College Football Saturday Week 6 & NFL Week 5 Survivor Picks

Another exiting weekend of football awaits. The College Football slate could be a wet one with some interesting weather in the southeast. The NFL slate gets started early with a game in London. Here are some College Football Free Plays as well as NFL Week 5 Survivor strategies.

(Jake Novakovic Free Plays 2-1 last week — 18-7 YTD +10.2 Units) Jake: I had more games circled this week and crossed several off because of the hurricane coming through the Southeast. We don't know what the weather's going to do, and weather is variance — it widens the range of outcomes on games I'd otherwise have an opinion about. The smart move was to leave those alone.

Keep an eye on the forecast before you play anything this weekend, including games I haven't touched. READ THE FULL ARTICLE

Oklahoma vs. Texas

3:30 p.m. ET · Cotton Bowl, Dallas

Oklahoma team total UNDER 15.5 -115, DraftKings

Oklahoma can't score right now, and Texas is the last defense they want to see. Since a 51-0 opener against UTEP, the Sooners have scored 10 against Michigan, 14 against New Mexico and 13 against Georgia. Held under 300 yards in all three.

This matchup has been a problem for them before. Oklahoma scored 3 against Texas in 2024 and 6 last year.

The Texas defense is legit: 7, 23, 6 and 17 points allowed, an average of 13.25. They held UTSA to 142 yards and Tennessee to 221. Dallas looks clean and sunny, so there are no excuses. Oklahoma has to earn every point.

Kansas at Utah

10:15 p.m. ET · Rice-Eccles Stadium

Utah −15.5 -105, The ScoreBet

Utah keeps covering and I'll keep betting them until somebody proves otherwise. They're 4-0 against the spread: Idaho 66-14, Arkansas 43-10, Utah State 33-0, and Iowa State 31-17 on the road. The defense is giving up just over 10 a game and nobody has scored more than 17 on them.

Kansas hasn't left Lawrence all season — all four games at home. Against the two Power Four teams they've played, they lost 38-21 to Missouri and 24-17 to Arizona State. Their wins came against Long Island and Middle Tennessee. Now the first road trip is a night game at altitude.

History: Utah is 4-0 against the spread, covering by 13.5, 19.5, 6.5 and 6.5. Kansas lost both of its games against Power Four teams, both at home. Utah has allowed 10.25 a game.

🐘 #2 GEORGIA AT #6 ALABAMA — THE SYSTEM vs THE METRICS

Alabama -1.5. Total 51.5. Both teams 5-0.

This is a system play ONLY because the favorite flipped — Georgia was favored in the look-ahead markets and as recently as last week.

📊 THE SYSTEM (since 2021)

Two top-25 teams where the LOWER-ranked team is favored over the HIGHER-ranked team:

Narrowed to Two TOP TEN Teams

(The only straight-up loss this season: Michigan losing to Iowa on the final play. Otherwise it's a perfect 6-0.)

🔴 BUT SCOTT'S ANALYTICS SAY GEORGIA

"All my metrics point to Georgia. But the market and the system are telling me to play Alabama."

⭐ AJ HOFFMAN: ALABAMA IS THE ONLY SIDE HE'D PLAY

"My power ratings make Georgia about a FIVE AND A HALF POINT FAVORITE on a neutral. So there's no home field advantage that gets me to Alabama being favored.

But Alabama is the only side I would play here. And part of it has to do with STRENGTH OF OPPONENTS."

The Résumé Comparison

"Kentucky and Mississippi State are both pretty good — both sitting at one loss, and THEIR ONLY LOSSES ARE TO ALABAMA.

Georgia's wins? Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt. THAT MIGHT BE THE THREE WORST TEAMS IN THE SEC. Plus Tennessee State and Western Kentucky. THEY HAVE NOT PLAYED A SINGLE OPPONENT THAT IS EVEN AN AVERAGE TEAM.

The blowout home win over Oklahoma looks less and less impressive every week.

This road trip to Alabama is the kind of spot where I'm looking to back the team who's ALREADY TAKEN SOME BULLETS — who's been in the firefight. Alabama fits that mold."

The Lookahead Caveat He Raises Himself

"I worry a little because Alabama has another big rivalry game on deck at Tennessee. But that's just the SEC. When you're Alabama or Georgia, you're ALWAYS going to have a rival on deck.

With both these teams having a zero next to their name, I expect the best effort from both sides."

