST time it's in Palo Alto.** **Grab -3.5 before it's gone.**" *(Also: Hawaii's Ashlock is banged up at receiver)* --- ## UNLV -4.5 vs MEMPHIS — THE LIVE OVER **The quarterback comedy continues** — neither coach naming a starter. ### 🔍 THE MARCUS STOKES STORY **Scott:** "**People forget.** Do your research on Marcus Stokes — **a Penn State recruit who flipped and committed to Florida, then had his scholarship pulled over an unfortunate social media post.** He goes to a Division II program and **throws for 40 touchdowns last year and was a finalist for the Division II Heisman.** **Memphis's offense is going to be good** — though all 11 defensive starters are transfers, so we don't know what to make of them as a whole." ### ⭐ THE PLAY **Total: 56.5.** "**The first couple drives might be slow for these quarterbacks — but I think it opens up in the second half. Get something IN GAME if the first quarter is low scoring. Play a live over.**" **Scott will be on VSiN during the game** with ESPN Las Vegas' Jeff Parles calling in a halftime report from Allegiant Stadium. *Catch Scott on Cofield and Company every Thursday, ESPN Radio Las Vegas, weekdays 3-6 PM PT.* --- ## 📊 Member Note **Premium members: plays have been going out all week**, and the **college football Trench Report is live for Week 0** (2025 data with roster turnover for now, sharpening as real data arrives). The NFL Trench Report updates weekly. Learn how you can become a Bettor Day Insider or Premium Member [**See both tiers →**](https://bettorday.com/membership/?ref=bettorday.com) --- ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/08/app-promo-newsletter-horizontal.png) **The Bettor Day app is now available on BOTH** [**Apple**](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/bettor-day/id6783427144%20Bettor%20Day?ref=bettorday.com) **and** [**Google Play**](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.bettorday.app&ref=bettorday.com) --- [ Bettor Day Exclusive Sportsbook Promos Promo Codes, Unlocked For You We've partnered with top sportsbooks to bring exclusive sign-up offers to the Bettor Day community. Offers vary by location — **see what's live in your state.** Check Offers In Your State → 21+ • For entertainment purposes only • Please bet responsibly ](https://www.vaultsportshq.com/preferred-books/bettorday?ref=bettorday.com)