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# Football Friday, November 6th, 2026
- URL: https://www.bettorday.com/football-friday-november-6th-2026/
- Published: 2026-11-06T11:00:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-06T11:00:03.000Z
- Author: Scott Seidenberg
- Tags: Newsletter

## NFL Week 9 & College Football Week 10

*Scott Seidenberg recaps TNF as the Jaguars route the Ravens. What about all the other QB moves around the NFL? Plus the Bettor Day Football Show previews the incredible slate of College Football for tomorrow.*

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# 🐆 JAGUARS 33, RAVENS 10 — THE WILDCAT GOT ANSWERED

**Jacksonville is 6-2 and rising up the AFC standings.**

**Scott took the Ravens +10\. The line closed at 9.5** — money came in on Baltimore. And the Wildcat theory we built across three straight episodes did get its test.

## What actually happened

> ⭐ **"The Ravens did line up in Wildcat for the first play, and they ran several Wildcat snaps. The Wildcat worked early in the first quarter — and then the Jaguars said: okay, you're not going to pass the ball, you're not going to trick us. We're going to sell out and stop the run. And that's exactly what they did."**

|                         |                                                                    |
| ----------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| **Derrick Henry**       | **17 carries, 57 yards — 3.4 per carry.** Longest run: **8 yards** |
| **Justice Hill**        | **9 carries, 85 yards, including a 65-yard touchdown**             |
| **Joe Fagnano**         | **10-of-18, 60 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT**                                |
| **Trevor Lawrence**     | 16-of-26, **242 yards**, 1 TD                                      |
| **Baltimore as a team** | 172 rushing yards — most of it on one play                         |

**It was 33-3 before Hill broke a couple of tackles on that long run.** Even with Jacksonville losing a defensive tackle to injury, the run defense held.

## 📋 Grading the card honestly

| Play                                    | Result                                           |
| --------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------ |
| **Derrick Henry UNDER rushing yards** ✅ | **WON** — 57 yards. *Played up on BettorDay.com* |
| **Henry longest rush OVER 13.5** ❌      | **LOST** — his longest was **8 yards**           |
| **Trevor Lawrence UNDER 237.5** ❌       | **LOST** — 242 yards                             |
| **Ravens +10** ❌                        | **LOST**                                         |

**And the miss Scott called out on himself:**

> ⭐ **"We should have played his OVER rushing attempts once we saw them line up in the Wildcat. That would have been the angle."**

**That's the lesson from the whole week.** We spent three days correctly predicting Baltimore would run it, and the way to monetize that was never the yardage — it was the attempts. Henry got his 17 carries. He just had nowhere to go with them. *The rain came down too, which is exactly what Evan flagged on Lawrence — and it didn't matter, because nothing the Ravens did was going to work.*

## Who's actually chasing Jacksonville in the AFC?

| Kalshi — to win the AFC | Yes     | No  |
| ----------------------- | ------- | --- |
| **Bills**               | **24¢** | 77¢ |
| **Jaguars**             | **18¢** | 83¢ |

**A $100 position on the Jaguars yes pays a maximum of $525.38.** And on Kalshi you can sell out of it — **if the Jags grab the one seed, you can take the profit without waiting on the AFC title game.**

**Scott's survey of the field:** The Bills and Josh Allen, obviously. **From the North, the Steelers are 6-2 and in first place — "does anybody buy them?" — with the Bengals 5-2.** From the West, he's still a fan of Denver: **"Bo Nix is Captain Clutch, but the stats don't blow you away."** And the Chiefs are on back-to-back losses while laying a big number to the Jets.

---

# 🔄 WEEK 9 IS A QUARTERBACK CAROUSEL

## Browns at Saints — **New Orleans −3**

**Deshaun Watson is in concussion protocol and Shedeur Sanders is taking first-team reps.** A sharp book has **−3 at −115.**

**Scott:** "**If it is Sanders making the start, then I like the Saints minus the three.**" The open question is whether the number moves off 3 once it's official.

