> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bettorday.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # College Football Week 10 & NFL Survivor Week 9 - URL: https://www.bettorday.com/college-football-week-10-nfl-survivor-week-9/ - Published: 2026-11-07T11:00:00.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-07T11:00:01.000Z - Author: Scott Seidenberg - Tags: Newsletter ## College Football Saturday Week 10 Free Plays / Breakdowns & NFL Survivor Week 9 Strategy *It's arguably the best College Football slate of the season. After the initial CFB Playoff Rankings were released on Tuesday, so much can change with all the Top 25 and Top 10 matchups today. All week we have broken down the games on Bettor Day, and here are some plays.* *Plus, QB chaos around the NFL makes this a very intriguing week in Survivor. Who did Mackenzie Rivers and Dan Rivera choose to stay alive with their lone remaining entry?* --- # 🏈 COLLEGE FOOTBALL FREE PLAYS **Jake Novakovich Free Plays (0-2 last week β€” 25-14-1 YTD +9.2 Units)** [***READ JAKES FULL FREE PLAY ARTICLE HERE***](https://www.bettorday.com/college-football-free-plays-11-7/) ## Oregon at Ohio State **3:30 p.m. ET Β· Ohio Stadium** > **Ohio State βˆ’7.5** \-105, Caesars & **LEAN: Under 46.5** This is a bet on an overreaction, and I laid the number out in Tuesday's column: DraftKings had Ohio State βˆ’14 from last Wednesday through Saturday morning, and it's βˆ’7.5 today. Seven points off for one Saturday. **Here's the detail that makes this a play rather than a hunch.** That βˆ’14 was already up *with Julian Sayin out.* The book knew about the quarterback when it set the number. So the seven points that came off aren't about an injury the market was late to β€” they're about one result, a 30-18 loss at USC. There's nothing new in that cut except the scoreboard. And one result is exactly the input the books have been over-reading all season. By my own count, cutting a favorite after a loss is now **0-for-4**: Kansas State won by 11, Texas by 7, Oregon by 8, Texas Tech by 8\. Every one of those teams beat the reduced number comfortably. This is the fifth instance, and it's the largest cut of the five. Look at what the loss actually was. True freshman Luke Fahey made his first career start on the road, and Ohio State still outgained USC 464-338, ran 81 plays to 50, and held the ball 39:28 to 20:32\. They settled for four field goals. Oregon, meanwhile, got outgained at home by Northwestern. Now Fahey gets his second start at home, where Ohio State has won all four games by at least 23, and Oregon flies 2,054 miles into the Horseshoe in a letdown spot. **On The Under Lean:** Ohio State under Ryan Day as a favorite with a total between 45 and 49.5 is 14 unders to 3 overs, and both of this season's went under. --- ## Oklahoma at Florida **7:45 p.m. ET Β· Ben Hill Griffin Stadium** > **Florida team total UNDER 25.5** \-105, BetMGM Florida just isn't that good this year, despite the wins over Texas and Ole Miss. The scoring since September: 17 at Missouri, 19 at home against South Carolina, 27 at Texas, 8 against Georgia β€” on 319 yards a game. Jon Sumrall benched Aaron Philo against Georgia, and this week's depth chart lists both him and Tramell Jones Jr. as the starter. Sumrall says the quarterback isn't the only problem, and pointed at the offensive line: "I don't know if Tom Brady was our quarterback on Saturday if it would have helped us." Now right tackle Emeka Ugorji, who has started all eight games, is out. Leading receiver Bailey Stockton is questionable, and Vernell Brown III has missed four straight and is doubtful. That offense now gets a good Oklahoma defense. The Sooners allow 20.8 points and 305 yards a game, six of their eight opponents have finished under this number, and cornerback Eli Bowen was upgraded to probable after missing the last four games. **History:** Florida has averaged 17.75 points over its last four. Oklahoma held Michigan to 17, Texas to 24 and Kentucky to 21. --- ## ***More Free Plays from the Bettor Day Football Show. Watch this week's episode*** [***HERE***](https://www.bettorday.com/the-bettor-day-football-show-is-live-2/) ## ## BYU at UTAH **12:00 p.m. ET Β· Rice-Eccles Stadium** > **Under 49.5** **Scott:** "That win last week was such a statement β€” **to go on the road in a letdown-slash-look-ahead spot and absolutely dominate.** I think Utah wins at home. **But do they cover 4.5?**" **AJ: total pass.** "I wish I had something on this game. **I expected Utah to try to maximize the home field advantage β€” but a 10 in the morning kickoff just doesn't feel like it'll have quite the gravitas it would at night.** I've been looking for a way to fade both these teams and nothing jumps out. **I think Utah might have a hard time tackling. In general this feels like the number's about right.**" **Fezzik takes the dog:** "**The dog is a bet. The altitude is a non-factor. You've got two pretty equal teams. I think it gets decided by a field goal.**" ### πŸ“Š And the total: Holy War means under **Scott's database pull:** **In the last sixteen Utah–BYU meetings, the under is 10-6.