College Football Saturday Week 7 & NFL Week 6 Survivor Picks

Another weekend of College Football and it's an incredible card. Multiple System plays and key top 10 matchups. Here are some Free Plays that were given out by our College Football writer Jake Novakovic as well as some breakdowns from the Bettor Day Football Show with AJ Hoffman.

Jake Novakovich Free Plays (1-4 last week — 19-11 YTD +6.6 Units) Last week was the worst of the year. And a lot of sharps I spoke to had similar tales. All that means is that this week is a bounce back week. So let's get after it.

Virginia at SMU

12:00 p.m. ET · Gerald J. Ford Stadium

SMU -9.5 -110, Fanatics

Virginia is banged up and it's catching them at the worst time. Cornerback Omillio Agard is out for the season with a torn ACL, and defensive tackle Jason Hammond is done for the year too. Receiver Rico Flores Jr. won't play. Safety Brandyn Hillman, linebacker Caleb Hardy and Corey Costner, who plays the SPUR spot in their secondary, are all listed as doubtful. That's a lot of a defense to be missing on the road.

The Cavaliers were already slipping before the injuries piled up. Two weeks ago they went to Florida State and lost 38-7 with 205 yards of offense. Last week they held off Syracuse 28-25 at home, and Syracuse outgained them 430 to 282.

SMU moves the ball. They've gone over 475 yards in four of five games, including 585 at Florida State and 479 at Louisville. Against a secondary missing this many bodies, I expect them to do it again.

History: SMU won 27-24 at Florida State. Virginia lost 38-7 at the same stadium two weeks ago. Syracuse outgained Virginia by 148 yards last week.

Washington State at Oregon State

6:00 p.m. ET · Reser Stadium

Oregon State −18 −110, BetMGM

Oregon State hasn't failed to cover all season. They're 6-0 against the spread, and the offense is rolling: 650 yards in a 56-26 win at Colorado State, then 651 in a 66-14 win over San Diego State last week. Freshman receiver Jesse Legree leads FBS with 932 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Even the two losses covered, at Houston and against Texas Tech.

Washington State can't move the ball. Against FBS teams they've scored 10, 7, 24, 6 and 16, and they were held under 260 yards in each of their last two. They're changing quarterbacks this week, with redshirt freshman Owen Eshelman getting the start.

History: Oregon State is 6-0 against the spread and scored 122 points in its last two games. Washington State is averaging 12.6 points a game against FBS opponents.

New Mexico at Hawai'i

10:30 p.m. ET · [TV] · Ching Complex

Under 44.5 −110, BetMGM

Hawai'i can't score. They're averaging 16.7 points a game, and their last three produced 10, 16 and 12. They average 6.3 points in the first half, with three first-half touchdowns on 35 first-half drives. They're last in FBS in rushing at 82.3 yards a game, and they've scored seven touchdowns on 20 red zone trips.

The weather helps. Honolulu calls for trade winds around 21 mph, sustained, through the whole game. I set my own threshold on this back in Week 1: fifteen sustained is where wind starts changing how a passing offense functions. Twenty-one clears it with room, and Hawai'i is a passing offense with nothing on the ground to fall back on.

New Mexico was held to 6 at Oklahoma, and Hawai'i's defense hasn't allowed more than 30 since the opener.

History: Hawai'i is 5-1 to the under this season, and four of its last five games finished under 44.5.

Speaking of that Hawaii game, New Mexico tops Scott's CFB Model as the most lopsided matchup. From the Bettor Day Football Show...

New Mexico −15.5 at Hawaii

Scott's metric flag, and it's a big one:

AJ Hoffman: "Hawaii's broken. That offense is in shambles — they are not competitive right now. They came to the mainland last week and put up a better showing than a lot of people thought against Arizona State, but statistically they were blown out. They just can't score. And if you can't score you're going to have a really hard time against New Mexico, because New Mexico is holding everybody down."

⭐ His play: "Hawaii might not score two touchdowns in this game. I'd play a Hawaii team total under. There's no way they're going to put anything up against this defense that New Mexico has taken a lot of pride in. They've got a great new head coach there. I love the Lobos in this spot."

🎰 TWO SYSTEM PLAYS

A refresher

The two losses: Alabama losing to Georgia, and Iowa scoring on the final play of the game against Michigan.

