NFL Week 10 and College Football Week 11

Scott Seidenberg recaps the Commanders win over the Giants on Thursday Night Football and we hear from the Bettor Day Football Show on some NFL Week 10 games and College Football System Plays

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🏈 COMMANDERS 24, GIANTS 21

Washington is 3-5-1. The Giants fall to 5-3-1 — and remember, the tie is between these two teams, so the NFC East could come down to secondary tiebreakers.

⭐ The play that actually decided it came with 5 seconds left in the half

Both offenses were useless early — anyone holding a no-touchdown prop felt good through the first quarter. Then Cam Skattebo got the Giants into the end zone in the second, and Jayden Daniels found Ben Sinnott on a one-yard touchdown with five seconds left before the break.

That's a 10-7 Washington halftime lead instead of what it very nearly was: 7-6 or 7-3 the other way.

We talk about the last two minutes of the second quarter constantly on this show, and usually in the context of the double dip — score at the end of the half, then get the ball to open the third. But the simpler version matters just as much: scoring right before the break changes the arithmetic of every decision that follows. 

How the Giants gave it back

Both of Jayden Daniels' interceptions were gifts. The Giants did nothing with either one.

Two takeaways, both free. A defense that hands you the ball twice in the fourth quarter has done its job; three-and-out, three-and-out is how a team loses a game it had won. And a 12-yard punt in a one-score game with two minutes to play is a swing of roughly 30 yards of field position — which is exactly the margin Washington needed.

🏈 NFL Week 10 Previews

🌡️ COLD WEATHER AND THE HOUSTON TEXANS

Texans at Browns, 44 degrees in Cleveland. Deshaun Watson is back under center despite Shedeur Sanders looking comfortable last week.

Fezzik's framing is the part to keep

"This is where the market gets things wrong. All 44 degrees is not the same. If you're playing in 44 degrees and you're from Houston and it's January, Houston's gotten used to some cold weather by then. But we're not even at Thanksgiving. I imagine the coldest day in Houston all year probably got down to 55."

That's the distinction that makes this a real angle rather than a vague one. It isn't "cold weather hurts warm weather teams." It's that in mid-November, a dome team from Houston has had no acclimation at all — and by January they will have. Same temperature, completely different situation.

⭐ And the numbers back it up

Houston in games under 50 degrees since CJ Stroud became the starter:

AJ's addition is what turns it into a bet: this Texans team cannot run the ball at all. So in a cold-weather game where Stroud historically averages 194 yards, they have no fallback — they have to throw it to score, and that's the thing that gets harder.

The two clearest data points: at New England last January they lost 28-16. But at Pittsburgh on a Monday night that same month, they dominated 30-6. It isn't automatic.

AJ's verdict: the Browns. The Cleveland defense has been solid all year, Watson was playing well before he left, and the market is overrating a Houston team everyone has decided just figured things out. "You're buying low and selling high on Cleveland here."

One more thing: the Texans' margin for error is gone. If they lose this, they're done.

⭐⭐ FEZZIK'S NO-VIG LESSON: WHY TWO POINTS CHANGES EVERYTHING

Panthers at Saints, New Orleans −2.5. Fezzik bet the Saints himself at +1.5 and gave his clients pick'em on a three-star. At −2.5 he now thinks the number is roughly correct — and he'd look to tease Carolina.

Anticipating the obvious objection — how can a couple of points matter that much? — he showed the work:

Then the analogy that makes it click:

"If I could play −110 on a game that closes at −127 on a vig-less basis, I have 17 cents the best of it. But that doesn't mean I like it NOW. If the Blue Jays were −110, and then they bet it up and it closed −127 — I would never bet the Blue Jays at that point. So why would I do it here in football?"

This is the single most useful idea on the show. The bet he made and the bet available today are not the same bet, even though they're on the same team in the same game. A price you already beat does not retroactively make the current price good — and the way to check is to take the vig out and ask what the market is actually saying now. His answer: it's saying −128, and that's fair, so he's done buying.

Chiefs −3 at Falcons — no play, but nobody likes Kansas City

Fezzik's rule stands: fade every team coming back from Europe, so he'd look toward the Chiefs. (He's also kicking himself — the total got as low as 45 in a dome and is now 47.)

AJ can't get there. Mahomes has the lowest aDOT in the league, is unwilling to throw downfield, and is now dealing with a compromised arm. And the receiver depth has turned him into a good quarterback rather than a world-beating one.

⭐ AJ's stat of the week: "I talk all the time about how bad Bo Nix is and how I have no idea how the Broncos win games. Well — the Chiefs have scored four points more than the Denver Broncos."

Neither of them can back Atlanta either, because of the Europe return. So this one's a pass with a warning attached.

