TNF Recap, Lookahead Bets & 32 in 32: Minnesota Vikings

Scott Seidenberg recaps last nights NFL Preseason action and continues our 32 in 32 team previews with the Minnesota Vikings. Plus a portion of the Bettor Day Football Show where Scott, Fezzik & Duck spoke about Lookahead Bets in CFB & the NFL.

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🏈 PRESEASON WEEK 2: THURSDAY RECAP

Raiders 22, Texans 20

The finish: Aidan O'Connell quarterback sneak with ~14 seconds left.

The line chaos: "Raiders were dogs, then favorites, then dogs again, then favorites again. They closed -1.5 to -2 — and covered the 1.5, not the 2."

Our angle: Houston qualified for the embarrassed-dog system and led the first half — "but what always happens in these preseason games is the second half is a completely different story."

🚩 THE REAL RAIDERS STORY: THE SECONDARY

Scott: "The Raiders' secondary has not been good. If they can't cover, they're going to have a hard time being competitive — because I don't see this offense being high-scoring."

Mendoza's night: Started, struggled, threw a pick six as Vegas fell behind 14-0. Finished 8/15, 86 yards, 1 INT.

49ers 41, Chargers 17

Up 20-3 at half, then 21 more in the second. Brock Purdy's first preseason action: 4/6, 29 yards. Herbert: one series, 1/2, three-and-out. Jacob Cowing returned a punt 83 yards for a score. Trey Lance went 10/16 with 42 rushing yards against his old team.

Christian McCaffrey did not play — warmed up, but Shanahan cited tightness and said he'd practice as if it were a regular season game.

The context that matters: These teams held joint practices all week.

Scott: "Whenever there are joint practices, you don't really see the starters in the game. They already got their live look at each other in practices that are physical with fights and altercations. You got the reps you needed — you don't want to mess around in the actual game."

Tonight

🏈 32 IN 32: MINNESOTA VIKINGS

⭐ THE PLAYS

The Division Board

Scott: "There are worse +510 bets to make, because this is going to be a competitive division."

The Case: A 9-Win Team With The Worst QB Play in Football

Scott: "Minnesota was solid last year — a nine-win team with the worst quarterback play you're going to have in the NFL. Kyler Murray gives them validity at the position under a quarterback guru in Kevin O'Connell. If Murray just plays to a shell of what he was, this team is in good form."

The Best Supporting Cast of Murray's Career

Trench Report (Preseason)

The caveat on that pass rush number: "With Brian Flores, it's about the complex blitz and coverage schemes he hides against opposing quarterbacks. That's what makes this defense so difficult to go against."

🌡️ THE SCHEDULE EDGE: 11 GAMES INDOORS

Only ONE, maybe two weather games all season:

Everything else: 11 of 17 indoors (home, at Detroit, at New Orleans), the Mexico City game vs San Francisco, and early-September outdoor games at Chicago and at Tampa "where the only thing you're worried about is maybe some rain."

🎬 FROM THE FOOTBALL SHOW: LOOK-AHEAD BETS

Episode 2 is up on YouTube, X @better_day, and the Bettor Day Podcast Feed. Live every Thursday, 2 PM ET / 11 AM PT.

🏈 DUCK'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL SPOTS

Already bet: Miami vs Clemson at PICK'EM (MGM)

⭐ Boise State vs Memphis

"Memphis goes to UNLV, comes back to play regional foe Arkansas State with a trophy on the line, and then has to go back out to Boise State. That's a spot where Memphis could be absolutely DOA. Night kick on the blue turf, Boise has an exquisite home field advantage, and that's a lot of airplane time for Memphis in the first couple weeks. I want to back Boise State."

⭐ UCF vs BYU

"BYU has questions with the lack of receivers and downfield explosiveness. They host Notre Dame in a huge, huge game — BYU home voodoo, late kick, likely close. Then the very next week they get on a plane to Orlando to the Bounce House, probably laying two touchdowns — 16.5, 17 if they found a way to upset Notre Dame. That is a very, very tough spot."

⭐ Tulsa at Arkansas

"Arkansas has a major conference game before AND after, and then sneaky old Tulsa comes to town. Silverfield's staff at Memphis always got his teams to play UP — but sometimes they played down to lesser competition. Tulsa catching 16, 17 on the road at an Arkansas team that's not very good. Back the dog."

🏈 FEZZIK'S NFL SPOT: THE RAMS, WEEKS 3-4

Fezzik: "The Rams go to Melbourne, then have a Monday night game back home, then have to go to Denver on a short week. They're going to lose that game — and when I say lose, I mean it's not going to be priced correctly. Then they have to go to Philadelphia. A nightmare back-to-back in weeks three and four.

The problem is the Rams are the best team by margin in the NFL, so there are issues there. But that's not the time we want to invest in them. There'll be better spots throughout the year."

⭐ SCOTT'S SPOT: PACKERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY

The line: Bears -1.5 at home vs Green Bay, Christmas Day (Week 16).

The Two Weeks Before

Scott: "Same opponents — but Chicago plays them both on the ROAD and Green Bay plays them both at HOME."

The Handicap

"My whole take about cold weather teams traveling to South Florida late in the year: your brain chemistry goes into vacation mode. We saw New England suffer constantly going to Miami under Belichick. There's something about leaving frigid Chicago and getting off the plane at 75+ degrees.

Then the next week, forget the vacation — you're in Orchard Park in frigid cold against one of the best teams in the NFL. Then a short week to host your division rival on Christmas."

The extras: Series history (the Packers own the Bears), plenty of Packers fans in that building limiting the home edge.

Scott: "I don't think that line is Bears -1.5 by the time we get to Christmas Day. That's a spot where I want to back Green Bay — and at +1.5, maybe Green Bay is the teaser candidate right now."

📅 Coming Up

Next Week

• 32 in 32 starts the NFC South
• WEEK 0 COLLEGE FOOTBALL — actual games, best bets, and contest entries
• The Football Show, Thursday 2 PM ET 

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