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# Football Friday: October 23rd, 2026
- URL: https://www.bettorday.com/football-friday-october-23rd-2026/
- Published: 2026-10-23T17:35:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-23T17:35:23.000Z
- Author: Scott Seidenberg
- Tags: Newsletter

## TNF Recap, NFL Trends & CFB Spots

*Scott Seidenberg recaps TNF as the Bears snap the underdog cover streak beating the Patriots. Plus we hear from the Bettor Day Football Show on key NFL matchups and College Football big games.*

[![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/07/NEW-POD-COVER.png)](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) 

Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe! 

[Listen ](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) 

# 🐻 BEARS 30, PATRIOTS 24 — AND THE STREAK IS OVER

Chicago covered the three, the game went over, and **ten straight primetime underdogs covering comes to an end.**

##  🤡 Two Touchdowns in 14 Seconds, Both Indefensible

The over got there on the single worst stretch of defense you'll see this season — on both sides.

**First:** Luther Burden, on third down from the 24, catches it and runs into the end zone through what Scott called "some of the worst defense and tackling attempts by the New England Patriots that you would have said, at that point, there's no way we could see a worse defensive play in this game."

**Then, on the ensuing possession with three seconds left in the half:** **Rhamondre Stevenson catches a dump-off from Drake Maye and goes 48 yards to the house** — "on a play where **defenders were running away from the football.**"

**Scott:** "It was mind-boggling. I tweeted it out last night and got a ton of reactions — the screenshots of the Bears defender, number 24, just running away from the tackle. It was just bizarre." *(It's up at @ScottsOnAir.)*

**The quarterbacks were both excellent:** Caleb Williams **308 yards**, Drake Maye **321.**

---

# 🇫🇷 PARIS: STEELERS vs. SAINTS — PITTSBURGH −3

## 📊 The Trend Scott Brought

> **International favorites: 44-16-1 straight up, 36-25 against the spread.**

The logic: no home field is being factored in, **and the better team is the favorite for a reason.**

## But Nobody on the Show Liked the Number

**AJ:** "With the Saints there are still a lot of questions injury-wise, obviously in their backfield. **Tyler Shough is probable at this point.**"

**On Rodgers, with admirable self-awareness:** "I've said for years Aaron Rodgers will never be good again. So as Fez and I have both said — **let's be careful of small sample sizes. I'm not going to take a two-week sample of Aaron Rodgers looking like a decent quarterback and suddenly feel like he's back.** I'm cautiously starting to come around on Pittsburgh, **but this doesn't feel like a fair number to me.**"

**The flip test, which is Fezzik's rule:** "**There's no world where, if the Steelers were favored by almost double digits, we wouldn't be laughing at the idea. But if these two were slightly switched, that would feel pretty normal.** So I think these teams are pretty similar — and three and a half has me leaning toward the Saints."

### 🧱 Fezzik: "I've Got Pittsburgh at a Zero"

**Fezzik:** "**They're no good, AJ. Come on, they stink. They get five yards per play.**"

**And his one-game explanation:** "I'll explain why Pittsburgh stinks in one game. **Week One, when they couldn't beat Atlanta and they needed a defensive touchdown miracle against Cooper Rush. That's why they stink.** They got that phony win — or we'd be saying, yeah, Pittsburgh, very average, mediocre."

---

## 🤯 THE STAT OF THE WEEK: THE SAINTS DO NOT PLAY FIRST HALVES

| Saints since Shough became the starter           | Record     |
| ------------------------------------------------ | ---------- |
| **First half, straight up**                      | **3-11-1** |
| **First half, ATS**                              | **4-11**   |
| **First quarter, straight up** *(last 27 games)* | **1-22-4** |
| **First quarter, ATS** *(last 27 games)*         | **4-23**   |

**Scott:** "So is it just Steelers first half? Steelers first quarter? Is it that simple?"

### ⭐ And Fezzik's execution note, which is the valuable part

> **"Very important: the marketplace never prices these first quarters correctly. They make it minus a half and the moneyline is better — even if you have to pay an extra 60 cents of vig. Or just bet the Steelers to score first. You get a much cheaper price, usually."**

