Week 3 Card: Three Games, Four Plays, Strongest First
(4-2 last week — 8-5 YTD) Week 2 Free Plays went 4-2, including the Louisiana Tech split — the dog cashed at +35.5, the under lost when LSU-La Tech landed on 59.
Three games this week and four plays. Let's get into it.
1. Michigan State at Notre Dame
7:30 p.m. ET · Notre Dame Stadium · (Notre Dame −29.5)
Under 52.5 -115, Fanduel & Michigan State team total UNDER 10.5 -128, Fanduel
Picture South Bend at 7:30 on Saturday night. The forecast calls for rain most of the day, three-quarters of an inch to an inch of it, with more storms once the game kicks off. That's the stage Michigan State walks onto, and it's about the worst one it could draw.
The Spartans have scored 30 and 35, but both came at home against Toledo and Eastern Michigan. Now they face a Notre Dame defense that has allowed 13 points all season — Wisconsin managed 284 yards against it, Rice managed 128.
In the rain, I expect both teams to do the same thing: hand it off. Michigan State already leans that way (258 rushing yards against Eastern Michigan), and Notre Dame has no reason to throw with a lead on a wet night. Every run keeps the clock moving, and every minute off the clock is a possession neither offense gets back. The wind is calm, so this isn't a classic weather game — the rain just tilts everything toward the ground.
That's the story of the Team Total, and that's the play I like. Getting to 11 means Michigan State strings together two real drives on a wet field against this defense. I don't think it gets there.
History: from 2023 through last season, Notre Dame was a favorite of 21 or more 17 times under Marcus Freeman and held 11 of those opponents to 10 points or fewer — 10 of 14 at home.
The risk: the same history block that makes the team total also guts the full-game under. Freeman's Irish averaged about 44 points in those 17 spots, and the totals went over 11 times against six unders. Notre Dame has already hung 41 and 52.
2. SMU at Louisville
3:30 p.m. ET · L&N Stadium · (Louisville −1.5)
Over 58.5 -108, BetMGM
Start with Louisville. Its two games have produced 79 and 72 total points. It scored 38 on Ole Miss and piled up 635 yards on Villanova.
SMU's story is better than its scores. The Mustangs went to Tallahassee and gained 585 yards, and left with 27 points because they turned it over four times. Clean that up and it's a much bigger number. Their defense is shorthanded too — all-conference safety Ahmaad Moses still hasn't been cleared after offseason spinal surgery. Forecast is low 90s with no wind. Nothing stands in the way of either offense.
History: Louisville games under Jeff Brohm have gone over 25 times against 17 unders since 2023. The two meetings since SMU joined the ACC split: 61 points in Louisville in 2024 against a 55.5 total, then 44 at SMU last November against 50.5.
The risk: the numbers don't back me up, and I'd rather say it than bury it. SMU's games went under nine times in 13 last season. The last meeting was a 38-6 SMU rout — though Louisville played that one without Miller Moss and both Brown backs.
And be precise about the line move. I wrote on Tuesday that this total opened at 56.5 back on August 6 and had climbed to 59.5. It's 58.5 now. So it isn't a number falling toward me; it's a number that ran up three points and gave one back. I'm still buying it, but I'm buying a total two points above where it started, not a discount.
This is a read on two offenses I trust. That's all it is, and I trust them.
3. LSU at Ole Miss
7:30 p.m. ET · ABC · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · (LSU −3)
Under 58.5 -108, Caesars
Lane Kiffin walks back into Oxford on Saturday night, this time on the other sideline. It's the most emotional game on the board, and I think the total reflects the storyline more than the football.
Look at who's waiting for him. Pete Golding built the Ole Miss defense before taking over as head coach, and since he arrived in 2023, Ole Miss home games have gone under 16 times in 24 games. On the other side, LSU's defense has been the best unit either team has put on the field: 10 points and 145 yards allowed to Clemson, then 14 and 139 to Louisiana Tech.
Then there's Kiffin himself. Since 2020 his games against ranked teams have gone under 11 times and over 8 times, and this rivalry has started slowly lately — the last two meetings were scoreless and 7-3 after the first quarter. With this much riding on it, I expect these teams to feel each other out rather than trade haymakers early.
History: the last two meetings stayed well under. Baton Rouge in 2024 produced 46 through regulation (55 with overtime) against a 64.5 total, and Oxford last year went 43 against this exact same 58.5. The 2023 game in Oxford went 55-49, so the series can absolutely break the other way.
The risk: tempo. Both teams play fast, LSU is playing much faster under Kiffin than it did a year ago, and both offenses have scored at least 41 in every game this season. If the first quarter turns into a shootout, this gets uncomfortable in a hurry.
I think the defenses decide this one, not the storyline.
Lines are US-book consensus at time of writing and will move. Shop for your number. Check out our FREE ODDS PAGE
Jake Novakovich is a contributor to Bettor Day. You can follow him on X @CashOnSaturdays. Lines move: re-check before you play.
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