Football Friday: NFL Week 6 & CFB Week 7

Scott Seidenberg recaps TNF and takes a look at this weekend in the NFL and College Football with insights from Steve Fezzik & AJ Hoffman on the Bettor Day Football Show.

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🏔️ BRONCOS 17, SEAHAWKS 14 (OT) — AND THE MATH SAW IT COMING

Denver won a game it had no business winning and absolutely should have won by three scores. Both things are true.

📉 The Ugliest Winning Line You'll See

Scott: "The final 10 drives for the Denver Broncos resulted in 32 yards of offense. And yet they still won this football game."

Bo Nix: 17-of-27 for 107 yards, no touchdowns, a 71.1 rating — and here's the number that tells you what that offense was: Denver's passing game produced 20 air yards all night. Seattle had 207. J.K. Dobbins had 17 carries for 41 yards. Denver punted eight times.

Scott: "If Denver could have done anything offensively in this game, the Broncos would have won easily by multiple scores in regulation."

🛡️ The Defense Was the Whole Thing

😬 Sam Darnold Was Bad, 278 Yards Or Not

Darnold: 27-of-51, 278 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions, a 52.6 passer rating, sacked five times.

Scott: "Sam Darnold looked terrible despite ending the game with 278 passing yards. The biggest interception being in overtime, which gave Denver the ball in plus territory and allowed them to kick the game-winning field goal."

And we flagged this Wednesday and Thursday, so it isn't hindsight:

Darnold is second-worst in the NFL in total QBR, ahead of only Justin Herbert. By quarterback EPA he's third-worst, ahead of only Herbert and Cam Ward.

Scott: "Maybe losing his offensive coordinator, Kubiak, has played a larger role than we thought coming into this season. But we shouldn't be surprised by the way Darnold played last night, because he's been bad all season."

One Seattle bright spot — and it cashed a leg: JSN finished with 12 catches for 134 yards.

⏱️ How Seattle Even Got to Overtime

The Seahawks did nothing until they were down 14-3. Jason Myers hit a 55-yarder early in the first and that was the entire first-half output; they also fumbled in the second quarter and missed a field goal in the third.

Scott: "They really shouldn't have even had the ball late, because the Broncos messed up with some clock management stuff and Bo Nix made a bad decision, throwing an incomplete pass — an absolutely terrible football IQ play there at the end."

🧮 THE TRANSITIVE PROPERTY: WHY −2.5 NEVER MADE SENSE

This is the segment worth keeping, and Scott ran it on his VSiN show last night too. We printed the power-ratings version Thursday — the BettorDay Line had Seattle −1, Fezzik had them −2.5 on a neutral. Here's the cleaner proof.

The market priced both of these teams against the same opponent in back-to-back weeks.

Scott: "So if two weeks ago the Seahawks were five points better than the Chargers, and last week the Broncos were five points better than the Chargers — then how this week were the Seahawks four points better than the Broncos?"

"The market told us both these teams were five points better than the Chargers in back-to-back weeks. So how could that same market then tell us they're four points apart from each other? You want to say they're one point apart? Two points apart? I get it. Four points? That's too much of a stretch."

Remember the line was Seattle −2.5 on the road, which backs out to roughly −4 on a neutral once you give Denver its home field — even after you price in the short week and the altitude.

Broncos were the right side and they showed it.

🐕 EIGHT STRAIGHT FOR PRIMETIME DOGS — NINE OF THE LAST TEN

Not covered. Won outright. Denver makes it eight in a row.

Can we get to nine?

🩸 JALEN HURTS IS OUT — AND THE LINE MOVED EXACTLY AS THE MODEL SAID IT SHOULD

Jalen Hurts will not play against Carolina. He has a blood clot. Tanner McKee starts.

This is a genuinely useful case study in backup-quarterback pricing.

📊 The Preseason Number Nailed It

Scott: "If we look at the preseason backup quarterback rankings — and we've talked about this with Michael Fiddle — the consensus was that going from Jalen Hurts to Tanner McKee was 5.25 points."