🎯 His Actual Position

"It's Alabama or pass for me. And I LEAN TO THE OVER

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NFL SURVIVOR WEEK 5

🪟 THE FIRST PANE OF GLASS BROKE — AND WE WEREN'T ON IT

Entries remaining: 2 of 8. Didn't lose one last week. Don't think we lose one this week.

And we very nearly handed one back on Thursday night.

The Cowboys were the biggest favorite on the board. We were considering them. Roughly 48% of the people in our pools used them. Tampa Bay won in Dallas, 24–16.

Mac: "We didn't lose to what I think most people will have lost on — the biggest favorite on the board, by a significant margin. Two points."

🤠 How We Got Off the Cowboys

Mac flagged the discomfort first — a winless team on primetime football with everything to prove — but told Dan he'd understand the pick, because there was no favorite on this board he loved. Dan went with that instinct plus his own work. Two reasons:

1. He couldn't bet the team total

Dan: "I was looking at the team total the last two days, and for some odd reason I could not hit over 29.5. So I figured — if you're not thrilled about the Cowboys team total over, you probably think it's going to be lower scoring. Now what if there's some turnover variance? The problem is I don't like their quarterback, but this Cowboys defense is horrendous. If I don't think the Cowboys can score 35 this week, I'm not so thrilled on Survivor."

That's the whole handicap in one line, and it's worth stealing: for a team that can't get a defensive stop, your survivor floor is their team total. If you won't back them to score 35, you're not backing them to win.

2. The letdown smell

Dan: "Maybe it's selection bias from my own memory, but this felt like the Cowboys were awesome, the world's all awesome — it just seemed like a Cowboys letdown spot. I thought there might be some tomfoolery going on. I didn't think they'd outright lose like that, though — outside of that first drive, they struggled most of the game."

📊 The Bucs Were Due

Mac's EPA audit of Tampa Bay entering Week 5 — the case that their record was lying:

Mac: "They might be a little better than the record suggests. They'd had a bunch of turnovers earlier in the season. And finally it went the other way for them — and the other way for the Cowboys."

A couple of tipped passes, fumbles, and a kickoff return made the difference. The Cowboys remain a high-variance team, which matters because we probably still have to use them eventually.

Dan: "Still not thrilled we have them down the road, because we have to score 35 with their offense. And CeeDee Lamb got hurt — probably fine long term, but if we have to use the Cowboys and we're not confident scoring 35, they are not stopping a single soul."

Mac: "We probably will use them if we go the distance. You've got to use at least 18, 20 teams."

🇬🇧 THE JAGUARS: A FIVE-POINT MOVE IN SEVEN DAYS

Line: Jaguars −7.5 (was −2.5 last week, −3.5 right after Sunday's games)

Mac's question, stated plainly: "Are they five points worse? Are the Jaguars five points better, net net, than they were last week? Maybe. I could be convinced."

📋 What Changed for Philadelphia

Mac on the Jurgens return: "Two late-round picks with one pick coming back to the Ravens — so almost like one fifth-round pick for your starting center. Made little sense to me. Of course, he was in concussion protocol, so he wasn't playing in London anyway."

Dan: "Eagles are just bad vibes all around."

🏈 The Jalen Hurts Argument

This is the part of the segment that decided the pick.

Dan: "I think the world has finally figured out that Jalen Hurts is similar to Jordan Love — he needs a lot to go right for him to be productive. You saw it at the Super Bowl two years ago. But now the offensive line isn't very good, Saquon isn't there creating running lanes, you have mediocre wide receivers, and the tight end he absolutely needs when he has to get out of a pickle is out."

Mac's version: "He's had great performances, but he's also had absolutely loaded teams. The 'Brock Purdy can't do anything without five All-Pros' line is probably a lot more relevant for a guy like Jalen Hurts, even though his legs and his tools are more obvious. He's seemingly a pretty dependent player."

And Mac's four-game accounting: nearly lost to a Washington team that hasn't looked great, won by two; one genuinely great moment — a two-minute drill touchdown to win at Tennessee on a very hot day; then demolished by the Bears and a blown lead against the Rams. The defense is 25th in EPA. Both sides are bad.

Dan's stress test: "Do I see the Jaguars losing outside of turnovers? Even with turnovers. If their defense gets a pick six, a scoop and score, a kickoff or punt return — let's give the Eagles seven points. Am I thrilled about how they get those points? No. But I don't think they're going to lose. Hurts just cannot do anything on offense right now."