** **All three lean under. Fezzik made it 48** β€” and **the under is his second best bet of the week:** "**a Holy War that should be very sleepy early in the day.**" --- ## Texas at Missouri **12:00 p.m. ET Β· Memorial Stadium** > **Under 42.5** **AJ Hoffman:** > ⭐ **"Both teams are going to have a hard time running the football. And if Texas has a hard time running, the game becomes very dicey and the scoring drops drastically. They're going to be counting on their quarterbacks β€” and neither team wants to take big chances with their quarterbacks. They're both pretty solid on defense, Texas elite on defense. I don't think there are any advantages for the offenses in this game. Give me the under."** **Hollywood Smothers is done for the season*, which is bad news for the Texas running game AJ was already betting against.* --- ## Georgia at Ole Miss **7:30 p.m. ET Β· Vaught-Hemingway Stadium** > **Georgia -3.5** **AJ Hoffman:** "**I like Georgia. I think Lacy being out makes Ole Miss one-dimensional** β€” they're going to be throwing the ball a lot, counting on explosive plays, which they might get, because they've got a great quarterback. **But without Lacy to control the clock, which is what Ole Miss loves to do, they're going to have a hard time keeping the Dawgs off the field.**" --- # ⭐THE NOTRE DAME BEST BET⭐ **Notre Dame is now βˆ’7.5 over Miami. Scott and AJ both played it at βˆ’5.5** β€” Scott's best bet, AJ's best bet, **and a consensus play sent to BettorDay Premium subscribers on Tuesday.** **Scott laid out the committee argument again β€” the rankings told Notre Dame they can't lose, so this is a pissed-off, motivated, spiteful team in a must-win. Then Fezzik went to work.** ### Fezzik on the Number > ⭐ **"Notre Dame's going to win by seven. And I'm going to say there's no way this belongs in your top plays. I want you to delete it. Turn around and say you're not going to lay 7.5\. If it was that easy β€” if you could smoke dope, sit back forty-eight hours, and then come on a podcast β€” it's up to minus ten, well why not, we'll just lay ten. It's too late. Think about this. Is Miami a top five team? Yes. Are we going to make money laying 7.5 in a good spot against a top five team? No. Therefore we pass."** **AJ folded immediately, and said the quiet part:** > ⭐ **"Fezzik's right. I've got no interest in this at 7.5 either. It boils down to: did you get the early number?** **AJ's position now:** "This was my first play of the week. I knew I was going to play it at anything under a touchdown. **But at 7.5 I'm actually tempted to take a little bit back and play some Miami β€” and see if I can pull a Fez and hit both sides of it.**" *If you have the BettorDay mobile app, *turn your push notifications on*!* --- ## NFL SURVIVOR WEEK 9 ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/10/Survivor-Cover-1.png) **Dan Rivera and Makenzie Rivers are down to 1 entry in NFL Survivor. Listen to this week's episode of Dan & Macken Survive the NFL to find out where they are risking their contest lives.* [****LISTEN TO THE LATEST EPISODE HERE**](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/episodes/dan-macken-survive-the-nfl-week-9/?ref=bettorday.com) ## πŸͺ€ THE PROBLEM THIS WEEK: THEY'RE OUT OF GOOD TEAMS > ⭐ **"For the first time all year, we are really actually kind of hamstrung by the teams we've picked. The teams we would really want to side with to survive this maelstrom are often not available."** | Already used β€” and unavailable | | | ------------------------------ | -------------------------- | | **49ers** | **Lions** | | **Chiefs** (vs. the Jets) | **Seahawks** (vs. Arizona) | **Mac:** "As we get later into the season, **you've got to pick twenty teams in a survivor league. We've picked most of the good ones.**" **Dan:** "I was doing a quick look. **It is brutal.**" --- ## 🏈 THE BOARD ### ⭐ Texans βˆ’6 at Chargers β€” **THE OFFICIAL PICK** **Dan: "It's a pretty gross pick, but I'm more inclined to use them this week. There's not a lot of outs for this team."**The remaining ones are Week 14 at Washington, Week 16 at Philadelphia and Week 18 hosting Tennessee β€” *"a bold assumption that they're going to care about that game."* Jalen Pitre should be back to help the secondary. **The line opened 4.5 and sharp money moved it to 6** β€” "that sounds about right. Texans by seven-ish." **And Dan's honest re-examination of his own pick:** "**Maybe we β€” the market, the NFL, the talking heads, the media in general β€” just jumped the gun on the Texans.** They played a bad Titans team. They went to London and had a nice win over Jacksonville, a toss-up game they came out of alive. Then they came home and did not look good against the Giants. **Maybe the Giants just got them in the right spot β€” the defense kept them in that game, the offense was the issue. Maybe the Texans are not a good team, and maybe we should just use them now and rip the band-aid off.