"Minus 1.5 to now plus 3.5. That's a five-point adjustment. Plus you're going through a key number of three, so it's a little bit more. So it's kind of right on cue with what the 5.25 said before the season."

⭐ Scott's position: wait

Scott: "First off, I'm not running to the window to bet the Eagles plus three and a half. But I can't lay three and a half with the Carolina Panthers either. Now plus four, different story — four is a little bit of a key. Four and a half? Certainly I'd be on the Philadelphia Eagles. So it's a wait-and-see approach."

🎟️ The Circa Millions Angle

The contest number is stale. Circa posted the Panthers at −1 when the lines came out; the market is now −3.5. That 2.5-point gap makes Carolina one of the heaviest selections of the week.

Scott's game theory note, which cuts the other way: "You shouldn't be taking the Eagles at plus one in the contest, because you can just bet the Eagles at plus three and a half at the counter. So you don't need to start playing game theory and take the Eagles in the contest."

🦅 Philadelphia Is Not Dead

Scott: "I don't think they're out of it just yet in the division, because even if they lose this game, they have three consecutive games in the division — Commanders, Giants, Cowboys. And if Jalen Hurts is back and they win those three games, they're going to be in first place in the NFC East. Or I should say the NFC Least."

🇬🇧 THE FOOTBALL SHOW: AJ IS NOT BUYING THE TEXANS

Scott opened by asking if he was crazy for thinking Houston wins outright in London. AJ said yes, and brought the receipts.

AJ: "I'm not high on the Texans right now. Everybody thinks maybe they're figuring it out, or they've been this sleeping giant. I think the Texans have a coaching problem. I don't think they're very well coached on either side of the ball."

📊 The Schedule Argument

Four of Houston's five opponents rank in the bottom eight of defensive EPA — Buffalo, Indianapolis, Dallas and Tennessee. Only Cincinnati didn't.

Jacksonville is 3rd in defensive EPA.

This is the first top-ten defense Houston will have seen all season.

AJ: "They've struggled offensively unless they're playing a team like the Cowboys, where they can put up 30, or even the Bills, where they put up 31. But everybody they've played except the Bengals has been in the bottom quarter of the league in defensive efficiency."

"Fez loves yards per play, and in that stat these two teams are very similar. I just think some of the underlying stuff is not strong for the Texans. I don't trust them to put up points consistently against a decent defense. And their defense has been way worse than it was a year ago — when that's what this team was built on."

On last week's 26-3: "I know they held Tennessee to three. But the Tennessee Titans aren't a real football team. You've got to throw that out the window."

His landing spot: "I might be higher on the Jags and lower on the Texans than the market. I've looked at Jags moneyline a lot this week and that still may end up being where I land."

🙅 And He's Not Buying Marvin Harrison Jr. as the Fix

Marvin Harrison Jr. makes his Texans debut Sunday in London.

AJ: "No, that's your fix? A guy that pretty much every other team said 'oof, no thanks' to."

Scott: "Was Stroud with him at Ohio State? Does that make us more bullish on him getting some catches?"

AJ: "They did play together. I think it's going to be force-fed. It's 'I got my boy back, here we go.' And there's not really any other option outside Nico Collins — who is what he is, and he's easily the best player on that offense. Tank Dell just got back to practice but won't play this week; they're hoping to have him next week. So there's no secondary option, and I'd imagine Harrison at least gets some looks."

"The problem is he's been getting looks since he's been in the league. It's the actually-catching-the-football part of the job that's been difficult."

🎲 BILLS AT RAIDERS: THE KUMBAYA WEEK

Line: Bills −5.5 (moved up from −4.5)

Buffalo stayed on the West Coast after Monday night rather than flying home.

Fezzik loves it

Fezzik: "You nailed it. We just saw the Bills have the crowd in LA. They'll have the crowd in Vegas — there's really no home field advantage for the Raiders anyway."

