Football Friday: NFL Week 3 & CFB Week 4
Scott Seidenberg recaps the Falcons win over the Packers on TNF and we hear from Michael Fiddle and Steve Fezzik from the Bettor Day Football Show the NFL Week 3 slate and the College Football Week 4 Games.
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✅ FALCONS 35, PACKERS 14 — NEVER IN DOUBT
Our best bet on the Falcons +3.5 in the first half cashed. The Falcons +4.5 or +5.5 for the game cashed. Wherever you got it, it was never in doubt.
⭐ THE SAME GAME PARLAY CASHED: +880
(Given out yesterday with Brandon Kravitz on the pod, and in the newsletter)
| Leg | Result |
|---|---|
| Christian Watson OVER 68.5 receiving yards | ✅ 7 catches, 96 yards, TD |
| Drake London OVER 5.5 receptions | ✅ 9 catches, 194 yards |
| Falcons MONEYLINE | ✅ |
The four-leg version — with the Bijan Robinson anti-correlation — "didn't stand a chance in the first half." (He finished with 194 rushing yards. That's the risk you take for the price.)
The Boxscore
| Player | Line |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 29 carries, 194 yards, 2 TDs (including a 55-yard run) + 2 catches for 19 |
| Drake London | 9 catches, 194 yards (including a 68-yard catch and run) |
| Michael Penix | 18/25, 256 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT |
| Jordan Love | 28/53, 312 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT |
Penix threw an interception on the very first drive, then settled in nicely
🚨 IS MATT LaFLEUR ON THE HOT SEAT?
The Green Bay Rushing Attack
| Back | Line |
|---|---|
| Marshawn Lloyd | 4 carries, 11 yards |
| Caleb Johnson (recently acquired) | 4 carries, 6 yards |
They lead the league in possessions this year without getting a first down.
📊 THE TRENCH REPORT CALLED IT
Our Trench Report had the Falcons with an edge over the Packers overall — and it was one of our top rushing mismatches.
"I wish it was as easy as saying Bijan Robinson. But it was that the ATLANTA DEFENSE was going to stop the Packers' running game. And it happened, because the Packers had absolutely no running game whatsoever."
(Yes, Green Bay is missing a tackle and a guard — but this team already graded out terribly in the trenches.)
📉 THE STAT
Going back to last season, and now 0-3 ATS to start this year: the Packers have lost EIGHT STRAIGHT GAMES AGAINST THE SPREAD.
Scott: "A disappointing end to last season — they had the lead in the playoffs and blew it. It's time to start having the conversation about whether Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat. I think he might be. And for Jordan Love as well — where do we rank him as a quarterback in this league?
An embarrassing start for the Green Bay Packers, now 1-2. And as Yogi would say, it's getting late early."
What's Next
Green Bay: at Tampa Bay, who could very well be 0-3. Atlanta: at New Orleans on Monday Night Football, then Sunday night vs Baltimore.
Scott: "Maybe we shouldn't be embarrassed that we have to watch this team in three consecutive primetime games. I'll watch Bijan Robinson in primetime for the next couple of weeks. I'm cool with this version of the Atlanta Falcons."
🎬 FROM THE FOOTBALL SHOW
(AJ Hoffman was out sick — Michael Fiddle filled in. AJ should be back next Thursday.)
🟣 THE DEBATE: VIKINGS -1.5 vs TAMPA BAY
⭐ Fiddle: The Most Actionable Line on the Board
"It's very rare that I'd outright disagree with the market consensus in the NFL on a Thursday — so I'll say most ACTIONABLE. That's Minnesota -1.5 against Tampa Bay."
The Tell
"This was the one spot this week where, when Kyler Murray was announced to take back the starting job, the FIRST line move was toward TAMPA BAY.
That's very rare. You normally get the mouth breathers, the screen clickers — the ones who see the alert and immediately smash Vikings because they're getting their starting quarterback back. The line might move out and ultimately get resisted. But it's very rare to see the first move come toward Tampa off that news."