📊 The London Numbers — Both Directions

The case against overrating Jacksonville's "home field":

Mac: "If they do have a home field advantage, either it's baked into the line or it just hasn't shown up in the results lately."

The case for laying it anyway — and this is the strongest single stat in the episode:

Favorites of more than three points on neutral sites / in London: 29–6 straight up since 2003. About 60% ATS.

Mac: "You very rarely drop these games as a favorite on a neutral. You could argue it's because, much like Thursday night football — although not last night — it's a game of Jimmies and Joes. The strategy is kind of out the window. The better team tends to get to the finish line."

🎯 The Jaguars Are Legitimately Good

Dan: "A lot of people are starting to catch up on them. They're a unique team so far because they've had two games where the fourth quarter was a blowout, so the offense didn't have to do anything. Last week against Cincinnati, Burrow was somewhat moving the ball but had two very bad turnovers — threw it right to the defenders. Ja'Marr Chase got hurt, Tee Higgins got hurt, and it kind of avalanched after that."

"I think the Jaguars are a good team. They're one of the healthiest teams in the NFL. They keep getting these turnovers, and I keep telling myself the turnover luck is going to run out each week — and I'm an idiot, because I bet against them in some way, shape, or form."

The future-value question

Jacksonville hosts Houston in London again in Week 6, has a bye in Week 7, then gets the Titans in Week 10 and Week 14. That's three or four outs including this week — real reason to consider saving them.

Dan's conclusion anyway: "This line is probably starting to overreact. Am I going to run to bet the Eagles? Absolutely not."

🤠 THE TEXANS: A 0-4 TEAM LAYING A TOUCHDOWN ON THE ROAD

Line: Texans at Titans | Total: 38

Start with the historical oddity, because it's genuinely rare:

The Texans are the first team in 25 years to be 0-4 or worse and be a road favorite of a touchdown or more. Those teams: 1–4 ATS, 2–3 straight up.

Mac: "So teams lose in this spot. But 25 years ago is a whole different league. This does not happen very often."

📈 The Best Bad Team on Record

Mac, citing Aaron Schatz: "The Texans are, I think, the third or fourth-best 0-4 team of all time by DVOA — his data goes back to 1980. And it kind of makes sense when you think about how many close games, how many one-stop-away or one-score-away games they've been in against good teams, including the Bills."

🌤️ Dan's Weather Check — Nashville Is Clean

Dan: "Before we talk about the Texans, you need to monitor the weather report for this game. As we record this, it seems like Nashville is going to be fine. Wind isn't going to be an issue — about nine to ten miles per hour. No rain."

With a 38 total, this is already a low-variance game. Clean weather keeps it that way.

The two-sided case

Against Houston:

Dan: "They cannot run the ball to save their lives. If the Texans are in third-and-long or third-and-medium most of this game, I'm not really thrilled to turn it in. And their defense has not performed very well."

For Houston:

Dan: "But they played Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and the Cowboys offense — those are probably top-five to top-eight units for most of the year. They do have Nico Collins this week, and he drives this offense. Maybe this is what the doctor finally ordered: the Texans just need to play a crappy quarterback who can't do anything well, for a team going nowhere. A get-right spot."

On the Titans' side of it:

Dan: "How do the Titans win this game? Once again, with turnovers. And even with turnovers, I don't think they can do much on offense. I finally think Cam Ward is that bad. I think the world has finally figured out Cam Ward is that bad."

Mac: "Brian Daboll, offensive coordinator for the Titans, has never really excelled without a Josh Allen, or without Alabama and a guy like Tua — better Jimmies and Joes. He hasn't, that I've seen, made something out of nothing. I think the Texans do get right here."

Dan's realistic ceiling: "I think we see a similar situation to last week's Vikings-Dolphins game — the better team wins, but maybe struggles most of the way. You sweat a little, but you ultimately prevail."

Future value: thin

Week 10 at Cleveland, Week 11 vs. Indianapolis (assuming Nico plays), Week 13 at Pittsburgh, Week 14 at Washington. Houston also hosts the Giants in a couple of weeks.

Dan: "Not really thrilled with saving them. If we don't have Nico Collins down the pipeline, this team is probably borderline no-go zone. I'd like to use them."

Mac: "Nothing super lucrative like the Bills hosting the Dolphins that I'd want to save."

🐬 BENGALS AT DOLPHINS: THE WIDE RECEIVER PROBLEM

Line: Bengals −6.5 (bet down from −7/−7.5)

Mac: "Who's running to the window to bet Miami?"