## Eagles vs. Giants — **Joe Milton starts, Philadelphia +3 at home**

**Scott gets his callback:** "Remember I told Mackenzie Rivers that Milton would be the quarterback when the Eagles face the Cowboys on Thanksgiving? **Well, he's getting the early start.**"

**He likes Philly plus the points:** "**Milton can only make this offense better, because they were horrible with Tanner McKee.**"

### ⭐ The angle: Eagles receivers OVER their longest reception props

"**Joe Milton's got a big arm and he's going to be throwing the ball down the field. That has to be part of this Eagles offense now — to utilize his skill set.**"

## ⭐ Cardinals at Seahawks — **the teaser candidate of the week**

**Drew Lock starts for the injured Darnold. Minshew for Arizona. The line went from Seattle −11 to Seattle −8.5.**

**Scott doesn't buy the adjustment:** "**Sam Darnold has been playing so poorly this year — maybe it's because of the injury — that it's not a big drop-off. In fact I don't think it's ANY drop-off going to Drew Lock.** I get it, there's enthusiasm for Gardner Minshew. **But going from Seattle −11 to −8.5 makes no sense to me.**"

> ⭐ **"I like Seattle to roll here, and it's a great teaser candidate going from 8.5 down to 2.5\. The question is who you pair it with."**

**His candidate dance partners:**

- **Panthers +2.5 at home vs. Denver** → teased up to **+8.5**
- **The Bears from −6 to a pick'em** — but *"I don't think I'd do that on Sunday Night Football. I actually like the Bucs in that game."*

*The standing caveat: this only works if your book has good teaser pricing.*

## Monday night — **Carson Wentz starts for Minnesota**

Kyler Murray is injured. **Buffalo is a 3-point favorite in Minnesota.** More on Monday.

---

# 🏔️ COLLEGE FOOTBALL: THE BEST SLATE OF THE SEASON

*From Thursday's Better Day Football Show with Scott, Steve Fezzik and AJ Hoffman.*

## #9 BYU at #3 Utah — **Utah −4.5, total 48**

**Utah's highest ranking ever.** Noon Eastern, **10 a.m. local.** Wake and dirty soda!

**Scott:** "That win last week was such a statement — **to go on the road in a letdown-slash-look-ahead spot and absolutely dominate.** I think Utah wins at home. **But do they roll enough to cover 4.5?**"

**AJ: total pass.** "I wish I had something on this game. **I expected Utah to try to maximize the home field advantage — but a 10 in the morning kickoff just doesn't feel like it'll have quite the gravitas it would at night.** I've been looking for a way to fade both these teams and nothing jumps out. **I think Utah might have a hard time tackling. In general this feels like the number's about right.**"

**Fezzik takes the dog:** "**The dog is a bet. The altitude is a non-factor. You've got two pretty equal teams. I think it gets decided by a field goal.**" 

**Scott's hesitation:** if **LJ Martin** is back for BYU it makes their running game meaningfully better. "**Can I shop for a reasonable moneyline price on Utah? Because I think Utah wins the game. I just don't know if I want to lay 4.5.**"

### 📊 And the total: Holy War means under

**Scott's database pull:** **In the last sixteen Utah–BYU meetings, the under is 10-6.**

**All three lean under. Fezzik made it 48** — and **the under is his second best bet of the week:** "**a Holy War that should be very sleepy early in the day.**"

---

## ⭐ #7 Texas at #18 Missouri — **DOUBLE BEST BET: UNDER**

**Texas −2.5\. Fezzik's number on the total: 42.**

**AJ:** "**I would not lay it.** If I wanted Mizzou I'd have wanted an earlier number — now under three, you probably don't want to play them. **But I like the under.**"

> ⭐ **"Both teams are going to have a hard time running the football. And if Texas has a hard time running, the game becomes very dicey and the scoring drops drastically. They're going to be counting on their quarterbacks — and neither team wants to take big chances with their quarterbacks. They're both pretty solid on defense, Texas elite on defense. I don't think there are any advantages for the offenses in this game. Give me the under."**

**Fezzik: "That's the best bet for me. Under. We make it 42, and I agree with what AJ is saying."**

**Hollywood Smothers is done for the season*, which is bad news for the Texas running game AJ was already betting against.*

---

## ⭐ #5 Alabama at #14 LSU — **SCOTT'S MODEL SAYS LSU −6**

### The model edge is the disruption gap

|                | LSU defense           | Alabama offense          |
| -------------- | --------------------- | ------------------------ |
| **Havoc rate** | **4th in the nation** | **112th at allowing it** |
| **Sack rate**  | **2nd**               | **115th**                |

**Scott:** "In my model this is **the third-biggest top-25 game by z-score gap, and it's LSU with the edge.** The biggest gap is defensive disruption. **LSU will be able to get after the quarterback, create negative plays, tackles in the backfield. That's why I like LSU. I'm going to play LSU minus the six.**"

### But both co-hosts are stuck on the number

**AJ:** "**My numbers make this six and now it's at six.** Earlier in the week I probably should have bet it. **I didn't. I made a mistake thinking there'd maybe be Alabama money coming. Total pass for me.**"

**Fezzik made it LSU −8**

---

## #23 Oregon at #12 Ohio State — **AJ likes the OVER**

**Ohio State −7.5, without Julian Sayin.**

**AJ:** "**Oregon bit me last week against Northwestern** — the late comeback to not only steal the cover but steal the win outright."