The Case
"This Vikings defense — veteran heavy, incredibly well coached — is performing way better than expected. We thought they wouldn't be as good as previous years. They're still an absolute elite unit.
I do think Kyler Murray is an upgrade over Carson Wentz, even though Wentz's success rate has been pretty good.
On Murray's interception on his first pass as a Viking: it was a misread — he thought he was going against cover zero, threw the ball up, and it was actually a drop zone. I'm not taking too much off him for one bad pass. People are overreacting saying he looked terrible.
The Vikings should probably be a little higher in power ratings than they are. Tampa Bay should probably be lower. Plus getting Kyler back is an adjustment up. Vikings -1.5 has to be the cheapest we'll get between now and Sunday kickoff."
Scott Was Already In
"I already played Vikings moneyline — I gave that out earlier in the week.
It is one of our TOP FIVE MISMATCHES in the Trench Report. Tampa has not been able to protect Baker Mayfield, and the Vikings pass rush has been very good to start the season.
If that were the only handicap, I'd feel confident. The fact that the offense should improve with Kyler makes me even MORE confident.
Plus, I think Todd Bowles is getting fired in a couple of weeks." (He's now the favorite to be the first head coach fired.)
⚔️ FEZZIK DISAGREES
First, the trend he actually likes
"I don't believe in trends. But I like this trend. If you're 0-2 and you're an underdog in week three, you cover.
Four teams apply: Atlanta, Miami, Tampa Bay, and the Chargers."
And the reason WHY — which he says everyone gets wrong
"People say it's because the oddsmakers overreact and adjust their lines wrong. Bullshit. That's not correct.
How much have the oddsmakers overreacted? The Vikings are PICK'EM against Tampa. Does that look like an overreaction to you?
What's really going on is DESPERATION. The team that's 0-2 knows their season is about to go down the drain. Everyone is all in on week three to try to save the season."
🩹 And the Kyler Objection
"I agree with Mr. Fiddle that Murray is better at quarterback. But I don't want a quarterback who just got CONCUSSED on his third play with his new team.
I don't think Murray's going to run. I don't think there are going to be any RPOs. I don't think there are going to be any scrambles. He's going to be super careful, and the coaching staff is going to be careful with him.
Given that — I'd rather have Wentz THIS WEEK. Not down the road. This week."
📊 SCOTT RAN THE NUMBERS LIVE
Since 2021 — 0-2 teams as underdogs in week three:
| Metric | Record |
|---|---|
| Straight up | 15-15 |
| ATS | 18-11-1 |
"But this is a one-point line." (With a line under two, it's only happened three times since 2021.)
Which is why: "We bet Vikings MONEYLINE and we're fine."
🏈 THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL SYSTEM
The Rule
When a LOWER-ranked team (the bigger number) is favored over a HIGHER-ranked team (the smaller number) — you back the favorite.
Scott: "That little number next to the team's name means very little in the betting markets. But the PUBLIC gets influenced by it."
Since 2021
| Metric | Record |
|---|---|
| ATS | 52-29-1 — 64.2% |
| Straight up | 59-23 — 72% |
| Margins | Winning by 7.3, covering by 3 |
🚨 FOUR QUALIFYING GAMES SATURDAY
| Favorite | Underdog | Line |
|---|---|---|
| #21 Florida | #4 Ole Miss | -3.5 |
| #18 Michigan | #17 Iowa | -5.5 |
| #20 Oregon | #12 USC | -3 |
| #24 Mississippi State | #19 Missouri | -6 |
⭐ FEZZIK: FLORIDA ON THE MONEYLINE
"I don't like laying -3.5. Get up Florida -160? GO. We are betting Florida on the moneyline.
I think Florida's going to kill Ole Miss. Full endorsement."
⭐ FEZZIK'S OREGON ANGLE: THE THIRD QUARTER
"No lock — but I think it's more likely Oregon gets the ball to start the SECOND half than the first half. So Oregon third quarter is the investment I'd make.
Oregon's the better team. USC might take the lead — but Oregon third quarter."
Scott's supporting note: "Having that scrimmage game last week against Portland State was a get-right scenario. A lot of people talked about how the offense looked discombobulated because Stein left and they have a new coordinator. That game definitely helped."