---

# 🐕 DOGS OFF A LOSS

The trend we printed yesterday from Evan Daniel: **dogs off a loss against favorites off a win are 17-8 ATS this season.**

## This week's four qualifiers

**Buccaneers vs. Panthers · Colts vs. Vikings · Falcons vs. 49ers · Giants vs. Texans**

### ⭐ AJ's pick of the four: ATLANTA

**AJ:** "The Falcons appeal to me. **The 49ers are so banged up — I don't know who catches the football for them.**Tough travel spot going all the way across to Atlanta."

"Not that I think the 49ers are overvalued — **I think they're very good, quite frankly. But they're not going to go 17-0\. A spot to slip up has got to be coming.** I think this is a good spot for Atlanta."

**On the number:** "**I'd love to see a three. I'm not running to take a two and a half, even a reduced two and a half.**But Atlanta's the one that would interest me."

**Fezz's supporting angle:** **three straight home games for the Falcons, and they lost the first two.** "That's a great spot for them to bounce back as an underdog."

### ❌ And why he's off the other three

**AJ:** "**I wouldn't play the Giants with your money with J.J. McCarthy playing quarterback.** The Vikings coming off a bye week makes me not want to fade them. And thinking about the Vikings defense going up against Daniel Jones, **who can't handle a blitz to begin with — that just seems disastrous.**"

---

# 🔥 SUNDAY NIGHT: CHIEFS AT SEAHAWKS — THE WEEK'S BIGGEST SPLIT

**Seattle is now a 3-point favorite over the undefeated Chiefs.**

**Scott, who already has Kansas City at +2.5 from early in the week:** "I need help understanding this line. **Why are the Seahawks a three-point favorite over the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs?**"

## ⭐ AJ: SEATTLE IS MY FAVORITE PLAY OF THE WEEK IN THE NFL

**His case is entirely about schedule:**

> **"The strength of schedule difference between these two teams is massive. The Seahawks have really been tested. And the three losses were all three-point games. They're one play away from being 6-0 — against much tougher competition than Kansas City."**

**And the matchup:** "**It's so difficult to run on Seattle. We haven't seen anyone have success running on them. And Kansas City's offense this year has been Kenneth Walker.** So if Walker is half of what he's been in most games this season, **they're going to be putting a lot on Patrick Mahomes — who they haven't had to lean on yet.**"

"Seattle is underrated based on the win-loss results, even though **they probably should have beaten Denver. They definitely should have beaten Washington.**"

## 🙅 Scott's Counter: Sam Darnold

**Scott:** "Darnold, statistically, is playing like **the worst quarterback in the NFL not named Justin Herbert.** He is having a horrific season. **And now I have to trust him as a field goal favorite over the Kansas City Chiefs.**"

| Sam Darnold      |                                            |
| ---------------- | ------------------------------------------ |
| **Total QBR**    | **26th** *(up from 29th after last week)*  |
| **EPA per play** | **3rd from the bottom** among starting QBs |

**The only quarterbacks below him by EPA/play (min. 100 dropbacks):** Malik Willis, Cam Ward, Justin Herbert and Baker Mayfield — "but Baker's only played three games."

## 🤝 Fezzik Splits the Difference — Then Picks Seattle

**His power ratings:** "Pretty much equal teams. You do have the **Kenneth Walker revenge game**, so that's good for Kansas City. **And eventually Kansas City is going to lose a game — this is a prime candidate.**"

**Yards per play:** Chiefs **+1.9** ("cupcake schedule, but that's really solid"), Seattle only **+1.3** ("and a lot of that was built off bad teams"). His verdict: "**If you get the plus three, you could invest in Kansas City.**"

**But then AJ made the case against:** "**Denver's a good defense — the only reason Denver's worth a damn is their defense. And Seattle doubled them up.** I think Seattle's been unlucky. I'm not saying Darnold's great — **but because Seattle hasn't been able to run the ball, Sam has been asked to do a lot more.**"

