College Football Friday: Rivalry Week

Scott Seidenberg and AJ Hoffman preview all the big Top 25 College Football Games here on Black Friday and tomorrow with leans and Best Bets!

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Today's Games

🥚 Ole Miss at Mississippi State (Egg Bowl)

Line: Ole Miss -7 | Total: 62.5

Scott's Favorite Bet of the Week:

The Egg Bowl has gone under in eight straight meetings. Since 2006, the under is 14-3-2 in this rivalry. Ole Miss doesn't need margin here. They just want to win, grind clock, and move on—especially with the Lane Kiffin speculation swirling.

The play: Under 62.5

🌵Arizona at Arizona State

Line: Arizona -1.5 | Total: 47.5

Sometimes handicapping comes down to a simple question: which quarterback do you trust more? Noah Fifita or seven-year college quarterback Jeff Sims? Give me Fifita.

Arizona has been flying under the radar. They went into Cincinnati and played great. They pulled Baylor's pants down last week. Since the first month of the season, they haven't lost a game by margin. Meanwhile, Arizona State sees the writing on the wall—they're not playing for the Big 12.

The play: Arizona -1.5

🍑 Georgia Tech vs. Georgia (Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate)

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (neutral site) | Line: Georgia -14 | Total: 59.5

Yes, it's technically in Atlanta, but that's Georgia's building. More Bulldog fans will be in attendance. Georgia Tech sold this game for $10 million, and as Brent Key pointed out, that money helped build the roster that went 9-2.

Key is fantastic as an underdog—the numbers are insane. But Georgia is a bad matchup. They're going to take away the run, and if Georgia Tech can't run, it's going to be tough.

Georgia Tech's defense over the last three games has allowed opposing quarterbacks a 70% completion rate, 300+ yards per game, six touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a combined QB rating of 167. If that were their season-long number, it would rank 135th out of 136 teams.

The play: Georgia team total over 37.5

🤘 Texas A&M vs. Texas

Line: Texas A&M -2.5 | Total: 52.5

This is the first time Texas has been a home underdog since September 10, 2022. Look at Arch Manning over the last four games: 328 passing yards per game, 11 touchdowns, two interceptions. The early-season criticism was justified—now it's time to acknowledge what we're seeing.

Put Arch Manning's numbers side-by-side with Marcel Reed's and Manning has actually been statistically better this season. The difference? Reed has 11 wins, Manning has eight.

Here's the wild card: Does Texas A&M even need to win this game? Win or lose, they're likely a top-four seed with a first-round bye. Not having to play Alabama or Georgia in an extra game before the playoffs is huge.

Both teams will score.

The play: Over 52.5

Tomorrow's Games

Ohio State at Michigan (THE Game)

Line: Ohio State -9.5 | Total: 43.5

Everything hinges on one question: Are Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate playing?

If the two receivers who sat out last week are healthy and running around in helmets pregame, Ohio State could blow Michigan out. If they're in hoodies on the sideline, Michigan is very live.

Another angle: Michigan team total under. Bryce Underwood has struggled against elite defenses—look at the Oklahoma game. Matt Patricia (I owe him an apology after betting Ohio State under 10.5 wins this season) has built the best defense in the country alongside Oklahoma. Four straight losses to Michigan, and this one is personal for Ryan Day.

Weather note: Could be snowing in Ann Arbor. Cold, possible precipitation. That favors the under.

The play: Ohio State -9.5 (contingent on receiver health), under 43.5

Miami at Pittsburgh

Line: Miami -7 | Total: 49.5

Miami is not making the ACC Championship game, but they need to win to stay in the playoff conversation.

More importantly: Carson Beck has never played a cold weather game. He's about to play in 30-something degree weather in Pittsburgh. This is what Mario Cristobal does—gets close to something special, then finds a way to screw it up.

Pitt can run the ball. Miami won their first game outside of Florida just last week against Virginia Tech. Now they have to go to Pittsburgh in the cold.

The play: Pitt +7, sprinkle the money line

Oregon at Washington

Line: Oregon -6.5 | Total: 51.5

Dan Lanning is 1-3 all-time against Washington. He came out in his press conference this week and said this game means a lot to him personally. That's saucy stuff.

But AJ has been waiting for a team that can run the ball on Oregon, and Washington might be it. Keep Dante Moore on the sideline, control the clock. Oregon almost lost at Iowa. They almost lost at Penn State—and now we know Penn State isn't as good as we thought.

That Penn State win was supposed to validate Oregon. Now? Not so much. Washington has nothing to lose. This is their Super Bowl.

The play: Washington +6.5, lean under 51.5

Vanderbilt at Tennessee

Line: Tennessee -3 | Total: 65.5

Diego Pavia as an underdog has been one of our favorite spots over the years. But Tennessee has owned this series—six straight wins. And Vanderbilt has never had a 10-win season in program history.

If Vanderbilt wins and goes 10-2, there has to be a discussion about them for the playoff. Their losses would be at Alabama (potential SEC champ) and to Texas. If their jerseys said any other SEC name, they'd be a no-brainer.

AJ can't bet this one against the rivalry trends, but he'll be cheering for Diego and the Commodores. This is a fun one to watch.

The play: Stay away (heart says Vanderbilt, history says Tennessee)

🎯 Quick Hits Summary

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