Fezzik, blunt: "They've SUCKED. They have sucked the first two weeks versus expectation."
📉 THE OLE MISS LETDOWN — CONFIRMED
Since 2021: a top 25 team that wins OUTRIGHT as an underdog against another top 25 team, then is an underdog again the following week in another top 25 matchup:
| Situation | Record |
|---|---|
| All | 4-21 SU · 6-19 ATS — failing to cover by 11.3 |
| As an AWAY dog (Ole Miss) | 1-8 SU · 2-7 ATS — failing to cover by 12.1 |
🍺 Why It Makes Sense
Fezzik: "At least when you're home in an underdog spot, the crowd is juiced up and crazed. When you go on the road, THE HANGOVER IS REAL. Somebody get me an IV."
📐 GAME OF THE YEAR LINES vs TODAY
(South Point's preseason numbers, via Jared Smith.)
| Game | Preseason | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Texas over Tennessee | -6.5 | -5.5 |
| Oregon over USC | -6 | -3 |
| Georgia over Oklahoma | -9.5 | -13.5 / -14 |
| LSU over Texas A&M | -2.5 | -8.5 |
Fezzik: "It all depends. A&M you could downgrade ELEVEN points — they're no good, and we thought they'd be good. And there are overreactions like the Michigan bad game in week one, before they played Oklahoma."
🔥 FEZZIK'S ACTUAL BET: SACRAMENTO STATE +4.5 vs UMASS
"Forget those games of the year. Let's go to the high profile game. THIS one I'm going to bet.
What would UMass at Sacramento State have been if the South Point put a line up before the season? I'd think Sac State minus nine, something like that.
And now Sac State, who isn't any good at all, is catching four and a half against UMass — and they're not any good either. I REFUSE to believe UMass is good."
Scott Pushes Back
"I've watched some UMass. I watched the embarrassment my Rutgers Scarlet Knights suffered in week one. But then I saw the highlights of what they're doing offensively.
This quarterback is legit. Pop Watson — this kid can play. It's like they found the diamond in the rough. I think we have to erase our priors on UMass. That's how you go from a winless team to 3-0: you get a quarterback who can run and make guys miss."
Fezzik's Alan Boston Principle
"Alan says certain programs just can't improve and go to a certain level. UMass CANNOT be laying four and a half on a late start time on the West Coast in Sacramento.
I don't care how bad Sacramento State is — and they're bad.
Maybe I'll be right, maybe I'll be wrong. Sacramento State is going to win this game outright."
🏒 THE NHL HQ IS LIVE
Our NHL headquarters is now LIVE on BettorDay.com and in the Bettor Day mobile app — just like the NFL HQ and College Football HQ.
What's In It
The matchup view: click any game for a full matchup card — goals for and against per game, power play and penalty kill percentage, 5v5 shot attempt share, 5v5 shots on goal share, and shots on goal for and allowed per game.
Shots on goal props: player hit rates compared to what their opponent allows over the course of a season.
⭐ The First Period Database
Everything you need to bet NHL first periods:
- Straight up records
- Over/under records
- Both teams to score records
- Goal in the first 10 records (your GIFT bets)
- Goalie records — track every goalie's first period performance, split by home and away, with first period goals against average and first period save percentage
The season starts next week. No better time to jump on board.
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📅 This Weekend
- Brandon Kravitz's Prop Shop — FREE Prop Bets for NFL Sunday
- Dan and Macken Survive the NFL — the Survivor pod drops tomorrow morning (and with Tampa Bay knocking out so many entries last week, we'll see what they have left)
- Jake Novakovich's College Football free play article
- The Saturday morning newsletter with the College Football free plays
The Football Show streams live every Thursday, 2 PM ET, on YouTube and @bettor_day — and the full show is on this podcast feed.
Become a Bettor Day Insider or Premium Member Today! NEW NHL HQ Launching Soon. Matchup analysis on every game, shots on goal props, our 1st period databases & more! Season starts next week! Compare tiers →