> ⭐ **"I'll play a sort of sneaky over here. You're thinking, how are you doing that? Oregon's so bad on offense, Ohio State's without their quarterback. But what we saw last week with Ohio State — the quarterback play ended up not being their biggest problem. Their DEFENSE was no good. We're starting to see some chinks in that side of their armor. I think Oregon is dead. But they apparently don't, so they're still fighting."**

"**It's a tough game to pick the spread on. I probably would have played Ohio State at a straight seven. I don't think we're getting that. So it's going to be the over.**"

---

## 🚩 #6 Kentucky at #13 Tennessee — **HOUSE SPLIT**

**Tennessee −6.5\. Scott leans the points and wants a full 7.** *(Bearman is on Kentucky +6.5 looking for the 7 — so the house is split on this one.)*

**AJ takes Tennessee, and the reasoning is a real framework:**

> ⭐ **"This is a tough spot for Kentucky, and I think Tennessee's actually really good. Kentucky IS good — they find a way to win close games. But a lot of their record… Fezzik says it all the time: if the coin lands tails, do we look at it totally differently? I think we would look at Kentucky a lot different had their two-point conversion tries landed tails instead of heads. I think there's a little bit of value on Tennessee here."**

**His verdict:** "It's not something I'm running to the window to bet. **But it'd be home team or pass.**" *Kentucky also has Florida on deck.*

---

## ⭐ #2 Georgia at #10 Ole Miss — **AJ lays the 3.5, Scott leans the over**

**Total 56.5.**

**AJ:** "**I like Georgia. I think Lacy being out makes Ole Miss one-dimensional** — they're going to be throwing the ball a lot, counting on explosive plays, which they might get, because they've got a great quarterback. **But without Lacy to control the clock, which is what Ole Miss loves to do, they're going to have a hard time keeping the Dawgs off the field.**"

*And he agrees the over is reasonable for the exact same reason he likes the favorite — which is a clean piece of correlated logic.*

### ⭐⭐ THE CHAMBLISS CORRELATED BET

**Scott's pitch:** **Trinidad Chambliss is 10-to-1, the fourth Heisman favorite.** Jeremiah Smith's stock dips without Sayin. Darian Mensah's dips with Toney out and Notre Dame next. CJ Carr is third and people will argue Notre Dame hasn't played anybody. "**Chambliss at 10-to-1 almost feels like a correlated bet. If you think Ole Miss wins this game, maybe go with the 10-to-1.**"

**Scott: "After this game, Ole Miss plays Oklahoma, Wofford and Mississippi State."**

---

# ⭐⭐⭐ THE NOTRE DAME BEST BET

**Notre Dame is now −7.5 over Miami. Scott and AJ both played it at −5.5** — Scott's best bet, AJ's best bet, **and a consensus play sent to BettorDay Premium subscribers on Tuesday.**

**Scott laid out the committee argument again — the rankings told Notre Dame they can't lose, so this is a pissed-off, motivated, spiteful team in a must-win. Then Fezzik went to work.**

## Fezzik on the Number

> ⭐ **"Notre Dame's going to win by seven. And I'm going to say there's no way this belongs in your top plays. I want you to delete it. Turn around and say you're not going to lay 7.5\. If it was that easy — if you could smoke dope, sit back forty-eight hours, and then come on a podcast — it's up to minus ten, well why not, we'll just lay ten. It's too late. Think about this. Is Miami a top five team? Yes. Are we going to make money laying 7.5 in a good spot against a top five team? No. Therefore we pass."**

**AJ folded immediately, and said the quiet part:**

> ⭐ **"Fezzik's right. I've got no interest in this at 7.5 either. It boils down to: did you get the early number?** 

**AJ's position now:** "This was my first play of the week. I knew I was going to play it at anything under a touchdown. **But at 7.5 I'm actually tempted to take a little bit back and play some Miami — and see if I can pull a Fez and hit both sides of it.**"

*If you have the BettorDay mobile app, *turn your push notifications on*!*

---

## ⭐⭐ THE BET CONSTRUCTION: NOTRE DAME TO MISS THE PLAYOFF

**Scott's alternative to a Miami ML bet — and this is sharp:**

| The two ways to bet the same outcome                     | Price    |
| -------------------------------------------------------- | -------- |
| **Miami moneyline** (best available, shopped)            | **+240** |
| **Notre Dame to MISS the playoff** (one book, unshopped) | **+260** |