"And the key to the Kumbaya week out west — I love where they're spending the week. Sleepy little Irvine, in Orange County"

"I've seen good teams — the Niners are kings at this — have a lot of success when they spend a week together.That's the only side I would look to."

⭐ AJ'S PROP: BROCK BOWERS

AJ: "The Bills defense is dreadful, quite frankly. It's not quite Cowboys bad, but it's not much better. And they've had no answer for opposing tight ends. I think Brock Bowers — the best in the business — eats against this defense."

"I like this game to be a lot of scoring. I can't count on these Raiders to hold down a guy putting up huge numbers every week, and I can't count on that defense to suddenly stop anybody. So I like the over, but the Brock Bowers prop is going to be my favorite look."

⭐ AND THE JOSH ALLEN REVERSAL

Scott: "I kind of want to bet a Josh Allen passing prop over, or a rushing prop under. After he ran so much Monday night and everyone noted they only passed seven times in the first half — I can't believe the way the Rams played defense, just dropping back and letting Josh Allen run. The NFL is a week-to-week league. I have to believe it reverses itself here. It would seem like this is the week Allen doesn't run and they pass 30-something or 40-something times."

Fezzik agrees: "Playing Josh Allen under for rush yards makes a ton of sense, because he's been banged up — he's got multiple injuries already — and they'd save the rushes for the high-leverage games like the one they just played."

And then the honest caveat, which is the best risk note of the show: "Having said that — Cook is fumbling like crazy. So I can't just hand it to Cook 25 times, because that means I'll have a turnover. That concerns me."

🏈 COLLEGE FOOTBALL: MOVING DAY

AJ on the slate: "It's kind of moving day for some of these teams. Some teams are going to separate themselves. Some teams now with a loss realize their backs are against the wall."

"Texas and Florida are two good examples. Two weeks ago Florida was the belle of the ball and looked like they were on top of the world. They've lost two straight and now they're playing for any hopes this season. Whereas Texas — the shine kind of comes off. A team that has felt a little bit fraudulent, that felt like they were getting by on one good half of play against Ohio State that was buoying their whole season. Now you've got to decide who's for real and who's not."

🎰 TWO SYSTEM PLAYS

A refresher

The two losses: Alabama losing to Georgia, and Iowa scoring on the final play of the game against Michigan.

❌ #16 Mississippi State at #22 LSU — LSU −14.5

AJ: "Normally I'm with you on these system plays, but there's no way I'm laying two touchdowns plus with LSU. It just doesn't make sense right now."

His case against LSU: "What they're hanging their hat on is beating a Texas A&M team at nighttime in a game that now it turns out A&M's no good either. Other than that, they beat Clemson. In the preseason those looked like two good wins. The only other teams they've played with a pulse handled them — they lost at Ole Miss and they lost at Kentucky. And I think Kentucky's pretty good."

His case for Mississippi State: "This is a team that has been surprising. I'm certainly not looking to fade a guy who's been maybe the best player in college football in Kamario Taylor, catching two touchdowns, when their only loss this season has been to Alabama. They got blown out by Alabama — but LSU is not Alabama. I don't think LSU is capable of doing what Alabama did to Mississippi State."

Verdict: "I'm not sure if I'm going to take Mississippi State, but there is no world where I'm laying these points with LSU."

✅ #18 Oklahoma State at #20 Houston — Houston −4.5

AJ stays with the system, with one reservation.

"I wanted to lay it with the Coogs, but they do have a pretty strong look-ahead — they're at Utah next week, probably the toughest game left on their schedule. That worries me a little."

On Oklahoma State: "Nothing against them, the run has been nice. But looking back now, beating West Virginia and Central Florida doesn't tell you a whole lot. The two data points that told us what we thought we knew early on were that Tulsa loss, which was horrendous, and the Oregon win. And that Oregon win has not aged the way they'd hoped — there's a world where maybe Oregon's just not very good at all."