> **"Meanwhile, nobody's mentioned — does Mahomes look rusty? No. Because everything that's happened in Kansas City has been covered up by the fact that Kenneth Walker's been phenomenal. I don't think that's going to be able to happen."**

**His closing line:** "**If you tell me a team is going to double the other team in yardage, I'm going to take that team minus the field goal every time and just cross my fingers they don't turn the ball over three times.**"

## 📏 THE aDOT ARGUMENT THAT SEALED IT

| Average depth of target   | Rank                             |
| ------------------------- | -------------------------------- |
| **League leader**         | **10.38**                        |
| **League average (16th)** | **7.99**                         |
| **Patrick Mahomes**       | **6.55 — 5th LOWEST in the NFL** |
| **Bo Nix**                | **5.56 — lowest in the league**  |

**Fezzik:** "If the average is just under eight, and one guy's at 5.5 and another's at 6.5 — **it sounds like it's only one apart. It's way apart.**"

**AJ:** "**I can't back an offense right now that's so predicated on short passing and running against this Seattle front.**"

*Also: *Zach Charbonnet has been activated* and could return for Seattle, which Scott flagged as "a big boost to your bet." Seattle's backfield has been Emanuel Wilson and George Holani for a third straight week with their lead back injured.*

---

# 🎰 RAMS −3.5 AT RAIDERS

**The line has come DOWN from earlier in the week**, when the Rams were a heavier favorite.

**Scott ran the comparison again:** "**The Bills were just 4.5-point favorites against the Raiders in this same stadium last week.** We know home field doesn't mean anything for Vegas. I didn't understand how this line could be the same — **because the Bills are better than the Rams, and we just saw them beat the Rams.** I understand that's a results-based opinion. **But now we're seeing the market adjust.**"

### ⭐ Fezzik: "I Would Bet the Raiders"

**Fezzik:** "I think it's an excellent comparison. **I have them five points apart from each other. You give them 1.5 for home field, I get to 3.5.** But I've got to tell you — **I think I still have the Rams overrated. I would bet the Raiders.**"

### ⭐ AJ: "I Lean the Raiders Too"

"Important to remember what the line was last week. **The Raiders covered that line.** I'm with Fez — the Rams may be a little overrated, **but I think Buffalo's probably a little overrated too. A one-dimensional team right now, one of the worst defenses in the league, and a lot of the Bills games are coin flips.**"

**And the market-psychology read:** "**The market is so set on the Rams being the Super Bowl favorites in the preseason that they don't want to come off of that — even though there have been a lot of results, a lot of concerning things.**"

> 🐕 **And the other side of it: the Raiders are 5-1 against the spread this season. Feisty, feisty dogs.**

---

# 🏈 COLLEGE FOOTBALL

## 🥇 First: Credit Where It's Due

**Fezzik called BYU to beat Notre Dame outright. They did.** All three guys were on the +10.5, so it didn't matter for the ticket — but he called the upright winner. *(Scott's asterisk: "Although if there was one second left on the clock, we don't really know what would have happened.")*

---

## ⭐ AJ'S BEST BET OF THE WEEK: UCF +6.5 (GET THE +7)

**The line was north of a touchdown. Money has come in on UCF, now a 6.5-point home dog to the #2 Cougars at the Bounce House.**

**AJ:** "**This is a horrific spot for BYU.** The travel is obviously very tough. **That was such an emotional game, especially coming down to the very end. You had the field storming — you could tell it was a huge deal for them.**"

> **"These are the spots that we wait for in college football. These are the spots that we circle weeks in advance. If BYU beats Notre Dame, this is the spot where we want to fade BYU. And I don't think it could come at a better time — going to a tough place to play all the way across the country."**

### 🏠 And AJ's extra angle

"**Central Florida is coming off a two-game road trip — at Houston, at Oklahoma State — getting home for the first time in a couple of weeks. I think that's a big deal. They've historically been very good in that building. It's just too good of a number to not back the dog.**"

