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# Football Friday, September 18th, 2026
- URL: https://www.bettorday.com/football-friday-september-18th-2026/
- Published: 2026-09-18T10:00:33.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-18T10:00:33.000Z
- Author: Scott Seidenberg
- Tags: Newsletter

*Scott Seidenberg recaps the Bills win over the Lions on Thursday Night Football and we hear from the Bettor Day Football Show previewing tonight's College Football action & more!*

[![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/07/NEW-POD-COVER.png)](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) 

Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe! 

[Listen ](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) 

# 🏈 BILLS 41, LIONS 31 — THE OVER WAS NEVER IN DOUBT

**Buffalo jumped to a 21-0 lead before you could blink.** The over cashed early in the fourth on Sam LaPorta's touchdown to make it 34-24\. **The late window dressing — James Cook's touchdown with 2:00 left and Amon-Ra St. Brown's second score with 1:40 to go — just helped people cash their same game parlays.**

---

## 📊 THE STAT OF THE NIGHT

| Buffalo         | Number |
| --------------- | ------ |
| Offensive plays | **69** |
| **First downs** | **34** |
| Total yards     | 446    |

**Scott: "HALF of their plays were first downs. Just an unbelievable game."**

*(Detroit racked up yards in the second half to finish with 355.)*

---

## 😤 THE FOMO CONTINUES

**Everybody cashed their touchdown parlays. Again.**

| Bills                                                                           | Lions                                   |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------- |
| **Josh Allen — TWO rushing TDs** (including the first ever in the new building) | **Jared Goff — 4 TD passes, 327 yards** |
| James Cook (135 rush yards)                                                     | Amon-Ra St. Brown — 2 TD catches        |
| Dalton Kincaid                                                                  | Jahmyr Gibbs — receiving TD             |
| Dawson Knox                                                                     | Sam LaPorta                             |
| Josh Palmer                                                                     |                                         |

**Scott:** "**Another night where I have FOMO for just not parlaying every key player to score a touchdown.** And of course it was going to be Josh Allen scoring the first touchdown in the new Highmark Stadium."

---

## 📈 THE TOTALS PICTURE

| Split                      | Record              |
| -------------------------- | ------------------- |
| All games, overs           | **10-7**            |
| **Totals of 47 or higher** | **6-2 TO THE OVER** |

**"The high totals are working well for betting overs — and last night was no exception."**

---

## ⚠️ THE OVERTIME SPOT WAS REAL

**Scott:** "I tried to make a point for why the Lions were a play — **I thought the horrible spot was baked into the line.**But as we talked about on the Football Show, **the spot just weighs too much. Historically this has been an AUTO FADE** for teams coming off overtime and playing on the road on a short week.

**The Lions in the first half looked like a team that was just not ready to play after three days of rest.**"

*(Detroit was without a bunch of offensive linemen and lost a defensive back to a foot injury on top of an already decimated secondary.)*

---

# 🏆 JOSH ALLEN IS THE MVP FAVORITE (+260)

## Through Two Weeks

| Stat              | Total   |
| ----------------- | ------- |
| Passing yards     | **582** |
| Passing TDs       | **5**   |
| **Interceptions** | **0**   |
| Rushing yards     | 92      |
| Rushing TDs       | **4**   |

### 📜 THE HISTORY

**He becomes just the THIRD player ever with nine or more passing/rushing touchdowns and NO turnovers through his team's first two games.**

**The other two: Peyton Manning in 2013 and Patrick Mahomes in 2018.**

**Both went on to win MVP.**

---

## 🗓️ What's Next

**Buffalo** gets the mini-bye before hosting the **Chargers** at Highmark. **Detroit** gets the mini-bye before hosting the **Jets** — "we'll see if Aaron Glenn can do something with his defense against his former team." **Lions just need to get healthy.**

---

# 🎬 FROM THE FOOTBALL SHOW: NFL WEEK 2

## 🏈 PACKERS AT JETS

| Source             | Number              |
| ------------------ | ------------------- |
| **BettorDay line** | **Green Bay -3.74** |
| Consensus          | \-3.5               |

**The trend:** **Matt LaFleur always covers in week two — 5-0 ATS since the start of 2021.**

### AJ's Read: Value on the Jets

"**I was impressed with the Jets — I guess it's all relative.** They played a team I'm really, really down on, and **I'm not sure why the Jets were underdogs. But I'm also more down on the Packers than I thought I'd be. I thought they really gave a game away — and if teams can give games away like that, that's not a team I'm looking to lay points with.**

**Geno Smith is what he is, and he's not real good.** We saw that last year with the Raiders. **But the rest of their roster is still pretty solid and they added some talent.**