"So you're probably paying a tax on Oklahoma State based on the results since that opening-week loss. I'm not interested in it. It would be Coogs or pass for me."

Fezzik's only position in the game: the OVER.

🛣️ TWO TOP-10 ROAD FAVORITES — AND THE DATABASE HATES THEM

Scott expanded the sample because Fezzik doesn't like short ones.

Scott: "It's almost inherent that I just want to blindly take the home dog in these matchups."

Fezzik: "You go back to the LSU-Ole Miss game and just the frenzied home field advantage. I don't think it's priced enough. This is the game of the year for both these teams."

🌰 #4 Ohio State at #5 Indiana — Buckeyes −3.5

Fezzik passes: "I don't like Indiana. I don't think they're nearly as good as last year. Everyone knows that, though — that's reflected in the line. And Ohio State's got revenge on the Big Ten playoff game last year. So no interest."

⭐ AJ'S FAVORITE PLAY ON THE GAME: THE UNDER

AJ: "This was a 13-10 game in the Big Ten Championship last year — and that game featured the number one overall pick in the draft. These teams both play very slow. Neither one is going to want to make a mistake."

"With the tempo of these two teams, and what the offensive numbers have done when they've gone up against better competition — I think this is going to be a grimy, slow, ugly rock fight. Old school Big Ten."

And a side lean with a tell attached: "I'd like Indiana. Cignetti at home catching over three just seems crazy to me.And especially — he's been talking about how his team doesn't have a shot, they're no good. That to me spells like he knows something that we don't know."

AJ: "He does. And remember last year in that Big Ten Championship game — Jeremiah Smith had a phenomenal game, and there were still only 10 points on the board for them at the end of the day. They're going to game plan him out. I don't see a lot of Ohio State success passing the ball. I don't see a lot of Indiana success running the ball."

☘️ #2 Notre Dame at #8 BYU — Irish −10.5, 7:30 ET kickoff

🔥 FEZZIK'S BOLD PREDICTION

"Notre Dame might be the best team in the country. They're going to lose in Provo this weekend. This has the classic where a team jumps up and plays so far above their heads their noses will bleed for a month.This is the game of the decade in Provo"

Scott's angle: "Every week I've been betting Notre Dame, it's been like betting the opponent's rushing total to go under, because absolutely no one has been able to run on Notre Dame. BYU can run on Notre Dame — now, they have to be healthy. We'll wait to see the injury status."

AJ splits the difference and doubts both teams:

"I'm not sure I disagree with Fez that Notre Dame might be the best team in the country. But we haven't seen them play a team that warrants saying that yet. Your best win is Purdue. Let's slow down a little bit."

"This is certainly the first real test they've had. Double digits going away doesn't feel like a good spot. And this is BYU's Super Bowl, while Notre Dame still has Miami on the schedule — Notre Dame's thinking about playoff games. They saw this when the schedule came out."

On BYU, though: "As good as they've been, I'm not sure them being the number eight team in the country is quite accurate — because who have you beaten? You beat Iowa State at home, that's their best win. TCU's offense is pathetic. Pathetic. And they almost lost to TCU. That's concerning for me."

Gun to his head: "I've got to back the dog here catching over 10, but I'm not thrilled about it. I don't think either of these teams are great. This is going to be one of those matchups where once we get to the playoffs we go, 'yeah, at least they saw someone remotely decent.' This isn't going to feel like a top-10 matchup."

And both agreed: Notre Dame can lose this game and still be in the playoff.

🥤 THE BYU PRIMETIME HOME DOG DATABASE

Scott pulled this for the 7:30 ET kickoff. Start times after 7 PM ET, going back to 2021:

And as a home underdog in primetime — it's only happened six times:

5-1 straight up.

📐 SCOTT'S THREE MOST LOPSIDED MODEL GAMES

The model went 3-0 last week. Here are this week's three, ranked by how lopsided the edges come back.

1️⃣ San Jose State −7.5 at UTEP

Every edge in the model favors San Jose State.