❌ #16 Mississippi State at #22 LSU — LSU −14.5

AJ Hoffman: "Normally I'm with you on these system plays, but there's no way I'm laying two touchdowns plus with LSU. It just doesn't make sense right now."

His case against LSU: "What they're hanging their hat on is beating a Texas A&M team at nighttime in a game that now it turns out A&M's no good either. Other than that, they beat Clemson. In the preseason those looked like two good wins. The only other teams they've played with a pulse handled them — they lost at Ole Miss and they lost at Kentucky. And I think Kentucky's pretty good."

His case for Mississippi State: "This is a team that has been surprising. I'm certainly not looking to fade a guy who's been maybe the best player in college football in Kamario Taylor, catching two touchdowns, when their only loss this season has been to Alabama. They got blown out by Alabama — but LSU is not Alabama. I don't think LSU is capable of doing what Alabama did to Mississippi State."

Verdict: "I'm not sure if I'm going to take Mississippi State, but there is no world where I'm laying these points with LSU."

✅ #18 Oklahoma State at #20 Houston — Houston −4.5

AJ stays with the system, with one reservation.

"I wanted to lay it with the Coogs, but they do have a pretty strong look-ahead — they're at Utah next week, probably the toughest game left on their schedule. That worries me a little."

On Oklahoma State: "Nothing against them, the run has been nice. But looking back now, beating West Virginia and Central Florida doesn't tell you a whole lot. The two data points that told us what we thought we knew early on were that Tulsa loss, which was horrendous, and the Oregon win. And that Oregon win has not aged the way they'd hoped — there's a world where maybe Oregon's just not very good at all."

"So you're probably paying a tax on Oklahoma State based on the results since that opening-week loss. I'm not interested in it. It would be Coogs or pass for me."

🛣️ TWO TOP-10 ROAD FAVORITES — AND THE DATABASE HATES THEM

#4 Ohio State at #5 Indiana — Buckeyes −3.5

⭐ AJ'S FAVORITE PLAY ON THE GAME: THE UNDER

AJ: "This was a 13-10 game in the Big Ten Championship last year — and that game featured the number one overall pick in the draft. These teams both play very slow. Neither one is going to want to make a mistake."

"With the tempo of these two teams, and what the offensive numbers have done when they've gone up against better competition — I think this is going to be a grimy, slow, ugly rock fight. Old school Big Ten."

And a side lean with a tell attached: "I'd like Indiana. Cignetti at home catching over three just seems crazy to me.And especially — he's been talking about how his team doesn't have a shot, they're no good. That to me spells like he knows something that we don't know."

AJ: "He does. And remember last year in that Big Ten Championship game — Jeremiah Smith had a phenomenal game, and there were still only 10 points on the board for them at the end of the day. They're going to game plan him out. I don't see a lot of Ohio State success passing the ball. I don't see a lot of Indiana success running the ball."

☘️ #2 Notre Dame at #8 BYU — Irish −10.5, 7:30 ET kickoff

🥤 THE BYU PRIMETIME HOME DOG DATABASE

And as a home underdog in primetime — it's only happened six times:

5-1 straight up.

SUPERCONTEST COLLEGE CARD WEEK 5

Follow the Bettor Day SuperContest Entry All Season!

NFL SURVIVOR WEEK 5

Entries remaining: 2 of 8 — the deepest Dan and Mac have ever gotten with two live tickets.

🦃 THE BIG NEWS: THANKSGIVING JUST OPENED UP

Jalen Hurts has a blood clot. He's out this week and may not be back by Thanksgiving.

That matters because of this Thanksgiving slate: Packers at Rams, Bears at Lions, Eagles at Cowboys, Chiefs at Bills, Broncos at Steelers.

Before the news, that week was "Rams or pass." Now the Cowboys are a second viable option — a Dallas defense that isn't getting better, but an Eagles team without Hurts, possibly without Saquon Barkley, with a Hall of Fame right tackle already retired and more trades maybe coming.

Mac: "If I knew for sure Hurts wasn't playing on Thanksgiving, that makes it a lot easier. Gun to my head, I'd want one of two entries on the Cowboys that week. That could be a seven-point line or greater."

🏈 THE BOARD, GAME BY GAME

⭐ Rams −13 vs. Cardinals — USED, Pool 1

Twice the line of anything else on the board. Arizona's offensive line can't block. Concern: McDuffie banged up and questionable, the Rams' left tackle is suspended, and McVay's in-game decisions can get conservative — get in, get out, keep Stafford healthy, don't chase margin. Dan sees a possible Vikings-Dolphins repeat: you win it, you just sweat it. Taken anyway.