**" ### πŸ“Š THE CHARGERS ARE CHASING A RECORD OF INCOMPETENCE | | | | ----------------------- | ------------------------------------- | | **Chargers ATS record** | **0-6-1** | | **On pace for** | **a 0% cover rate β€” never been done** | | **Worst ever** | **2-15, the 2024 Titans** | **Mac:** "**I feel like they've got to get one.** I thought it might be against the Rams, against the Bills in Week 3, against the Seahawks. I don't think we look up and see them 0-17\. **But if you look at them against the Dolphins or the Jets or any of these other terrible teams β€” they're not as good as them. Even as talented as they are, they haven't been putting up performances.**" **Dan on the quarterback:** "**Justin Herbert just throws interceptions right to defenders. I don't know what's going through this dude's head.** The offensive line doesn't matter, the weapons don't matter. The defense has been solid enough to keep them in games, **but when your offense is that incompetent, I don't think it matters anymore.**" **Mac's hesitation, and why he got past it:** "When I look at that ATS record I think they're going to cover one of these. That made me not want to pick the Texans. **But they could cover and still not win. They could lose 30-27, 27-24\. I can see that here.**" --- ### ⭐ Bears βˆ’6.5 vs. Buccaneers (SNF) β€” **maybe pile** **The first week Chicago is usable** β€” and they go on a bye next week, then host the Saints in Week 11\. **Dan's worry is the price:** "I'm a little concerned we're getting **peak Chicago** right now, riding high, deservedly so. They went to Seattle and were the better team start to finish β€” **but they had quite a bit of time to prepare. Now, not as much time for Tampa Bay.**" **His own counter-argument:** "**Maybe Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson are borderline matchup-proof.** Seattle looked out of sorts, and it looked like Caleb Williams could do largely no wrong. **So the counter to not buying at the peak is: we don't have a peak with this team. Or maybe they're just that good and it doesn't matter.**" **Mac's boom-or-bust chart:** 59 points at Carolina and 35 at Seattle β€” against **7 points versus the Packers and 3 versus the Vikings.** "Boom or bust, **but it's been more boom recently.**" And he won't dismiss Tampa: "**The Bucs have been a little worse than their record. They're 3-5, but they've lost a lot of close games with bad turnover margin. I don't think they're that terrible.**" **Dan's preference is to wait:** "**I will gladly take Ben Johnson with extra time in Week 11** β€” and I doubt the Saints defense is actually fixed by then." *(On weather: "Are there really weather issues mid-November? I don't think so. December is a real consideration.")* --- ### ⭐ Broncos βˆ’3 at Panthers β€” **THE SHARP ALTERNATIVE** **Dan:** "**This Panthers team is bad. They do nothing well. Their defense is hurt, their offensive line is banged up, and Bryce Young still isn't good despite a nice first two weeks β€” he came back down to earth.** The Broncos are mostly healthy." **And he's picking them while actively disliking them:** "**I do not like Bo Nix.** For some odd reason I don't know what this team does β€” **they cannot compete in the first half, and then all of a sudden in the second half the offense gets going. I don't know how to explain it. I just observe it at this point.** So hypothetically, if they're down 10-3 in the first half, **I still wouldn't mind the Broncos there.**" > ⭐ **Mac's explanation β€” the best idea in the episode: "You want to say the coach is the reason, if the quarterback isn't. But think of all the great play designers β€” they're all great play callers, and they're generally FIRST HALF guys. They're guys who can find a weakness in the defense during the week. Sean Payton is different. And maybe that's because he's twenty years in the league and not five β€” he has an ability to find answers at the END of the game that other coaches don't come up with."** --- ### 🚩 Rams βˆ’5.5 at Commanders β€” **DAN'S BUYER BEWARE** "**I'm concerned about this Rams team.** Myles Garrett is back but I don't think we're getting the Myles Garrett it sounds like. **I don't know who's playing for the Rams defense this week β€” they have a long list of key guys at key positions.** The Commanders aren't a very good team, and the Rams have a coaching mismatch β€” **but I feel like this is another game where the Rams maybe don't take it seriously. When I think of the Rams, I think of that Cardinals game where they were just screwing around all game.**" **And the win he refuses to credit:** "**They beat the Chargers last week, but it's the Chargers, so that literally tells me nothing about your team. It just tells me the Chargers are that bad.**" **Mac's case that Washington is being underrated:** with Jayden Daniels back a couple of weeks, "**they put 33 points on Seattle at home β€” I don't know if anyone else has done that. They tied the Giants, a phony final, but they covered and had a chance to win. They had the ball in the end zone with a chance to beat the 49ers. And they dominated the Eagles last week. I just don't think they're a bad team β€” and I'm not sure the Rams are a good team.