> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bettorday.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # CFB Week 4 Free Plays & NFL Survivor Week 3 - URL: https://www.bettorday.com/cfb-week-4-free-plays-nfl-survivor-week-3/ - Published: 2026-09-26T10:00:11.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-26T10:00:11.000Z - Author: Scott Seidenberg - Tags: Newsletter ## College Football Saturday Week 4 & NFL Week 3 Survivor Picks *It's another great football weekend. We have 6 Top 25 matchups today in College Football, including 4 SYSTEM plays. Plus NFL Week 3 is underway, we had a nice start to the week with Thursday including our Same Game Parlay cash! It's been a horrific first 2 weeks for Survivor, let's see what Dan Rivera & Mackenzie Rivers do with their remaining entries.* --- ## College Football Free Plays *Jake Novakovich is off to a 12-5 start to the 2026 College Football season. He has 4 FREE plays written up this week. Check out the* [***Full Article***](https://www.bettorday.com/college-football-week-4-free-plays/)*and here's one of his plays.* ## 1\. Notre Dame at Purdue **2:00 pm Eastern · Peacock · Ross-Ade Stadium · (Notre Dame -27.5 / 58.5)** > **Over 58** \-110 Fanatics · (Still good at 58.5) **MY FAVORITE PLAY OF THE DAY** Purdue games are track meets and nobody has adjusted to it yet. 63 points in the opener, 74 against Wake Forest, then 90 last week at UCLA. Three games, three overs, and the number keeps climbing. The Boilermakers have scored at least 36 every time out while giving up 19, then 38, then 52\. The offense keeps producing and the defense is going the wrong way, which is exactly the combination you want on an over. Notre Dame is laying nearly four touchdowns, so they're going to be scoring. And take that seriously for a second: a 58.5 total with the Irish laying 27 implies Notre Dame around 43 and **Purdue around 15.** Purdue hasn't scored fewer than 36 all season. The market is asking you to believe this offense gets held to a third of what it's done every week so far. **History:** Purdue is 3-0 to the over. Their three games produced 63, 74 and 90 against closing totals of 56, 50.5 and 52.5 — an average of nearly 76 points against numbers averaging 53\. Last week's 52-38 at UCLA cleared the close by 37.5. **The risk:** Purdue hasn't played a defense like this one. Wake Forest and UCLA are not Notre Dame, and the Irish have been the best defensive team on my board all year. If Notre Dame holds Purdue to 17 and wins 38-17, that's a comfortable cover, a blowout, and an under — all at once. Every number in that history block was produced against opponents who couldn't stop anybody. --- # 🐊 THE SYSTEM: FLORIDA OVER OLE MISS **#21 Florida is favored over #4 Ole Miss. Line is now -3.5** ## 📊 THE SYSTEM, DEFINED **When two ranked teams play and the LOWER-ranked team (the bigger number) is favored over the HIGHER-ranked team (the smaller number) — we back the favorite.** ### Since the start of 2021 | Metric | Record | | --------------- | --------------------------------- | | **ATS** | **52-29-1 — 64.2%** | | **Straight up** | **59-23 — 72%** | | Average margin | **Winning by 7.3, covering by 3** | ### 🚨 FOUR QUALIFYING GAMES THIS WEEKEND | Favorite | Underdog | | ------------------------- | ------------ | | **#21 Florida** | #4 Ole Miss | | **#18 Michigan** | #17 Iowa | | **#20 Oregon** | #12 USC | | **#24 Mississippi State** | #19 Missouri | --- ## 🔍 THE FLORIDA CASE ### The Offense | Metric | Florida | | ---------------------- | ------------------------------- | | Offensive EPA per play | **99th percentile** | | Points per drive | **99th percentile** | | Offensive success rate | 95th percentile | | Explosiveness | 91st percentile | | National ranks | **3rd in points, 4th in yards** | **The Buster Faulkner effect: an offense that was 102nd in the country last year is now third in yards.** ### ⭐ The Matchup That Decides It **Jadan Baugh:** 2nd in the country in rushing yards, **1st in touchdowns (8)**, averaging 161-181 yards over his last four games going back to last year's Florida State game. **458 yards in his last three.** **Ole Miss run defense: 159 yards allowed per game on 4.1 per carry — down in the hundreds nationally.** ## 📉 THE LETDOWN TREND THAT SEALS IT **Since 2021: a top 25 team that won OUTRIGHT AS AN UNDERDOG against another top 25 team, and is now a dog again in another top 25 matchup:** | Situation | Record | | ------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------- | | All | **4-21 SU · 6-19 ATS** — failing to cover by **11.3 per game** | | **As an AWAY dog** *(Ole Miss)* | **1-8 SU · 2-7 ATS** — failing to cover by **12.1 per game** | --- ## SuperContest Card ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/09/Screenshot-2026-09-25-at-11.10.45---AM.png) *3-4 Contest card last week, 10 points through 3 weeks. (First place has 17)* --- ## NFL SURVIVOR WEEK 3 ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/09/Survivor-Cover.png) [***Listen to the Podcast HERE!