Dan's answer: the Ja'Marr Chase news.

🏥 The Injury Picture

Dan's warning: "If you're not using Cincinnati this week, you need to have in the back of your mind that Tee Higgins will be having the same problem down the road."

Dan's case for the Bengals

"My guess is somebody has way bigger balls than me, because I refuse to put money on the Dolphins because they are that bad."

• Dolphins cannot cover anybody — not tight ends, not wide receivers. Maybe they stop the run
• The Bengals can't run the ball either, and seem to be giving up on the under-center stuff that has massively not worked through four games — so they'll pass, which is exactly where Miami is worst
• "The Bengals defense — I don't think they're very good, but I do think they're good enough to stop this Dolphins offense"
• With an 80%-ish Chase, plus Mike Gesicki, Chase Brown, "and the other wide receiver off the streets," Burrow should be fine

Dan: "Earlier in the week, when Chase probably wasn't going to play, I wanted nothing to do with this game. With an 80%-ish Chase, I do think Joe Burrow and Co. bounce back."

❌ Mac passes

Mac: "I kind of feel like passing on this one. We do have the Week 8 spot — and Ja'Marr Chase is such a key part of what they do. Are the Dolphins going to go winless? Possibly, I'm not ruling that out. But I feel like the Dolphins are feistier — especially with it going to be what, 85 and muggy for Cincinnati coming down there."

He also noted the near-miss from last week: "I would have been very happy if the Vikings had lost, because we didn't pick the Dolphins when everybody did. And Miami was in it — they had a couple of touchdowns crawled back."

Verdict: no play. Save the Week 8 Titans out.

🦁 THE SHARP ALTERNATIVE: LIONS AT CARDINALS

Line: Lions −5.5 | Total: 54.5

Both guys arrived at this one independently.

Dan: "To all you listeners out there, Mac and I really don't coordinate coming into this. Mac, you're funny, because this is the one I was looking at too this week."

🎯 Mac's Math

Detroit's defense is dead last in EPA per play and dead last in points allowed per game — the single worst defense in the league. That's the hole in the pick, and Mac solved it with the total instead of pretending it isn't there:

"This total is 54.5 at Arizona. I feel like the Lions are going to get 30 of those — meaning the Cardinals are only going to get 24.5. I kind of think the Lions get to the window. They're just too good of an offense. Even if they get down, even if they get bad turnover luck, I feel like they outscore the Cardinals and eventually win."

Note the symmetry with the Cowboys reasoning: Dan got off Dallas because he wouldn't back them to score 35. He's on Detroit because he would.

Dan: "Lions, same situation as the Cowboys. If they're not going to drop 30, I'm not running to turn this in. I do think they'll be able to put 30 to 35 in that range."

🏥 The Arizona Collapse Is Structural

Dan: "Last week the Cardinals lost their left tackle. And that's when they really started to struggle. They lost their right guard, the round-two pick. They'd been managing well enough, but once the left tackle went out, Jacoby Brissett was under so much pressure."

"Can Arizona keep up when Jacoby Brissett folds under pressure? Could they keep up with a backup left tackle and backup guard? I don't think so — that's where they struggled so much last week."

📊 The Cardinals Defense Has Been Cooked All Year

Mac: "They allowed 36 to Jameis Winston and the Giants — who had just scored twelve points at Tennessee. So their defense is bad. Period."

That 49ers line comes with a note: "Including two extra points that hurt you if you had a 49ers −7.5 ticket. Not saying whether or not I did."

🤔 Is This Where Arizona's Wheels Come Off?

Dan: "They won that Week 1 game. Competitive for a half against Seattle in Week 2, competitive in Week 3, competitive in Week 4. Is this where the wheels finally fall off with all the injuries? Maybe Arizona was a nice run and this is where we fall off."

Mac on Brissett: "Every year, Jacoby Brissett — I remember he had like an 80 QBR for a few weeks with Cleveland. He's remarkably competent. But is he a guy who's going to win a shootout for you? I don't think so."

Why saving the Lions doesn't work

Mac: "Are there going to be better opportunities to use the Lions? Not in that division. They're in an absolute dogfight with very competent teams — the Packers probably being the worst right now, and they could end up good when they get guys back, including Micah Parsons."

Dan's resolution: "Not much point in trying to save them, because you're going to have the exact same issue each week. Are they at least going to give up 30 this week, versus a standard 35?"

One Thanksgiving note if you're sequencing your own entry: the Lions host the Bears on Thanksgiving, and neither guy wants that spot. If you've already used the Rams, don't plan on two Thanksgiving teams.

