Football Friday: NFL Week 1 & CFB Week 2

Scott Seidenberg recaps TNF as the 49ers beat the Rams in Australia. We have injury news moving the market for NFL Sunday and Steve Fezzik and AJ Hoffman preview the Saturday CFB slate from the Bettor Day Football Show.

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🇦🇺 THE 49ERS PROVE THE OTHER TRAVEL PLAN WORKS

49ers 27, Rams 7

Arriving a week early beat arriving the day before.

✅ THE STAFFORD FADE HITS EVERY WAY

Matthew Stafford: 15 of 25, 155 yards, NO touchdowns, one interception.

Scott: "Fading quarterbacks who don't play in the preseason is very profitable. The team total went under, the game went under, the ATS margin was negative. Every which way you could have faded the Rams came through."

📉 THE ONE THAT GOT AWAY — AND THE LESSON

Kyren Williams: 11 carries, 41 yards (31 in the first half). The game script killed it — once San Francisco led, the Rams abandoned the run.

But Blake Corum had 10 carries for 54 yards, including a 13-yard burst. The Rams rushed for 122 as a team.

⭐ THE TAKEAWAY

Scott: "I was on VSiN's Follow the Money and Mitch and Pauly asked about doing a TEAM rushing prop instead of a Kyren Williams prop. And you know what? That probably was the way to go.

Not knowing how the split would work — it was essentially 50/50 — the team number would have CASHED. The Trench Report had this as the number one rushing mismatch, and it was right. If we just played the team rushing number, it cashes."

🔑 HOW SAN FRANCISCO NEUTRALIZED THE RAMS

Myles Garrett did not record a sack. He did not record a TACKLE. He did not appear on the stat sheet at all.

Scott: "That was probably the biggest win for the 49ers. The way they blocked him, chipped him, and ran plays away from him — that's how you neutralize the strength of this Rams team. Great coaching job by Kyle Shanahan."

📊 The Market Move

🚨 THE TUA INJURY — AND THE CLV GRAB

What happened: Tua Tagovailoa went down in practice with what's being reported as an oblique injury. Reports had him going to the ground favoring his back and being helped by trainers. He was listed as a limited participant, and Cooper Rush took first-team reps.

The context: Michael Penix is already OUT for Sunday against Pittsburgh.

⭐ THE PLAY WE FIRED LIVE ON AIR

Scott: "The Steelers were already bordering on a play — they're our number FIVE biggest mismatch of the week on the Trench Report.

I fired immediately on Steelers -3.5 while we were doing the live stream, as soon as the news broke, because I wanted to get ahead of the market. A bunch of books were already at -4 and I wanted to grab the 3.5 while I could, because four is somewhat of a key number."

The consensus now: Steelers -4.75.

(And yes — "you can joke that Cooper Rush is an upgrade over Tua.")

🏈 THE SURVIVOR ANGLE

Scott: "The Brock Bowers news takes the Raiders over the Dolphins out of the conversation as one of those cute fade-the-public Survivor plays. Most picks will be on Jacksonville or the Chargers.

I think the Steelers now become a very attractive Survivor play. Be on the lookout."

🎬 COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 2 — FROM THE FOOTBALL SHOW

(Scott, Steve Fezzik & AJ Hoffman)

🎯 THE TREND, WITH FEZZIK'S FILTER

Top 25 teams that fail to cover in Week 1, since 2021: 16-29-1 ATS in Week 2 — and 13-25-1 when favored.

The list: Oregon, Indiana, Houston, Missouri, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Michigan, Washington, Ole Miss

Fezzik's filter: "Keep the large spreads when they LOST — I don't care if Michigan was laying 48, they lost the game. But who cares whether Tennessee covered a 47-point spread? Take Tennessee out. Keep the teams that massively underperformed versus expectation — Oregon, Houston, Washington. All those teams looked like crap versus expectation."

❌ OREGON -23.5 AT OKLAHOMA STATE — BOTH SAY NO

AJ: "Unfortunately, I WATCHED Oklahoma State and there is no way I can back them. I heard all the talk about how good they'd be. They look BROKEN. That team is nowhere close to a Big 12 caliber football team.

I lost money on Oregon last week — maybe Boise is just better than I thought. And one thing I know about Dan Lanning is he's got that FU to him. If he has a chance to put it on somebody, he will. If I'd only seen the box score I could get behind Oklahoma State. Having watched it with my eyes, I want no part."

Fezzik's framing: "Who's better, Boise or Oklahoma State? Boise. So why the hell are we betting +22 with the crap team when we could have taken the GOOD team at +24 against Oregon?"

❌ WASHINGTON -26.5 vs UTAH STATE — UNBETTABLE

AJ: "Utah State didn't just lose at home — they got THUMPED at home by Idaho State. You get beat by double digits by an FCS team and I can't look to back you. These teams looked so atrocious last week they're almost unbeddable to me right now. How does Utah State perform better against a high-end Big Ten team when they couldn't even COMPETE with Idaho State?"

⭐ MICHIGAN +5.5 vs OKLAHOMA — THE ADJUSTMENT DEBATE

The line history: Look-ahead Oklahoma -1.5 → all the way to -6 → settled at -5.5.

Scott: "Is this a hold-your-nose back-Michigan play because the line has gone too far — or has it not gone far ENOUGH?"

Fezzik: "I think it's about right. Seven points looks like the maximum downgrade we should give a team, and we're giving it to Michigan.

