NFL Preseason Night 1 Recap & 32 in 32: Philadelphia Eagles
Scott Seidenberg recaps night 1 of the NFL Preseason including #1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza's debut and continues our 32 in 32 previews with the Philadelphia Eagles. Plus some moments from our Bettor Day Football Show.
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🏈 NFL Preseason Week 1: What We Learned Thursday Night
All six games went UNDER the total
🏴☠️Fernando Mendoza: A Mixed Bag in His Preseason Debut
Scott was at Allegiant Stadium last night for Cardinals-Raiders, and the crowd absolutely erupted when Fernando Mendoza entered the game.
The No. 1 overall pick finished 10-of-16 for 97 yards and a touchdown, becoming the first No. 1 overall pick to throw a touchdown pass in his preseason debut since Baker Mayfield in 2018.
But don't get carried away just yet.
Mendoza showed flashes of exactly why the Raiders selected him No. 1 overall. There were a couple of throws where you could see the talent and think, "okay, this kid is going to be something".
There were also plenty of signs that he's still a work in progress.
His timing was occasionally off. He was inaccurate at times and held onto the football too long. His touchdown drive was also helped significantly by a 53-yard run that put the Raiders in position to score.
Overall? Mixed bag.
There is plenty more evaluation to come, and the Raiders already know the immediate plan: Kirk Cousins is their Week 1 starter.
Cousins looked sharp in his opening drive, leading the Raiders down the field for a touchdown pass to Michael Mayer.
Meanwhile, Arizona won the game 27-14. Cashing our BEST BET as talked about on the Bettor Day Football Show
📈 The Preseason Trend Continues
One of the reasons we liked Arizona last night was the advantage of having already played in the Hall of Fame Game.
Six straight teams that played in the Hall of Fame Game have now gone on to win and cover their next preseason game.
Arizona did exactly that against Las Vegas. Up Next, Carolina +3 at Buffalo tomorrow.
All Six Games Went Under
The Thursday night scoreboard:
- Cardinals 27, Raiders 14
- Bengals 16, Lions 14
- Steelers 28, Packers 9
- Colts 13, Patriots 13
- Chargers 27, Texans 7
- Titans 19, 49ers 13
All six went UNDER.
🟡 Steelers Quarterback of the Future?
The Steelers may have provided the biggest individual quarterback storyline outside of Mendoza. Penn State rookie Drew Allar went 10-of-13 for 153 yards and three touchdowns in Pittsburgh's 28-9 win over Green Bay.
🔵 Richardson Trade Market?
In Indianapolis, Anthony Richardson had a decent night, completing 11-of-14 passes for 145 yards, adding 53 rushing yards and a touchdown. But the Colts committed four turnovers and had to settle for a 13-13 tie.
Three Preseason Games Tonight
Broncos at Falcons
Denver -3.5 | Total 40.5
Buccaneers at Jets
New York -5.5 | Total 35.5
Dolphins at Commanders
Miami -3.5 | Total 35.5
🦅 32 in 32: Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are the class of the NFC East.
They're currently +120 favorites to win the division, -168 to make the playoffs, and +1800 to win the Super Bowl.
Their win total is 10.5, with the under priced at -140.
Philadelphia has the best roster in the NFC East.
Yes, they lost A.J. Brown and will replace him with rookie Makai Lemon, Hollywood Brown, Elijah Moore, Dontayvion Wicks, to go along with DeVonta Smith.
And then there's the offensive line.
The Eagles Win in the Trenches
This is where Philadelphia separates itself.
Our Bettor Day Trench Report has the Eagles ranked as the No. 2 trench team in the entire NFL, in our Preseason Rankings.
A New Look Offense
The biggest question surrounding Philadelphia might be what this offense looks like under new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion.
According to the team, this isn't simply a change in terminology.
The Eagles have reportedly been using:
- More Jalen Hurts under center
- More pre-snap motion
- Heavy play-action
- A greater emphasis on the running game
That could bring the offense back toward the style we saw when Kellen Moore was coordinating the offense and Saquon Barkley was dominating.
And if that's the direction they're headed, there is plenty of reason for optimism.
Bettor Day Football Show
Yesterday was the first episode of the Bettor Day Football Show, featuring Scott, Steve Fezzik and Joshua Nunn.
They covered both the NFL and College Football, along with plenty of betting strategy—including Win Totals.
You Need Tolerance.
If you bet a team UNDER its regular-season win total, that doesn't mean the team is going to be terrible.
It doesn't mean you have to bet against them every single week.
And it certainly doesn't mean your preseason evaluation is going to be correct 100% of the time.
You have to be willing to recognize that a team can still be a good weekly betting opportunity even if you have a season-long position against them.
There are matchup advantages.
There are travel spots.
There are situational spots.
There are injuries.
And sometimes…
You were simply wrong.
That's part of handicapping.
The goal isn't to prove your preseason opinion correct every week. The goal is to find the best number and the best spot.
How Fezzik Builds His NFL Numbers
Steve Fezzik explained that he relies heavily on the marketplace when establishing his initial NFL power ratings and season win projections.
For example, if a team has a win total of 9.5 and the schedule is roughly average, he might initially translate that into approximately a +2 power rating.
From there, he makes adjustments.
Schedule strength.
Line play.
Quarterback play.
Injuries and expected health.
Roster construction.
And respected external numbers.
The key is that the market provides the starting point, and then you make your adjustments based on the information you believe the market may be missing.
That's a much different process than simply picking a number and refusing to move off of it.
Your power ratings need to have tolerance.
That's a lesson worth remembering throughout the entire NFL season.
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