**](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/episodes/dan-macken-survive-the-nfl/?ref=bettorday.com) ### 🎉 THE PICK WE DIDN'T MAKE **Mac:** "When I woke up, I was under the impression we were going to use one of our entries on the Packers — big home favorites on Thursday, needing the win. **But you talked us out of it. And I was so glad when I woke up**. --- ## 📐 THE SURVIVOR MATH BEHIND IT **Mac:** "**Winning in Survivor gives you about a 0.33 fractional win**, because you're supposed to win — as Fezz always says — **two-thirds of the time.** **But NOT losing, when you thought you had an entry out, is worth 0.67\. It's TWICE as much benefit to your Survivor equity to not lose in a given week than it is to win.**" --- ### ⚰️ THE AUTOPSY: TWO ENTRIES ON TAMPA BAY **Mac:** "**I staked our reputation — two of our entries — on Baker Mayfield. I thought he'd have a bounce-back game. None of it came to fruition.** **They could have won. The lightning was bad fortune — I think they would have driven and scored that final touchdown, much like the Eagles did to beat the Titans. They had the momentum, arguably. They just didn't get it done.**" --- ## The Pattern Connecting Tampa and Green Bay **Mac:** "**The same question as Jordan Love: do they have a great offensive coordinator and play caller? And when they DON'T, do they have a quarterback who can carry them?** **The Bucks lost Liam Coen. They also lost Dave Canales. Both are having pretty good success with other Southern NFL teams — and both offenses are looking good. Now you have Zach Robinson, who's never really had a successful play-calling year.**" ### 💰 The Baker Contract Theory "**And you have Baker Mayfield, who's already been paid. This is like an NBA type situation — he's probably gotten the last big contract of his career. Three years, $165 million. That was the big bag, and he got it.** **I don't think he doesn't CARE anymore — but he's having some fun out there. He's letting it loose, scrambling himself into sacks. He's not locked in the way he was when he was on the bubble of *am I going to be in the NFL next year.* Maybe he clicks back in. It's not clicking back in anytime soon.**" **And on the other side:** "**I also got Deshaun Watson wrong.** His stats suggested he'd been the worst quarterback in the NFL the last few years — **and well before that he was one of the best. The truth looks like it's somewhere in the middle. He's just an okay-to-bad quarterback on an okay-to-bad team, and those teams can win on any given Sunday against a team not as inspiring as the Bucks.**" --- ## 🎯 THE ONE THAT WORKED **Dan on last week's sharp alternative:** "**I really liked the Panthers pick. I actually bet it with my own money as we got closer — minus 2.5 at -118\. That was a ROCKING CHAIR winner.**" --- # 📊 WHERE WE STAND | Week | Entries | | ------------ | ------- | | Start | **8** | | After week 1 | **5** | | **Now** | **3** | **Mac:** "**We go from eight to five — that's about two thirds. Five to three is 60%. We're right on par with what's expected. But you know us: we want to do much, much better. We want to get to week ten, week fifteen, and make some noise.**" *(The official podcast pick is *1-1* on the season after the Bucs.)* --- # ⭐ THE OFFICIAL PICK: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2 entries) **Chiefs -10.5 at Miami** --- ## The Case **Dan:** "**I don't think we've truly grasped how bad the Dolphins are going to be this year. What do they do WELL?**" **Mac:** "**Whenever they say on the broadcast *we talked to the coach, they play hard* — you look at the first play and the last play and they're playing just as hard. That's what I say about my Pee-wee team that's 0-11\. That is not a huge compliment for NFL players.**" ### The Nightmare Scenario, Priced **Dan:** "**Three turnovers — are we so sure the Dolphins can even score three points in that situation? I'm not.**" --- ## 🗓️ The Schedule Check | Week | Chiefs Game | | ------- | ------------------------------------------------- | | 4 | at Raiders | | 5 | **BYE** | | 6 | vs Chargers | | 10 | at Atlanta | | 11 | at Arizona | | **12+** | **"One brutal game after another"** | | 18 | vs Raiders *(a game they might not be trying in)* | **Dan:** "**I don't mind saving them for another week in a couple of pools. But I just don't see how they lose this game.**" **Mac:** "**I don't love any of those spots.** At Raiders — I'd rather have them at Arrowhead. **At Chargers — okay, they're bad now, but they probably don't go 0-8\. They're talented enough to get one of these wins against the Seahawks, Bills, or Chiefs. I wouldn't love throwing the Chiefs against them.