**" > **Mac on the Rams' 52% playoff odds: "So much of that, even still in Week 9, is PRIORS β€” saying we thought this team was going to be this good, their offense was this good last year, their defense was this good last year, and they added all these pieces that haven't come together. I'd like to see them put it together."** \*The Rams were semi-saved for Thanksgiving, but \* *"they're maybe not as good as the Packers at this point, as the Packers have gotten better β€” so maybe that Thanksgiving Wednesday game isn't as attractive."* They have a bye before it, and **Rams at Arizona next week may be the better spot.** --- ### Cowboys βˆ’5.5 at Colts β€” **saving them for Thanksgiving** **Dan:** "You have Daniel Jones, who can't move the ball, against the Cowboys defense, which can't stop anybody. **I still think the Cowboys are a good pick this week β€” they were higher up on my list β€” but we want Thanksgiving, so we can kick the can.**" **The threshold callback:** "We said a few weeks ago that **if the Cowboys can't put up 35, they're pretty much a no-go.**This seems like a spot where **maybe Dallas puts up 28 and the defense gives up 23 β€” which is very good for that defense.**" *(Mac's note: *28-23 is the exact score the market projects* β€” those are the two team totals.)* **Dan's usage worry about the Colts:** "**Last week they weren't giving Jonathan Taylor many touches** β€” I thought he was getting traded. They were putting their RB2 in. And Josh Downs, I don't know if he'll be on the team. **Are we even sure those guys play much in this game? They'll probably play the first quarter or half, but if you're down by a lot, I'm not sure they're out there after that.**" *(And on the trade: "I think they're trying to drive up the cost. The rumors are all from those Twitter accounts posting clickbait. *I'll believe it when I see it.*")* ### ⭐ And the reason to be wary of Dallas at home at all > ⭐ **Mac: "Since they moved into AT&T Stadium they have not been a great home team β€” one of the worst home field advantages in that new stadium. Maybe it's the glitz and glamour. I've had the MSG theory forever: it's such a circled-on-the-calendar event for all the road teams β€” we're going to MSG, we're going to Jerry's World, the eyes of the world will be on us β€” that they tend to show up and show out."** **And Mac quoted this show back at us:** "**As Scott Seidenberg said the last time we did a show together: how could you take your well-earned Week 9 survivor pick and put it on a team as bad and as sporadic as the Cowboys? They seem to find a way to lose games they shouldn't all year.**" --- ### 🚩 Bills at Vikings β€” **MAC'S BUYER BEWARE** **Dan is out, for a roster reason and a scheduling reason:** "**The Bills are missing at least two offensive linemen, possibly three.** And the Bills play the Jets next week β€” **I would not use them this week, because we don't have a lot of options for next week.** You can't be missing multiple offensive linemen against a blitz-happy defense. **And Josh Allen is always prone to those WTF games** β€” like the Chargers in Week 3, where they turned it over four or five times and should have lost." **Mac's version:** "They've caused some scares against better teams before. **They dominated the Packers in the second half. Minnesota could win that game, in my opinion.**" *And earlier, drier: "*If you're ballsy enough to go against a 6-1 team for your survivor pick, maybe you deserve to win it all.*"* --- ## πŸ“Š THE DATABASE PULL: ROAD FAVORITES OFF A BYE This is why the Texans pick survived the debate. > ⭐ **Mac: "The very best scenario off a bye is to be a road favorite β€” out of the four possibilities: home dog, home favorite, road favorite, road dog. Going back to 1990 in my database, road favorites have been the best way to come off a bye."** **And his explanation for why is genuinely good:** "You have the best combination of events. **You have enough time to rest, be with your family, recharge β€” but you know how you sleep too long sometimes and you're a little less than 100% when you finally get in gear? When you take a business trip to go DO something, that cancels it out. You're able to rally the troops and say: all right, we're going to LA, we're changing our season.** You have maximum intensity, **and you should win, because you're the favorite.**" **Mac's closing case:** "Off a bye, going on the road **to a team with no historical home field advantage.** And what they do well on paper β€” **get after the quarterback β€” works against a Chargers team with maybe the worst offensive line in the league.** And CJ Stroud has been pretty consistent." --- ## πŸ“Œ The Pick | | | | --------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------- | | **The pick** | **Houston Texans at the Chargers** | | **Sharp alternative** | **Broncos βˆ’3 at Carolina** | | **Buyer beware** | **Rams at Washington** (Dan) Β· **Bills at Minnesota** (Mac) | --- *As always, lines change, shop around. 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