We've lived in a world where for the last five years the Jets have been an automatic joke of a team. **There's a world this year where the Jets aren't a complete joke. We have to start treating them like a C-minus tier team instead of a D-tier team. So I think there's actually a little bit of value on the Jets this week.**"

---

## ⭐ THE PLAY: VIKINGS +4.5 (Fezzik got +5)

**"By the way, I just bet the Vikings plus five. The beauty of being in Vegas — live show."**

### 1\. The Quarterback Situation Is NOT a Downgrade

**AJ:** "**I don't think the Vikings are worse off with Carson Wentz than they are with Kyler Murray.** Wentz has been in the system a while. There was a real competition — **JJ McCarthy was quickly eliminated** — and I think they went with Murray because the upside was higher. **But the FLOOR with Wentz is probably better than with any quarterback they have. Carson looked really good last week. That coaching staff kept him around for a reason — and if that staff tells me they like a quarterback, I like that quarterback.**"

### 2\. 🧠 THE FLORES ANGLE

**AJ:** "**The way to disrupt Caleb Williams historically is to blitz him.** That's worked for Brian Flores — **he's 1-3 in his career against these Flores-led Vikings defenses. When Caleb Williams is under pressure, he becomes sort of a pumpkin.**

**Who wouldn't want to bet this Bears offense after week one? I just think comparing Carolina's coaching and personnel to Minnesota's defense is apples to oranges.**"

### 3\. The Mind Games Layer

**Scott:** "Caleb called Flores **the king of the cover zero.** And in week one last year, **Flores did NOT blitz him.** He dared him to beat it — dropped back, disguised coverage, let him dink and dunk. **We gave out an anti-correlated same game parlay and cashed it: Caleb over receptions, UNDER passing yards.**

**He went under his passing yards in BOTH games against Minnesota last year.** Flores did blitz more in the second game. **It's all mind games — I think Flores has Caleb Williams's number, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Vikings not just keep it close, but win outright.**"

**AJ's closer:** "**Most teams, if they win with a backup quarterback for most of the game, we're in love with it. This isn't Sam Darnold to Drew Lock — that's an easily identifiable drop-off. Here there's a gray area where Wentz might be the BETTER option. So I'm not going to penalize them. And if I'm not, Minnesota might be underrated here.**"

---

# 🏈 COLLEGE FOOTBALL

## 🎭 LSU vs OLE MISS — THE KIFFIN GAMESMANSHIP

**The surprise:** **LSU listed Sam Leavitt as DOUBTFUL.** The market barely moved — **LSU is still a 2.5-point favorite.**

**AJ:** "**If this wasn't Lane Kiffin — some other random coach — would we believe him? I think yeah.** But because it's Lane Kiffin, he's got a reputation that precedes him. **There was no indication he was hurt. He finished the game last week. I think this is gamesmanship.**

**And the fact that the market didn't really react is pretty telling. Nobody believes this, and I don't believe it. My investment's been made on LSU.**"

### The Fezzik-AJ Exchange

**Fezzik:** "He left Ole Miss, **took a bunch of their best players AND a bunch of their coaches — and he has better players now than he had there.** He's obviously the better coach, **because he's the coach everybody wanted to keep. He was the pretty girl. LSU got him.**"

**AJ:** "**I think it's a bad spot for LSU, but I agree with the conclusion — I just think LSU is way better.** The number doesn't seem right given the talent discrepancy. **If Leavitt doesn't play, okay, we've got a conversation.**

**I have faith in Lane Kiffin when it comes to coaching football. That's about it. I don't believe any word that he says.**"

---

# 🆕 NEW FEATURE: FULL MATCHUP BREAKDOWNS

**Live now for Insider and Premium members** in the **college football HQ** at BettorDay.com and in the app.

**On the schedule view, click any game → the MATCHUP tab.** You get:

- A full statistical breakdown of every game
- **Who has the edge** and the biggest factors
- Each team's offense compared to the opponent's defense, with rankings
- **A direct link to the Trench Report** for that game

### Live Example: LSU's Defense

**#1 in EPA per play · #1 in success rate · #1 in explosiveness · #1 in points per opportunity allowed**

*(Caveat: only a couple of games of data so far.)* 

---

## ⭐ AJ'S FAVORITE PLAY: HOUSTON +8 AT TEXAS TECH

### What the Tools Say (and why they're fading it)

**Our matchup analysis has five big edges — Texas Tech with four, Houston with one.** The Trench Report, which blends last year's numbers, also favors Texas Tech, **with pass blocking and pass rush as their strongest units.**

### AJ Fades It Anyway

"**I think Texas Tech is VASTLY overrated here. We're thinking this is the same Texas Tech team that went to the playoff a year ago. I'm pretty sure it was not.**

**It was absurd what Oregon State was able to do through the air against this team. A year ago Braden Atkinson wouldn't have gotten the ball off** — the defense was so good.