**" ### ⚠️ The One Concern **Dan:** "**We mentioned last week we want to fade road teams coming off overtime games. They don't do well historically.** But my guess is Kansas City takes care of business. **They NEED this win to keep the ball rolling. If it were mid-season and a sandwich game, maybe I could see them being lackadaisical. It's week three, coming off an overtime win against the Colts. I don't think they mail it in.**" **Mac's supporting note:** "**Andy Reid does not drop these games as big favorites in September. Maybe later in the year — but in September his teams are pretty locked in.**" ### 😬 The PTSD **Dan:** "**Picture this. A few years ago we made that deep run — 15-point favorites with the Buffalo Bills playing the crappy Jaguars, led by Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence. And we lost. So there's a little PTSD here.**" --- # ⭐ THE SPLIT: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (1 entry) **Seahawks -7.5 at Washington** *(moved from -6.5)* --- ## The Case **Dan:** "**It sounds like Sam Darnold is going to play. I was kind of hoping he WOULDN'T — I was hoping they'd ramp it up, because Drew Lock is good enough in this situation versus the Commanders.** **The Commanders might be missing more guys — the final practice reports aren't out yet. If Darnold is largely good to go, I feel pretty confident.** **And let's say Darnold gets hurt again — we have a capable backup plan. Marcus Mariota with this offensive line, at 32 or 33? Not looking forward to that if you're a Commanders fan.**" --- ## 🏟️ THE HOME FIELD FACT **The Commanders are the WORST home team in the NFL since 1997, when FedEx Field opened — by a lot.** **Mac:** "**The Chargers are close, but no — the Commanders are the worst. At least with the Chargers, they don't have a real home. What's the Commanders' excuse? That's just pathetic.** **I will always, until I'm proven wrong, contest that the Commanders have no home field advantage.**" --- ## 🛡️ The Low-Variance Argument **Mac:** "**The Seahawks defense is so consistent. They've allowed what, 17 points this season, against two not-terrible offenses. Probably the best defense in the league, maybe the best defense in a couple of years. That makes a really low-variance type game.** **You mentioned the nightmare where they have three turnovers — the Commanders might get 10 points out of that. They might get SIX.**" **Dan's version:** "**If Darnold or Lock does one glorified arm punt, one turnover at midfield, and one turnover deep in their own territory — probably only a field goal there. Two field goals max. I just don't trust the Commanders to do anything even with those turnovers.**" ### The One Hesitation **Mac:** "**Whenever there's a line move about a guy coming back, I always have the knee-jerk reaction of *okay, but is he BACK?*** Darnold's injury wasn't something we'd think would make him not himself. **But the line did move. I'd like to see it before I assume he's back to being Sam Darnold.** **And Marcus Mariota, as backups go, has been pretty good. Not spectacular, but decent.**" *(The Penix counterexample from Thursday: the line moved 2.5 to 3 points and *he looked great — his fifth 80+ QBR game in thirteen starts, which is kind of crazy for someone we don't consider that good.*)* --- # 🚫 THE TEAMS THEY PASSED ON ## 🏈 49ers (-8.5 vs Arizona) **Mac:** "**This is a division game. The Cardinals have played them tough before. Maybe the Australia jet lag catches up a week after the fact.** I keep going back to that **week six to ten stretch** where I'd like to lean on my 49ers. **Hold them off the card.**" **Dan:** "**Week eight is their bye and they'd be hosting the Raiders after. They're banged up right now. Fine with kicking that can down the road.**" --- ## 🦬 Bills (-7.5 vs Chargers) **The line history: 2.5 in May/June → 3.5 before the season → 7.5 now.** **Mac:** "**And it's not like anyone got hurt. All the players we expected in June are here.** Of course I think the Bills are better than expected and the Chargers worse — **I've made those mental upgrades and downgrades. But it seems like too much. The Chargers are not going 0-8\. They might go 1-7\. This might be the one they sneak out.**" **Dan:** "**I understand why it moved, but it seems like an overadjustment. At some point the Chargers are going to figure something out.**" ### The Future Value **Dan: "They play the Dolphins TWICE. Fine kicking that can down the road."** **Mac:** "**Josh Allen is 14-3 in his career against the Dolphins. This is probably the worst Dolphins team he'll face — I don't think he's going 14-4.