A lot of sharps are talking about outstanding value playing Michigan. Well — if it was that outstanding, how did Bookmaker get to +7 earlier in the week? If +7 was out there for a real bet, I find it hard to believe +5.5 is outstanding."

🔑 AJ'S KEY INSIGHT ON WEEK 1 OVERREACTIONS

AJ: "The ONE time you can make a massive adjustment is week one — because with roster turnover, this Michigan team is nothing like a year ago. New coach, new system, new players with NIL and the portal. A lot of preseason numbers are just your best guess.

You'd never do a seven-point downgrade in the NFL — if the Bears get their ass kicked Sunday, we know what most of that roster is. With Michigan it's such a different roster that any preseason power rating has to be very movable. I was willing to move Michigan down AND Oklahoma up.

On a neutral I have Oklahoma about ten better. So 5.5 in Michigan doesn't feel outrageous."

⭐ THE PLAY: MICHIGAN TEAM TOTAL UNDER 18.5

Scott: "Last year in his freshman year, Bryce Underwood against this Brent Venables defense: 9 of 24 for 142 yards, no touchdowns, and he looked overmatched. He looked overmatched against Western Michigan.

Kyle Whittingham said Underwood is the starter 'for now.' So if he starts and plays, why is it going to look any different than last year? Michigan team total under 18.5 has to be a play."

AJ: "I don't disagree — and even if they switch quarterbacks mid-game, that might be all the better. Michigan only scored 13 against Oklahoma last year, and that was EARLY-season Oklahoma before they hit their stride. This Oklahoma defense is absolutely for real — I saw them hold a lot better teams than Michigan under that number, including LSU. Michigan couldn't score that against Western Michigan."

Fezzik's correlation note: "Play Michigan and parlay the under — you're counting on the Michigan defense to step up. Michigan's scoring 17 to 20 points, no more."

💰 FEZZIK: THE WIN TOTAL MARKETS AREN'T REACTING ENOUGH

His positions:

AJ on Clemson: "Another example of what we knew before the season versus what we've seen. If you made a huge adjustment on Clemson after one game, I can't blame you one bit — there was a lot of guesswork."

On UMass: "UMass is a heck of a lot better than we thought — I don't care how bad Rutgers is. But I'm not running to bet on them. I don't know that UMass is really all that great."

🔥 THE GAME OF THE WEEK: #1 OHIO STATE AT #4 TEXAS

Texas -1.5, total 49.5

⭐ FEZZIK'S PLAY: FIRST HALF UNDER 24.5 (-120)

Fezzik: "The market's really not sure who should be favored — nor am I. Basic strategy in these games always seems to be play the under, specifically the FIRST HALF under.

My guys who make totals don't agree — they make it 50, so they see no value. You know what? I don't care. I've seen this movie before. Both teams are trying not to make the big mistake that costs them the game, and maybe they open it up after they get behind.

A key number of 24 — so I will absolutely pay ten cents for the hook. Put me down. AJ, how am I going to lose that bet?"

AJ: THE UNDER AND TEXAS

AJ: "I'm fine with the full game under. 14-7 last year. Despite all the hype around Arch and Julian Sayin, this was a DEFENSE game and I don't expect different.

I worked in Austin a long time and covered both the home and away in '05 and '06 — the Vince Young years, some of the best offenses Texas ever had. Even the game they WON was 25-22. The one they lost was 24-7. Everything was muted because of the atmosphere. Nobody wants to make the big mistake.

And Arch has talked all week about how before every game last season he told himself: I can't let myself play like I played against Ohio State. Texas outplayed Ohio State for most of that game — it was one bad throw on third down that lost it. The fact that he's so focused on this game is great news if you're a Texas backer. My favorite play is the under, but if forced to pick a side, I like Texas."

🎓 FEZZIK ON TEASING COLLEGE FOOTBALL

The rule: DON'T. "In general when you tease college, make sure you're getting even money. Still don't tease. Never tease totals."

The rare exception: "A super low total, like an eight-point favorite down to -2 — an Army-Navy type game. But you need a tease partner, so you need two good outcomes.

The one time I've teased: every now and then a book is on AUTO MOVE. A nor'easter blows in, the total free-falls from 49 to under 49 at -180 — and the book isn't moving it to 45, they're keeping the 49. I've teased it to under 55, because I'm really getting an ELEVEN point teaser at a six-point price."

⚠️ AND THE WORST BET IN SPORTS

"The worst is teasing one NFL game with one college team — now you're getting it right up the you-know-what.You're laying -280 on a six-point teaser."

(Scott, quietly: "Just erases his Ohio State +7.5, Houston Texans +7.5 two-leg teaser. Cancel.")

⭐ AJ'S BEST BET: FLORIDA ATLANTIC +4.5 (and some moneyline)

AJ: "I'm looking to fade Navy. I thought they'd be a pretty bad team — then last week they looked really good beating up Towson, a team that isn't even good at the FCS level. Meanwhile Florida Atlantic played Florida and got beat up by superior athletes, exactly as you'd expect.

There's an overreaction on both ends. You thought Navy was bad, now maybe they're not. You thought FAU might be good — they WERE last year — then they play Florida and maybe they're not.

FAU can throw it around. And they were one of the worst teams in the country in turnover margin last year — I think that gets fixed. And Navy isn't going to turn it over a bunch.

I like FAU. I'll play some moneyline, but 4.5 is the official number."

📅 Coming Up

This Weekend

• 🏈 DAN AND MACK SURVIVE THE NFL debuts — as soon as tomorrow on this feed, plus a Survivor newsletter to help with your picks
• Will the Steelers be your Survivor pick?

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