⭐ 49ers −7.5 vs. Commanders (MNF) — OFFICIAL PICK, Pool 2

The total jumped from 49 to 52.5. Washington can stop the run but cannot stop the pass, so Kittle should eat. If Kittle, CMC and Purdy are all right, 35-40 is live. Diggs and McLaurin are both dealing with hamstrings. Purdy leads the league in QBR, completions over expected and EPA since he entered it. Plenty of outs later — Week 8 bye, then Raiders at home in Week 9. Both guys landed here.

Chiefs −7.5 at Chargers — not in either pool

Second-biggest favorite on the board, and Mac thinks they lose it somehow. The Chargers will talent their way into a couple of wins eventually — though maybe not against Andy Reid off a bye. Note the move: this would have been about a 3-point line in the preseason.

Colts −6.5 vs. Titans — maybe pile, leaning no

Dan wants nothing to do with it. The defense can't stop anybody, the offense is all Jonathan Taylor, Alec Pierce is still out and Tyler Warren popped up questionable. Tennessee's run defense looks okay but hasn't faced a real power run team. Dan can even see Cam Ward moving the ball against a weak Colts pass defense. Better out: the Dolphins in Week 10.

Patriots −7 vs. Jets — maybe pile

Drake Maye is 4th in QBR and swept the Jets last year. New York's defense is competent; the offense is not, and Christian Gonzalez plays, which takes Garrett Wilson away. Dan thinks we've got "old Geno Smith" back — the version that folds the second he sees pressure. The Jets' win last week was an ugly rainy slugfest the Browns lost more than New York won. Dan's projection: 24-16, 24-17, sweaty the whole way. Total 43.5. Better out: Week 8 at Miami, on extra rest.

Bears −1.5 at Falcons

Caleb Williams is on track to play and the line moved. Mac's caution: as we just saw with Darnold, the first game back off an injury often isn't a player's best. He floated teasing up the Falcons and then talked himself out of it — "the Bears score 50 points on a lot of people. I wouldn't tease against the Bears if I could help it."

Panthers −3.5 at Eagles

Total just 38.5. Dan liked Carolina as a sharp alternative before the Hurts news; now he's unsure. The NFC South is bad enough that the Panthers can drop 30-35 in those matchups later. The worry: no film on Tanner McKee — who wasn't even the second-stringer, since Andy Dalton was — which cuts both ways.

Bills −4.5 vs. Raiders

Mac liked it going in: no real Raiders home field, the Bills had the crowd in LA and will have it in Vegas, and they'll be more comfortable in the fourth quarter either way. Then he looked it up. See below.

🚩 TWO BUYER BEWARES

1. The Bills are in a genuinely terrible spot

Mac's database pull: teams coming off an overtime game, won on the road, with fewer than four days' rest: 5-23 ATS.Push it to five days and it's still only 39%.

Mac: "That is a very bad spot for the Bills for a lot of reasons — logistically playing overtime, having less than a week to prepare, and being out of your comfort zone for that week."

Dan: "I don't think they lose. I just think they might struggle and need to call in Josh Allen." He'd rather kick the can — Buffalo still has the Dolphins and Jets down the road. And a related note: Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford are Dan's two "if this team loses its QB, it's a no-go zone" quarterbacks.

2. Don't get cute with the Panthers

Mac: "A backup quarterback has been chomping at the bit. Whenever nothing's working on offense, the other players are thinking we can do a lot more than what we've shown. Now you almost get relief from that offense."

"And they're in Philly. How are they going to be three-and-a-half point dogs in Philly versus a team I don't think has been above .500 since Cam Newton?"

📌 The Picks

If you have one entry:

• No separate Thanksgiving pick in your pool → take the Rams.
• Thanksgiving three-day slate is its own pick → the official pick is the 49ers, since burning the Rams now commits you to the Cowboys later.

Dan: "I don't care about being sharp or not. I care about surviving and advancing."

As always, lines change, shop around. Take advantage of our FREE Odds Page and for a FULL MARKET REPORT on every NFL Game, check our or NFL HQ, exclusively for Bettor Day Insider and Premium Members. Plus our College Football HQ has matchup analysis on every game, with links directly to the Trench Reports. See both tiers →

The Bettor Day app is now available on BOTH Apple and Google Play