Jaguars −10.5 at Titans — AJ passes on principle

Jacksonville just covered a double-digit road number on a Thursday — though Fezzik's view is that "Baltimore threw that game, so it doesn't count." The real argument for the Jaguars is the injury differential: Jacksonville is very healthy, Tennessee is extremely banged up.

AJ won't lay it: the Titans have only lost by double digits twice all year, they hung with the Bengals last week, and his default is firm — "over ten for a home division dog, it's hard for me to have any appetite for the other way."

🚩 Dolphins +3.5 at Colts — HOUSE SPLIT, and it's a big one

Scott had the same complaint Bearman did Wednesday: how do you lay more than a field goal with a Colts team starting fourth-stringers at receiver?

Fezzik's answer: the number is right. He made it 3 on a neutral field, which means he makes it 4. And he pushed back on the framing — Miami's season win total was 4.5 and people mocked the oddsmakers for setting it that high. They have no players, and their one good running back isn't playing anymore. His play is the under: Jonathan Taylor gets a lot of carries, Indy can run the ball, and Miami scored nine points in a home-run spot against Detroit.

AJ is blunter: even after the selloff, "they still have an NFL quarterback and an NFL running back. The Dolphins don't have that. I've said all year the Dolphins are a UFL team." On the quarterback change: "The idea that Kyle McCord is going to start an NFL game is laughable to me." His verdict — "a stay away and get it off my television type game."

⚠️ For anyone following the whole network: Bearman has Dolphins +3.5 as one of his plays this week, and he wrote it up before the Colts gutted the roster. Fezzik and AJ are both off it. Three of our guys, two sides.

Bills at Jets — AJ is staying away from both Buffalo games

"The numbers are about where I make it. This feels like a take-a-breath spot for the Bills — they've got this game and the Dolphins back to back, and I assume one of those two is going to be closer than it should be. So I'll probably stay away from both."

⭐ Rams −9.5 at Cardinals — AJ likes the under, and has a prop angle

The receiving corps is gutted: no Puka Nacua, no Davante Adams. And AJ's concern about the quarterback is real: "Stafford is clearly banged up. Something's going on with his arm — the zip on that ball is not what we've seen historically."

On the other side, Carson Beck also has no receivers. So: "It's going to be a lot of tight ends on the field."

⭐ The prop: "You can probably safely play Blake Corum and Kyren Williams rush attempt totals higher. It's going to be a heavy dose of those guys, because there really aren't any other options."

His verdict: "I'm not looking to lay 9.5 with a team that's going to be one-dimensional offensively, and the Cardinals' run defense is not horrendous. I like the under best. If I had to play a side, it would be Arizona."

49ers −3.5 at Cowboys — AJ thinks Dallas hangs around

Keenan Allen arrives in a receiver room missing Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel, with Deebo's status still open. AJ isn't impressed: "Bringing in Keenan Allen to replace Mike Evans isn't going to be some big revival."

His case for Dallas: the results have been frustrating — they let the Colts back into a game they should have controlled, and let Arizona come back and win one — but the defense is a little better than it was. He wants George Pickens' status, which "would go a long way." And the broader point: "The 49ers aren't going to go 16-1. They've got to run out of gas at some point."

Worth noting: Fiddle took Cowboys +4.5 on Tuesday. Two of ours on the same side here.

🏈 COLLEGE FOOTBALL SATURDAY

⭐⭐ TWO SYSTEM PLAYS

A reminder of the System: two ranked teams, and the inferior-ranked team is favored over the superior-ranked team. As Scott put it, simple enough that a sharp third-grader could run it. s/o Fezz

Oklahoma State: ⭐ AJ wants the MONEYLINE, not the spread

Fezzik can't make sense of the opponent: "Texas Tech sucked to start the year, then it looked like they were turning around, and now they appear to suck again."

AJ: "They're dreadful on the road. I don't want to play 3.5. I'd play an Oklahoma State moneyline, though — because there's a lot of variance in what's likely to be a very high-scoring game. I think Oklahoma State wins. Don't trust Texas Tech at all."

That's a smart adjustment to flag: if you expect a shootout, the spread carries variance you don't need. The moneyline just asks who wins.

LSU–Texas: ⭐ AJ'S BEST BET IS THE UNDER 46.5

First, the honest accounting on last week. Scott laid the points with LSU against Alabama and lost — but the box score is a textbook phony finish:

457 yards and 13 points. The drives were there; the finishing wasn't.

And that's precisely what AJ built his best bet on:

⭐ "The problem is when they get in the red zone they're struggling to finish. And if you struggle to finish in the red zone against Alabama, you're going to have real trouble against Texas — because Texas is ELITE when opponents get into the red zone. When you give Texas less space to defend, they dominate."

And he doesn't trust the other side either: "LSU forces long third downs, which means there's no easy dink-and-dunk option for Arch — and when that's not available, their offense sputters."

Two offenses that can move the ball and can't finish. Under 46.5 is his best bet of the show.