*On the conference generally: "As you look through the Big 12 you say, who's even good? Is Houston good? Is Oklahoma State good? Is Utah good? *I don't think there are a lot of high-quality teams in that league.*"*

---

## ⛰️ #14 HOUSTON AT #10 UTAH — UTES −6.5, SATURDAY NIGHT

### ⭐ Scott's altitude database

> **Utah at home in primetime (7 PM-plus starts) since 2020: 13-5 straight up, 14-4 ATS.** **They have won seven straight, both straight up and against the spread.**

"The last time they lost was November 2024 — **they lost to Iowa State as 3.5-point dogs, but they covered.** Before that, a loss to BYU, which we're canceling out because as Fez said, there's no advantage or disadvantage there. And a 13-7 loss to TCU in October 2024."

### 🌡️ Fezzik on why it travels so badly

"**I don't want the road team.** You look at that conference and a lot of the teams are in the mountains, so it's much more likely you get a BYU-Utah game where there's no real advantage. **But you've got a team from Houston — last time I checked, Houston is at sea level. And it's hot and it's muggy.** The whole frenzied environment, with the arid air — it's just so different."

"**They've done studies with marathon runners.** Somebody's running in the mountains, and then they've got to run in Florida in the heat and humidity, and they have all kinds of trouble. And vice versa. **It's just not what you're used to.**"

### ⭐ AJ's hard-and-fast rule

> **"It's bad business to bet against Utah at home. It's one of my hard and fast rules — I just don't do it. You can't talk me into betting against the Utes at home. Especially at night. It's Utah or pass for me."**

---

## 🎰 THE SYSTEM PLAY: #19 TEXAS −3.5 vs. #7 OLE MISS

| The system since 2021 | Record              |
| --------------------- | ------------------- |
| **Straight up**       | **64-25**           |
| **ATS**               | **56-32-1**         |
| **This season**       | **7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS** |

*The two straight-up losses: Georgia over Alabama, and Iowa's final-second score against Michigan. The ATS slip came last week when Houston won by three and didn't cover.*

**Fezzik deferred:** "**Something's so broken with that Texas offense. They still have a really fine defense.** I don't know. What do you think, AJ?"

### ⭐ AJ IS ON TEXAS

**AJ:** "I'll be on Texas this week. **We've seen Arch respond when he's been bad in the past. When he's posted these horrific games like he did last week, typically he has bounced back.** And if anything's going to get him right, it's playing against the Ole Miss defense, which has not been very good."

"**The Ole Miss offense is obviously fantastic. But this Texas defense is elite.** They'll be without Colin Simmons, which sucks — **he's an absolute game wrecker, probably the best defensive player in the game so far this year.** But I just think the depth of Texas's defense is too much. **I think the system will ride again. I think Texas gets the job done.**"

**⭐ And a second play on the same game:** "**I think it's an over as well. I think this is a sneaky high-scoring game. I think Texas puts up more points than they have in a couple of weeks.**"

### 🏠 HOUSE SPLIT: BEARMAN IS ALL-IN THE OTHER WAY

Worth flagging, because it's the same game in the same week from the same site.

**On Wednesday's pod, David Bearman was pushing all-in on OLE MISS +3** — "I am splashing the pot whenever the heck I want," "Ole Miss is the better team and it's not even close," and the eye-test manifesto: "There's models, there's systems, there's stats, there's guts — and then there's the freaking eyeballs."

**Today, AJ is on Texas and the system.** Two contributors, opposite sides, both with their reasoning on the record. Take your pick.

---

## 🌙 Thursday Night College Results

**App State 34, James Madison 31 (OT)** — **App State won outright as double-digit dogs**, snapping James Madison's undefeated bid. The Dukes fall to 7-1.

**Liberty 34, Kennesaw State 6** — this was one of Scott's model's lopsided games, and it was never close. **AJ liked the under, which also cashed.**

*The model's Saturday college football plays go out in the morning newsletter.*

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