Week 7 Card: Four Plays
(1-4 last week — 19-11 YTD +6.6 Units) Last week was the worst of the year. And a lot of sharps I spoke to had similar tales. All that means is that this week is a bounce back week. So let's get after it.
1. Virginia at SMU
12:00 p.m. ET · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
SMU -9.5 -110, Fanatics
Virginia is banged up and it's catching them at the worst time. Cornerback Omillio Agard is out for the season with a torn ACL, and defensive tackle Jason Hammond is done for the year too. Receiver Rico Flores Jr. won't play. Safety Brandyn Hillman, linebacker Caleb Hardy and Corey Costner, who plays the SPUR spot in their secondary, are all listed as doubtful. That's a lot of a defense to be missing on the road.
The Cavaliers were already slipping before the injuries piled up. Two weeks ago they went to Florida State and lost 38-7 with 205 yards of offense. Last week they held off Syracuse 28-25 at home, and Syracuse outgained them 430 to 282.
SMU moves the ball. They've gone over 475 yards in four of five games, including 585 at Florida State and 479 at Louisville. Against a secondary missing this many bodies, I expect them to do it again.
History: SMU won 27-24 at Florida State. Virginia lost 38-7 at the same stadium two weeks ago. Syracuse outgained Virginia by 148 yards last week.
2. Arizona State at Texas Tech
3:30 p.m. ET · Jones AT&T Stadium
Texas Tech −15.5 -105, The ScoreBet
Texas Tech is 5-0 and the defense is the reason. They've given up 10, 24, 26, 14 and 7 points, and two weeks ago they went to Boulder and beat Colorado 29-7.
Arizona State has been run over every time it has stepped up in class. Texas A&M beat them 48-20, and Baylor came into Tempe and won 55-19 with 564 yards of offense. The Sun Devils have also turned it over eight times in five games — eight giveaways against a team that doesn't give games back.
History: Arizona State's two losses to Power Four teams came by 28 and 36 points. Texas Tech has allowed 16.2 points a game.
3. Washington State at Oregon State
6:00 p.m. ET · Reser Stadium
Oregon State −18 −110, BetMGM
Oregon State hasn't failed to cover all season. They're 6-0 against the spread, and the offense is rolling: 650 yards in a 56-26 win at Colorado State, then 651 in a 66-14 win over San Diego State last week. Freshman receiver Jesse Legree leads FBS with 932 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Even the two losses covered, at Houston and against Texas Tech.
Washington State can't move the ball. Against FBS teams they've scored 10, 7, 24, 6 and 16, and they were held under 260 yards in each of their last two. They're changing quarterbacks this week, with redshirt freshman Owen Eshelman getting the start.
History: Oregon State is 6-0 against the spread and scored 122 points in its last two games. Washington State is averaging 12.6 points a game against FBS opponents.
4. New Mexico at Hawai'i
10:30 p.m. ET · [TV] · Ching Complex
Under 44.5 −110, BetMGM
Hawai'i can't score. They're averaging 16.7 points a game, and their last three produced 10, 16 and 12. They average 6.3 points in the first half, with three first-half touchdowns on 35 first-half drives. They're last in FBS in rushing at 82.3 yards a game, and they've scored seven touchdowns on 20 red zone trips.
The weather helps. Honolulu calls for trade winds around 21 mph, sustained, through the whole game. I set my own threshold on this back in Week 1: fifteen sustained is where wind starts changing how a passing offense functions. Twenty-one clears it with room, and Hawai'i is a passing offense with nothing on the ground to fall back on.
New Mexico was held to 6 at Oklahoma, and Hawai'i's defense hasn't allowed more than 30 since the opener.
History: Hawai'i is 5-1 to the under this season, and four of its last five games finished under 44.5.
Jake Novakovich is a contributor to Bettor Day. You can follow him on X @CashOnSaturdays. Lines move: re-check before you play. Check out our FREE ODDS PAGE
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