> ⭐ **"That's 20 cents better right there. And you could probably shop around and get better than +260\. It IS a correlated bet with Miami winning this game — because if Notre Dame loses this game, they will not make the College Football Playoff. So instead of Miami +240, take +260 on Notre Dame to miss the playoff. Or find better."**

**Fezzik's qualification, which is the part that makes it honest:**

> ⭐ **"That makes sense. But the problem is it's still inadequate. It's a better bet — but on the closer this is probably going to be like −278 / +276\. It's a superior bet that's still negative value. It's still negative EV. It's just less bad."**

---

# 📊 SCOTT'S TWO MODEL LOPSIDED PLAYS

## 1\. Michigan over Michigan State

**All edges go to Michigan.**

|                                             |           |
| ------------------------------------------- | --------- |
| **Michigan State, offensive explosiveness** | **137th** |
| **Michigan, explosiveness allowed**         | **23rd**  |

*Pass defense also favors Michigan against Michigan State's lack of a passing game.*

**AJ: "I lean to your side there. I lean to Michigan — but no play for me."**

## 2\. ⚠️ #5 UCLA at Minnesota — **AJ is on the other side**

|                  | UCLA defense | Minnesota run game |
| ---------------- | ------------ | ------------------ |
| **EPA per rush** | **3rd best** | **136th**          |
| **Line yards**   | **7th**      | **138th**          |

**AJ fades it:** "**I actually like the Gophers this week. The travel spot's tough for UCLA.** Is UCLA going to go unbeaten? I don't think so. **This feels like a game where the boats get rowed on. One of those weird games where Fleck just has his guys play better than they are — and then they'll probably lose a game they shouldn't next week. It's very Minnesota-y.**"

### ⭐ And Fezzik's rule-of-five test, which is a tool worth keeping

> ⭐ **"UCLA isn't going 12-0 against the spread. I think there's a point spread tax. We oftentimes use the rule of three, or the rule of five — move the spread five points. If you were just browsing and you said 'UCLA's pick against Minnesota,' you'd be like: well, UCLA's a good bet, but it's not an unreasonable line. Whereas if Minnesota was catching ELEVEN against UCLA, you'd be like: I'm hanging up on you right now to go make that bet."**

**Scott's concession:** "The situation here is the spot, as AJ talked about — **the travel for UCLA going to Minnesota. The computer doesn't care about the spots.**"

---

# ⭐ AJ'S BEST BETS

## 1\. "The square ball play of the year": Texas State at Oregon State — **OVER 71**

> **"These are two just decimated defenses. Neither one of them cares anymore."**

**The case:**

- **Oregon State was talked about a couple of weeks ago as a potential playoff team. They're not making it.** "The best thing they have going for them right now is that their receiver may backdoor his way into a Biletnikoff — **with Jeremiah Smith losing his quarterback and Malachi Toney getting hurt, he may be the best wide receiver in the country.**"
- **"The overs have been pretty much gold in these Oregon State games anyway."**
- **"And you saw what Texas State did last week to Boise. They don't stop fighting. They're going to keep scoring."**
- **The coaching motivation:** Texas State's **GJ Kinne** is having his name kicked around for the Baylor job. "**So he's trying to put some good film on.**"

*Evan flagged this same game yesterday from the live-betting side — the line was 66 earlier in the week and is now 71 to 73\. Two contributors on the same game from two different angles.*

## 2\. ⭐ Air Force +3 at Army 

> **"Army's defense is just done for. They're not very good to begin with, and especially not good against the run. Air Force — I thought they were dead on the vine when their quarterback got injured. Their backup's been just as good. I think Air Force is probably the wrong team favored here."**

**And the stakes:** Air Force has already knocked off Navy. "**I think they win the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy this year. And unfortunately I'm going to Army-Navy in New York later this year — I'm disappointed it's not going to be for anything, because I think Air Force seals up the trophy on Saturday.**"

### ⭐ Fezzik's counter-play on the same game: UNDER 45

> ⭐ **"Service academy unders. If the Coast Guard is playing Navy, I like the under. Because even if you've got a sucky rush defense — you know how to stop the option. You've seen it in practice every day."**

---

## 📅 Coming Up

**Tomorrow:** **Dan and Macken Survive the NFL**, the Saturday newsletter, and **Jake Novakovich's** college football free bets.

**The Bettor Day Football Show** streams live Thursdays at 2 p.m. Eastern — YouTube at **Bettor Day**, X at **@Bettor\_Day**, and on this podcast feed after.

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**We just designed new t-shirts** — including quotes from Fezzik, AJ and Scott — with more coming based on suggestions from the Bettor Day community chat. **Take 20% off with promo code FALL** at [https://bettorday.myshopify.com](https://bettorday.myshopify.com/?ref=bettorday.com)

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