On the side: Fezzik makes it LSU −3 with a total of 47, so the spread is an easy pass for him — though his gut likes an excited LSU team that's in the playoff if it runs the table. And the primetime record is the trap: since 2021, LSU at home with a 7 p.m. or later kickoff is 23-3 straight up but only 13-13 ATS. They win in Death Valley at night; the market knows.

⭐⭐ #2 UTAH −2.5 AT #23 ARIZONA — BOTH CO-HOSTS LIKE ARIZONA

AJ: "This was the first game I texted you about this week." His case is the spot: emotional letdown after the Holy War, then cross-conference travel to Tucson. "Arizona's good — at least Big 12 good. Give me Arizona to hang around. I think they may even get the upset win."

Fezzik agrees, and his read on Utah is harsher: they "played a dreadfully bad game and got a phony win at the end" against BYU. "They would be sad if they'd lost that game — but because they won it, now they're playing for everything. And who are the Utes to be laying points on the road?"

⭐ And Scott's database pull is the strongest research of the week

Utah in the game immediately following the Holy War:

Read the road row again: 1-4 straight up and 1-4 against the spread. That's a small sample, but it's pointed in exactly the direction the spot analysis suggests — and the broader post-Holy-War record is a coin flip at best, with a losing ATS mark over twenty years.

⭐ #18 USC AT #9 INDIANA — AJ LIKES USC A LOT

His argument is that the market hasn't updated: "I think the market is still acting like Indiana is Indiana from last year, and nothing about this year's results says it's the same team. They are not blowing teams out. They're eking past middling teams — they eked past Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska and Northwestern."

⭐ "Who are they beating by double digits? Who are they beating of note by more than a touchdown? It just hasn't happened this season."

So he'll take USC catching more than a touchdown, even though he normally avoids backing USC on the road in Big Ten games.

Fezzik's objection is worth printing because it's the reason the number is where it is: "You're violating basic strategy. USC, when they go east and when they go north, they can't play a lick. Unless they're playing Nebraska or someone else who can't play a lick, I can't do it."

AJ's rebuttal: they already won at Penn State this year — which was supposed to be the thing they'd never do. (With the fair caveat that Penn State may just stink.)

Georgia −15.5 vs. #22 Missouri — not on upset alert

AJ: "I don't want to say Missouri's a bad team — I think they're maybe a little overrated. They've not been good at finishing drives and they've not been good at running the ball. And if you can't match physicality with Georgia, you're going to have trouble. I think Georgia has a chance to blow the doors off."

And the historical answer to the upset question: since 2016, teams in their first game as the new No. 1 are 18-2 straight up and 15-5 ATS. The only two losses are Georgia to Auburn this season and Alabama to Vanderbilt in 2024. Georgia already used theirs.

📊 THREE MODEL PLAYS

1. Nebraska over Rutgers — the biggest edge in the model

Rutgers' best player, receiver KJ Duff, is done for the season — and without him last week they managed 10 points against Wisconsin. Nebraska, meanwhile, fired their offensive coordinator after two bad weeks, because something had to change.

AJ's adjustment: take the Rutgers team total under instead of laying the number. "Now that it's over two touchdowns I'm not looking to lay the wood. But this Rutgers team is really awful, and Nebraska is better than their record looks."

Fezzik's context on the Wisconsin game: "Wisconsin's better than Nebraska, and Rutgers was hanging around that whole game — then Wisconsin opened it up and you blinked and they went from up seven to up 21 for a final score. A phony cover late."

⭐ And his stat on the host: "Welcome to the Big Ten, Nebraska. They're something like 1-9 against Minnesota and Iowa and Wisconsin — all their regional rivals. They've lost ninety percent of their games to frankly mediocre teams."

2. Virginia Tech −14.5 over Stanford — the model makes it 18

Stanford travels cross-country for a primetime game. AJ leans Virginia Tech: this is a small game, Franklin caught a lot of grief after the Cal loss, and "normally James has a couple of games where he just puts a beating on bad football teams." The caveat: he hasn't had a blowout win in ACC play yet, so you're asking for something that hasn't happened — but Stanford is pretty bad and probably ripe for the picking.

3. Liberty −21 over Middle Tennessee — AJ passes

Liberty is 8-1. AJ's numbers made it Liberty "just barely — not enough of an edge that I'm looking to get into it."

📅 Coming Up

The College Football FREE PLAY article posts later today. Tomorrow: the weekend newsletter and a new episode of Dan and Macken Survive the NFL.

The Bettor Day Football Show is live every Thursday at 2 p.m. Eastern / 11 a.m. Pacific on YouTube at Bettor Day and X at @Bettor_Day 

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Live on BettorDay.com and in the BettorDay mobile app — matchup analysis for college football, market analysis for the NFL. You can see exactly where the money has been going on Kalshi and track the movement right up to kickoff.

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