** **And that rivalry is a much bigger deal in Buffalo than in Miami. They just care about football more. It's colder, there's no South Beach. Even though it's supposedly the Super Bowl for the Dolphins — because they have nothing else to play for besides upsetting their rivals — I think it's still a bigger game for Buffalo.**" --- ## 🦁 Lions (vs Jets) **Dan:** "**I don't trust that secondary. I do think Geno Smith and the Jets are good enough to maybe make you sweat.**The Lions should get some offensive linemen back, but we're recording Friday morning and I need to see that report. **I just don't know what this Lions offense IS yet. We have a two-week sample, one week not very good and the other without any offensive linemen. Pass for now. I need more sample size.**" --- ## The Near-Misses on Sharp Alternatives **Dan: "I don't have a super strong sharp alternative this week. All three of these are kind of FORCED."** | Team | Why Not | | ------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **Ravens** | "If I was confident Zay Flowers is playing — I think they can name the score and drop 35 on that bad Cowboys defense." | | **Texans** | "If they had Nico Collins I'd make that argument. I kind of like Houston still, even without him." | | **Panthers** | "**You're buying at a high point now. Last week was the right spot.**" | | Bengals | "I don't trust their offensive line and Joe Burrow right now. Plus you can use them against the Browns, or the Steelers later." | --- # ⚠️ BUYER BEWARE ## 🦅 Mac: EAGLES AT BEARS (Monday night) "**The Eagles have played two teams that haven't won a game — the Commanders and the Titans — and played them both down to the wire. They could theoretically be 0-2 against two of the worst teams in the league, and we'd have a very different opinion of them.** **In the rainstorm, Ben Johnson's offense didn't look like it typically does in a dome. And there are no reports of crazy weather in Chicago for a late September Monday.** **If you're just looking for a dog — TEASE THEM UP TO 10.5\. I kind of like the Bears on Monday night, to be honest with you.**" ### Dan's Response (and the news that changed it) "**It sounds like Tyson Bagent is in concussion protocol still.**" "**If it's Case Keenum — a third-string quarterback, 39 years old, playing Vic Fangio — it's not something I'd be excited to put money on. But I wouldn't feel great picking the Eagles either, because the Eagles might be a little FUGAZI.** **That Eagles team looks off. I don't know if it's the coordinators. They don't have a run game. Saquon practiced in a limited role but he's coming off the stinger — what if he gets hurt again? I don't really trust Jalen Hurts. I know it's the Bears defense, but I could just see the Eagles offense struggling on a Monday night.**" --- ## 🟣 Dan: THE MINNESOTA VIKINGS "**I know the Bucs just lost to the Browns. Kyler Murray is an upgrade over Carson Wentz. But how much is Kyler going to truly SIT in this Kevin O'Connell offense and slice and dice a defense? I don't trust Kyler to sit in the pocket — it's not what he's really done. He likes to run around.** **And I'm not a big fan of backing quarterbacks off that first game back from a concussion.** **Plus, the Vikings host the Miami Dolphins next week. So if you're thinking the Bucs suck — just wait one more week and use Minnesota against the Dolphins.**" *(Dan's other one: the Rams at Denver — "*Puka's probably not going to play, and the Broncos have had a great September home field advantage.*")* --- # 📋 WEEK 3 SUMMARY | Category | Pick | | ---------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------ | | **⭐ OFFICIAL PICK** | **KANSAS CITY CHIEFS** | | **The 3-entry split** | **2 Chiefs · 1 Seahawks** | | **Buyer Beware (Mac)** | Eagles at Bears — *tease the Bears to +10.5* | | **Buyer Beware (Dan)** | Vikings — *wait a week and use them vs Miami* | | **Save for later** | 49ers (weeks 6-10) · Bills (vs Miami twice) · Lions · Ravens | | **No-go zone** | **The Packers. Indefinitely.** | --- ## 🗣️ ON TAKING THE CHALK **Mac:** "**You might say — I listened to a half hour podcast on Survivor and they told me to take the biggest favorite on the board.** **Well, if someone had told you to buy Microsoft in 1992, or Apple in 2008, or Nvidia in 2019, you might say *everyone's buying that, everyone says they're the next big thing.*** **Yes. Sometimes the sharpest thing to do is say the consensus, on this particular occasion, is RIGHT. Let me back up the Brinks truck.** **I'll diversify a little. But sometimes the consensus is the right pick.**" --- *As always, lines change, shop around. Take advantage of our* [***FREE Odds Page***](https://www.bettorday.com/odds/) *and for a FULL MARKET REPORT on every NFL Game, check our or NFL HQ, exclusively for Bettor Day Insider and Premium Members. 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