**In this era with NIL and guys off to the draft and the transfer portal, we just assume 'they've got money, next man up, no problem.' Having watched this Texas Tech team — I don't think that's the case. I don't think they're on that level.**

**I've got this on the other side of SEVEN. Houston should be less than a touchdown dog. The market's going the other way and giving eight. There's real value on the Coogs.**"

### 📊 THE TREND THAT BACKS IT UP

**Scott:** "I always run trends from 2021 — **but because college football has changed so much with NIL, I shortened this to 2024.**

**Week three favorites who failed to cover as a favorite in week one AND week two: 7-12 ATS.**

**Maybe there is something to AJ's point about the NIL era changing college football.**"

### 🧮 And Dan the Stat Man

**Fezzik:** "**He makes this game three and a half.** He doesn't care about preseason hype. His model is heavily dependent on what's actually happened. **He's like — if you had random teams, no uniforms, and you just looked at the two games these teams have played: Texas Tech stinks and Houston's going to win.**"

**AJ:** "**Oregon State had a fourth quarter LEAD on Texas Tech.** It was a really bad performance — **a week after they struggled to get separation from Abilene Christian. I have real concerns Texas Tech is even good, much less playoff caliber. They're still being priced like the playoff team they were a year ago.**"

---

## 🎯 MIAMI -20.5 AT WAKE FOREST (Friday night) — THE DEBATE

### Scott: Take the Points

"Miami finishes drives — **4th in points per scoring opportunity. Their pass protection is elite: 3rd in havoc allowed, 2nd in sack rate allowed. But we're only grading them against ONE FBS opponent.** Same with Mensah — great start, tiny sample.

**Can Wake Forest get after the quarterback?** They've had success rushing the passer early, **and they've played better opponents than Miami has.**

**And Wake Forest played Darian Mensah last year. The coaches studied him when he was at Duke. If there's any coaching edge here, it might be the staff that already scouted the quarterback and has film on him.**

**I don't know if I'll get a 21 — maybe I shop around. I like taking the points with Wake Forest on Friday night.**"

### ⭐ Fezzik's Correlated Build

**"Scott, you've got to raise your bar, man. You're not greedy enough. Twenty-one? I want TWENTY-ONE AND A HALF!**

**And I do think the correlated parlay — plus 21.5 with the UNDER 56\. How good would a 38-17 final be, where you steal not just one win but the parlay also?**"

**The logic, agreed by all three:** "**Dog and under is correlated in any game. But especially here — Wake Forest is not winning a shootout against Miami. If the game goes over, they lose by three touchdowns. If it's close, they've kept it to a lower score.**"

### ❌ AJ Is Out

"**I'm not sure I'm looking to get in the way of a freight train. Miami has maybe been the most impressive team so far.** I can't get to Wake from my power ratings — **I have this at 25, 25.5 on a neutral.**

**And the cast of characters around Mensah this year compared to last year — it might not look like the same guy on film to those coaches.**

**I think Wake Forest is one of the worst power four teams in the country, and I think Miami is quite frankly a national title contender. 21.5 maybe I could consider. Anything 21 or under, I'm totally out.**"

**Scott's closing thought:** "**It's a Friday night game. The public loves Miami. The public has Malachi Toney and Darian Mensah for the Heisman. So maybe that 21.5 does become available.**"

---

## 🐎 #16 SMU AT #23 LOUISVILLE

| Market | Line            |
| ------ | --------------- |
| Spread | Louisville -1.5 |
| Total  | **59.5**        |

**Fezzik:** "**People I respect have made a case for Louisville. I like SMU early in the game. If I had to bet one bet here, I think I'd bet SMU FIRST QUARTER.**"

**AJ:** "**I downgraded Louisville off their performance against Ole Miss.** I thought they'd be more closely matched talent-wise and they weren't — **they looked behind the times on the coaching. I soured on them in week one.**

**Whereas SMU is a team I'm starting to believe might be the second best team in the ACC behind Miami. SMU up arrow, Louisville down arrow. We're getting a fair price. I like the Ponies.**"

---

## 📅 Coming Up

### Tomorrow

- **Dan and Macken Survive the NFL, episode 2** on the Bettor Day podcast feed
- **The weekend newsletter** with **college football free bets from Jake Novakovich**

### Sunday morning

- **The Prop Shop** — Brandon Kravitz's NFL article

### Every Thursday

- **The BettorDay Football Show** — 2 PM ET / 11 AM PT. Scott, Steve Fezzik, and AJ Hoffman, live on **YouTube.com/@BettorDay** and **@Bettor\_Day** on X. Jump in the chat or send questions in ahead of time.
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