🤔 The Rest of the Board

Colts at Steelers — off the board. "I was getting ready to come on here and trash the Colts, but it looks like a weather game, and I'm not thrilled backing this Steelers team who for some odd reason, against the Browns, just kind of stopped running and started throwing. I'm like, why are you guys throwing so much? You were doing pretty well — and then Rodgers would just start throwing."

Patriots −3.5 vs. Raiders. Pending the injury reports on Christian Gonzalez and Christian Barmore. "The Raiders have looked like a solid offense, but if New England loses two key guys, can you stop Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer? Not sure. Is Kirk Cousins playing way above where I thought he could? Absolutely. Did the Patriots overachieve last week? I think they did. Maybe they come back down to earth." Mac's framing: are they really going to lose two years in a row hosting the Raiders? Probably not.

Commanders −4. Jayden Daniels back — "not Jalen Daniels, his brother from another mother."

Falcons −3.5 vs. Ravens without Lamar Jackson.

⛰️ Broncos at Chargers: The Save

Line: Broncos −3.25

Dan flagged this as his sharp alternative and then talked himself into holding.

The home-field argument: "It's an away game — air quotes. That's going to be what, 60-40, 70-30 Denver fans?" Mac: "Probably 60-40. It's a school year. It's going to be a glorified Denver home game."

📊 The Best 2-2 Team in the League

Mac: "If you look at the Broncos schedule, it's arguably been the hardest in the NFL. Rams, 49ers, Chiefs Week 1, Jaguars. I did this before the Monday show with Scott — their opponents are 11-1 in games not including the Broncos.So they're probably the best 2-2 team in the league."

"I definitely think they have upside. Like Bo Nix has done every year, he's better later in the year than earlier — just like he's better later in games than earlier in games. And Sean Payton is the same way, a very slow starter historically. I think the Broncos are a team to hold on to. They'll have better spots than at LA."

Dan's specific reason to wait

"Sounds like Sean Payton is going to get more involved in this offense, because in the first half the Broncos are beyond incompetent at doing anything. My concern is: what if Sean Payton was more involved than we think, and he's part of the problem?"

"I kind of want to see that first. If he gets involved and the offense at least looks competent for a full game, I'd be quite happy having them down the road, because we'll have some sample size and data supporting it. But if we back them this week and they still don't do anything, I'm going to be frustrated at that pick."

Also live: the Broncos lost both their corners — "but I don't think the Chargers can actually take advantage of those weak corners." And Denver's schedule flips from brutal in the first six to eight weeks to much easier over the final eight.

Verdict: hold.

⭐ THE OFFICIAL PICKS

Pool 1: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Dan: "That's the one I'm most confident in this week. It is London. Maybe the Eagles have some pride, maybe they get that dead cat bounce — I'll take my risk this week, because I just think that team has finally hit the wall."

Mac: "It's the most 'home' of the three games — the other two are road games and this is a neutral. They should be favored. I like the momentum. I like them in London."

Mac's one caveat, stated honestly: "The Eagles are 0-4 ATS. They're not going to go 0-17 ATS — they're going to have a couple of surprises somewhere along the way. They still have a lot of talent on that roster, much more than what they've shown."

Pool 2: DETROIT LIONS (−5.5 at Arizona)

Dan: "I'm going to go a little bit different. Maybe we get another team falling off, maybe we're being foolish, getting a little too aggressive. But at some point we're going to have to go down the board. The Lions are clearly one of those teams we'll be using in our survivor leagues, and there's not much point trying to save them."

🧮 The Equity Case for the Lions

This is why the second pick isn't the Texans, and it's the most important strategic thought in the episode.

Mac: "About 48% of the people in our pools had the Cowboys tonight. That's why I kind of like picking the Lions — from an equity perspective, we made it through the first bullet, the first pane of glass breaking on most people in most contests."

Dan's read on where the field goes next: "I think the Texans will be the second-biggest selection. People don't like to get up early and watch the London game, for whatever reason. And the Eagles still have that Super Bowl prestige. I feel like most people who didn't pick the Cowboys are going to pick the Texans this week."

"So we'll get a lot of equity if Houston does drop to 0-5 and we're not on that particular pane of glass."

Read it as a system: when a huge chunk of the field just got eliminated, the value of differentiating goes up, not down. You don't spend the equity you just earned by crowding onto the next consensus chalk.

📋 The Card

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