College Football Free Plays 11/7

Week 10: Four Plays

(0-2 last week — 25-14-1 YTD +9.2 Units) Last week went badly: Arizona +3.5 lost when Texas Tech won by eight, and Florida State −6 lost outright to Clemson. Thankfully we stayed disciplined and Nebraska never made the official play list because we didn't get the 7 and they wound up losing outright. Another lesson why it's important to stay diligent. Let's bounce back on that is the best slate of College Football so far this season.

1. Oregon at Ohio State

3:30 p.m. ET · Ohio Stadium

Ohio State −7.5 -105, Caesars & LEAN: Under 46.5

This is a bet on an overreaction, and I laid the number out in Tuesday's column: DraftKings had Ohio State −14 from last Wednesday through Saturday morning, and it's −7.5 today. Seven points off for one Saturday.

Here's the detail that makes this a play rather than a hunch. That −14 was already up with Julian Sayin out. The book knew about the quarterback when it set the number. So the seven points that came off aren't about an injury the market was late to — they're about one result, a 30-18 loss at USC. There's nothing new in that cut except the scoreboard.

And one result is exactly the input the books have been over-reading all season. By my own count, cutting a favorite after a loss is now 0-for-4: Kansas State won by 11, Texas by 7, Oregon by 8, Texas Tech by 8. Every one of those teams beat the reduced number comfortably. This is the fifth instance, and it's the largest cut of the five.

Look at what the loss actually was. True freshman Luke Fahey made his first career start on the road, and Ohio State still outgained USC 464-338, ran 81 plays to 50, and held the ball 39:28 to 20:32. They settled for four field goals. Oregon, meanwhile, got outgained at home by Northwestern.

Now Fahey gets his second start at home, where Ohio State has won all four games by at least 23, and Oregon flies 2,054 miles into the Horseshoe in a letdown spot.

On The Under Lean: Ohio State under Ryan Day as a favorite with a total between 45 and 49.5 is 14 unders to 3 overs, and both of this season's went under.

2. UCLA at Minnesota

12:00 p.m. ET · Huntington Bank Stadium

Under 39 -113, Caesars

UCLA hasn't played a high-scoring game since September. Its last four finished at 32, 24, 38 and 27 points, and all four stayed under the closing number by at least five and a half. The defense is the reason: 15, 7, 10 and 0 points allowed in that stretch, and nobody has gained more than 272 yards.

The offense isn't running anyone off the field either. UCLA has averaged 22.25 points in those four games with backup Ty Dieffenbach, who has three touchdown passes since Nico Iamaleava's season-ending knee injury.

Minnesota won't be the team to change that. The Gophers have scored 20, 13, 13 and 16 in their last four, on 262, 275, 209 and 215 yards. Their last two Big Ten home games were 20-14 over Michigan and 13-10 over Iowa. Minnesota games average 123 combined plays, modestly under a normal Saturday.

I've been on the right side of this one before. When Iamaleava went down I flagged it in the column, and the Wisconsin–UCLA total came down seven points into a game that went 24. Same read, and it keeps working.

History: UCLA has gone under four straight by an average of 16.5 points. Both teams are five unders to three overs on the season.

3. Oklahoma at Florida

7:45 p.m. ET · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

Florida team total UNDER 25.5 -105, BetMGM

Florida just isn't that good this year, despite the wins over Texas and Ole Miss. The scoring since September: 17 at Missouri, 19 at home against South Carolina, 27 at Texas, 8 against Georgia — on 319 yards a game.

Jon Sumrall benched Aaron Philo against Georgia, and this week's depth chart lists both him and Tramell Jones Jr. as the starter. Sumrall says the quarterback isn't the only problem, and pointed at the offensive line: "I don't know if Tom Brady was our quarterback on Saturday if it would have helped us." Now right tackle Emeka Ugorji, who has started all eight games, is out. Leading receiver Bailey Stockton is questionable, and Vernell Brown III has missed four straight and is doubtful.

That offense now gets a good Oklahoma defense. The Sooners allow 20.8 points and 305 yards a game, six of their eight opponents have finished under this number, and cornerback Eli Bowen was upgraded to probable after missing the last four games.

History: Florida has averaged 17.75 points over its last four. Oklahoma held Michigan to 17, Texas to 24 and Kentucky to 21.

4. Florida State at Boston College

12:00 p.m. ET · Alumni Stadium

Florida State −6.5 -110, FanDuel

I laid 6 with this team last week and they lost by 12. That's where this starts, because I'm asking you to follow me back in.

Here's why I'm going: last week the Seminoles outgained Clemson 415-351 and lost 36-24 because they turned it over four times to none. Before that they scored 36 at Alabama and 28 in regulation at Miami. Ashton Daniels threw for 350 against Clemson and has 26 total touchdowns.

I also want the firing bump. Florida State fired Mike Norvell and defensive coordinator Tony White on Sunday, and Rick Stockstill — a former Seminoles quarterback — takes over. He says he wants to simplify things for Daniels.

Boston College is not good. The Eagles lost 47-2 at Duke last week on 213 yards, and Mason McKenzie has thrown for 188 yards over his last two games. They've scored 16 or fewer in four of their seven games against FBS opponents, beat FCS Maine just 22-16 at home, and will be without center Michael Crounse.

History: interim teams favored in their first game are 11-4 against the number since 2015, and won 14 of the 15 outright. The four that were favored on the road all covered, by at least 8.5.

Jake Novakovich is a contributor to Bettor Day. You can follow him on X @CashOnSaturdays. Lines move: re-check before you play. Check out our FREE ODDS PAGE

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