AJ: "I don't hate it. Mostly because I thought UTEP was in a home run spot last week. They'd lost to Michigan, lost to Oregon State, got dominated at New Mexico — it was a strength-of-schedule play for me against Nevada. A team that's played those teams, plus Oklahoma early. And I said Nevada's played nobody. And it turns out, no — UTEP's just dreadful. They can't do anything against good teams or bad teams. It doesn't matter. They're pathetic. So if anything, I'm leaning with you on San Jose State."

2️⃣ New Mexico −15.5 at Hawaii

Scott's metric flag, and it's a big one:

AJ: "Hawaii's broken. That offense is in shambles — they are not competitive right now. They came to the mainland last week and put up a better showing than a lot of people thought against Arizona State, but statistically they were blown out. They just can't score. And if you can't score you're going to have a really hard time against New Mexico, because New Mexico is holding everybody down."

⭐ His play: "Hawaii might not score two touchdowns in this game. I'd play a Hawaii team total under. There's no way they're going to put anything up against this defense that New Mexico has taken a lot of pride in. They've got a great new head coach there. I love the Lobos in this spot."

3️⃣ Oregon State −18.5 vs. Washington State

Six out of six edges in the model favor Oregon State.

⭐ AJ's play: the Oregon State team total over. "They are continuing to put up huge numbers. Washington State is not the type of defense that's going to slow them down."

"Travel to Corvallis is tough, though not as bad for Washington State as for some. The last couple weeks Washington State's opponents haven't had huge outings — but that was Utah State and Fresno State. Pretty bad offensive teams, pretty slow teams. I think Oregon State puts a pace on that is just impossible to keep up with. And Oregon State doesn't take their foot off the gas. They will run it up on you if they get the chance — and I imagine they will."

📈 Is Oregon State the biggest riser in the country?

AJ: "They're up there. They lost their first two games against Power Four competition — Texas Tech and Houston, one order or the other. But since then they've been a juggernaut. They've got the right quarterback, and the right coach to fit that quarterback. Against G6 competition, it's hard to imagine anybody whose stock is rising more."

"There's a game coming up in a couple weeks against Texas State where they may need to add a third digit to the scoreboard to keep up."

🐻 UCLA on Upset Alert?

UCLA −2.5 at home vs. Wisconsin, with a backup quarterback.

AJ: "I don't know what to think of UCLA with a backup quarterback. I've been excited about UCLA — I thought that number was just wrong last week. But a quarterback can shake up a lot of things. I guess they are on upset alert. I don't know that they'll lose, but I certainly don't feel good backing them here. It's a game they should win."

"And as much as I like what UCLA's done — take it with the same grain of salt you've taken me with. If your best win is Oregon, is that a great win? And right behind that, their best win is Purdue. I made fun of Notre Dame for the exact same thing."

⚾ SCOREBOARD: THE BREWERS ARE GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES

Milwaukee completed the sweep, beating the Dodgers 6-4 in Game 4 at Dodger Stadium. The Brewers win the NLCS 4-0.

In the ALCS, Cleveland leads 2-1 after a 3-2 Game 3 win at home. Game 4 is in Cleveland, and the model has it a true coin flip.

📅 Coming Up

• 📺 Missed the Football Show? The full live stream is on YouTube and on X 
• 📝 This weekend: Jake Novakovich's college football free play article
• 🪟 Saturday: Dan and Macken Survive the NFL, Week 6

🚀🏀 LAUNCHING THIS WEEKEND: THE REMODELED NBA FIRST QUARTER / FIRST HALF DATABASE

What's in it

The game-day side:

• Prop projections
• Full schedule with game boards and where the best lines are, book by book

The first quarter / first half database:

Click into any team for full game logs.

📍 Live this weekend on BettorDay.com and the Bettor Day mobile app, ahead of Tuesday's tip-off. Become a Bettor Day Insider or Premium member to get it. Compare tiers →